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“Not all horses who drift get beaten and not all horses who shorten up win.
I regard remarks like this as yet another form of aftertiming tbh.”What I am saying is why did the National favourite drift like he did when in receipt of 12 pounds? Was he expected to win yesterday in light of trainer pre race comments? I could’ve backed Vanillier yesterday at 7-2 if I wanted to but to me on that specific day and on that specific ground IAM was being backed as the likelier winner and it was a watching race. Cromwell is good at targeting races in the UK and I expect Vanillier is being readied to peak in April. The National is highly unlikely to be a run a minute off of standard and IAM’s jumping is going to be tested.
“near graded horse now for the GN”
Not really, the winner just needs to be young enough and well handicapped. Corach Rambler (who I backed), for example, was a 146 rated handicapper and a single figure age.
At the moment I am on Vanillier (151) on 10 stone 8, Monbeg Genius (147) 10 stone stone 4, Kittys Light (146) 10 stone 3, and Panda Boy (146) 10 stone 3. All single figure ages. Could one of these 4 be low enough in the weights and have a few pounds in hand over 4 miles 2 over the National fences come April? Quite possibly. Or maybe there’s another one I have missed (there is still Cheltenham to look at).
There are some good horses rated higher like those 11 stone +, the question is that when Spring time comes, usually away from deep Winter ground, whether they are young enough, jump well enough, and have enough pounds in hand to give the weight away to everything in this type of race.
The last 2 winners have/are contesting the Gold cup , they race is set up now to get the class horses to run , Mike who is the unexposed young horse this year ?
“The last 2 winners have/are contesting the Gold cup”
They had/have to run in better races as they are not well handicapped any more for the handicaps so that is understandable.
“Mike who is the unexposed young horse this year”
One of my present 4 picks I hope ;o)
They don’t have to Mike , they’ve earned the right to , and in one case won two grade 2s , which are your 4 Mike
“Sorry meant near” – gutted tbh.
“happy to entertain though” – you did, sir!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Not all horses who drift get beaten and not all horses who shorten up win”.
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There was good reason for Vanillier to drift. Ground and (mostly) fitness. When the going was (by race times) confirmed to be very, very testing… And if the trainer had said he wasn’t fully fit and that may have been confirmed by paddock watchers.
When working out a 100% book I used to back it or even go in again if the horse drifted out to what my book indicated was a good price. However, I’ve changed my mind on that. Unless I can see no possible reason for it drifting I tend to stay out.
Yesterday I made Arclight 5/2 fav for the Pendil. And had a small bet @ 3/1 (wasn’t my main bet) and he drifted out to 9/2. One of the reasons why I made him so short was I was expecting improvement, another was he’d won in “soft” last time out so should have acted on the going… even though most of his form was on a sounder surface. I do think some horses might “act” on the ground in that they are capable of showing form occasionally on it but are less consistent on it. He’d also raced fairly prominently. There was a doubt about the trainer’s form.
So the drift may have been something to do with a planned change of tactics (raced in 4th), on going that’s less suitable (most of form on a sounder surface)… And probably the main thing – less likely to show his best because the trainers horses are not right.
Of course with the drift in the betting it also indicates a larger possibility (if not probability) I may well have got Arclight’s chance wrong in my workings out. Fair enough, another reason not to go in again.
Drifters still sometimes win, but their chance beforehand is much more likely to be similar to SP / odds near the off than the odds it drifted from. ie Even if a horse has form that indicates a horse has a better chance than SP, a horse badly drifting indicates it is LESS likely to show that form. The market tends to find out.
Value Is Everything“They don’t have to Mike , they’ve earned the right to”
Off their revised marks trying to win handicaps would’ve been difficult, so yes they’ve earned the right to have a go at a higher grade.
My present 4 are in my post that you responded to.
I wouldn’t call Vaniller unexposed but good luck , looking at the race from two different angles but that’s what the forum is all about
Sorry to gut you Ian but Im sure I’ll utter something of stupidity or irrelevance soon enough , my mind is a mush of Cheltenham just now , work are trying to talk to me about fleet planning/parking for the summer …. It’s going in one ear and out the deaf one
“I wouldn’t call Vaniller unexposed but good luck”
Thanks. Gavin Cromwell did say he thought Vanillier would get 11 stone so the horse might still have some pounds in hand going by that comment. He does get a nice pull in the weights with Corach Rambler. We will see.
Trainer of Monbeg Genius after the Kelso race…
“He’s fine but it was disappointing really, we were expecting a better show than that, to be fair.
He’ll have to come on a lot, but he’s come out of it fine and we might even give him another spin at Cheltenham, we’ll see. It wasn’t the plan but he might come on a bit more.
The practice might help, he didn’t jump great yesterday, he didn’t do anything that we hoped he would, so let’s see how he is.
He’s in at Cheltenham, so we’ll have a look and see.”All may be not lost if he goes to Cheltenham and runs big.
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