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I’m going to say that Ballabriggs will be top weight off 160 so anything rated under 136 won’t get in or will be running out of the handicap.
Abbeybraney[/color:1wtwoytm] – OR129, hasn’t won a chase worth £17k+, not good enough
According to Pete[/color:1wtwoytm] – 2 victories in the same season over fences, not ideal
Alfa Beat[/color:1wtwoytm] – interesting contender, but only 8
Always Right[/color:1wtwoytm] – a very interesting contender
Always Waining[/color:1wtwoytm] – maybe not quite good enough, but a course specialist & not a great deal not to like
Another Palm[/color:1wtwoytm] – a dreaded 7yo and only 7 starts over fences
Any Currency[/color:1wtwoytm] – rated only 131 and hasn’t won under rules in a field of 13 or more, PB RPR is just 143. Not good enough.
Apt Approach[/color:1wtwoytm] – a very interesting contender. Question mark about his jumping ability.
Arbor Supreme[/color:1wtwoytm] – unseated his rider the first time round Aintree, fell last year when well out of it
Backstage[/color:1wtwoytm] – huge gamble on him last year which failed to pay off. Doubt he’s good enough.
Ballabriggs[/color:1wtwoytm] – 10lbs higher than last year’s winning mark and he’s not having an ideal prep (IMO) by only having a start or 2 just weeks before the race. Not for me.
Ballyvesey[/color:1wtwoytm] – 7yo and rated 125. Has been winning tin pot 5-runner novice chases round Market Rasen. Not good enough.
Becauseicoudlntsee[/color:1wtwoytm] – fell at the 2nd last year. Also fell LTO and in 2009 so big question mark over jumping ability. Only rated 140. Best race he won was only worth £10,000. Can’t have him.
Black Apalachi[/color:1wtwoytm] – could easily have won it 3 years ago. But now 13 and hasn’t run in nearly 2 years.
Blazing Tempo[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8 and has never won beyond 2m 6f. Only run over 3m+ once finishing 4th.
Burton Port[/color:1wtwoytm] – would require a training performance of Vincent O’Brien proportions after not having run in nearly 18 months.
Calgary Bay[/color:1wtwoytm] – fell at the 4th last year. Difficult to really count him out, but 2 victories this term means he’s a stone higher than in December. Not great. Similar track to the Doncaster one he excels at.
Cappa Bleu[/color:1wtwoytm] – Only 5 starts over fences.
Chicago Grey[/color:1wtwoytm] – a very interesting contender
Cooldine[/color:1wtwoytm] – winless since the RSA. Looks a different horse. Beaten 122L in 3 starts this year. Apparently goes Foxhunter chasing now.
Crescent Island[/color:1wtwoytm] – his starts at 3m+ since 2009 read P5UPP. The 5 was being beaten 47 lengths. Surprisingly he hasn’t won over 3 miles+ before.
Deep Purple[/color:1wtwoytm] – hates big fields. All 12 of his NH wins have been against 9 rivals at most. Won his maiden against 12 rivals, but otherwise 4600094P46 in fields larger than 10.
Fair Along[/color:1wtwoytm] – simply too small.
Giles Cross[/color:1wtwoytm] – rated just 138, could struggle to get in. Hasn’t won anything of note but has been placed in 3 hard slogs in mud over 3m 6f+.
Hector’s Choice[/color:1wtwoytm] – hasn’t even attempted 3m let alone win over it yet. Also only 8.
Hello Bud[/color:1wtwoytm] – should be off collecting his pension
Hold On Julio[/color:1wtwoytm] – impossible to even consider Alan King running him. Just 3 starts over fences.
In Compliance[/color:1wtwoytm] – 13th beaten 98 lengths last year – only his 4th attempt at 3m+. The others ended in being pulled up, being beaten 13L into 5th and beaten 10L into 3rd. Jumping also suspect.
Junior[/color:1wtwoytm] – off a mark now 19lbs higher than his last run over fences 11 months ago. Would be astounding were he to win, but wouldn’t put it past him.
Killyglen[/color:1wtwoytm] – rated only 141. Fell last year while in contention. Has been pulled up 4 times while running over further than 3m. Would also be nice to see him winning against bigger fields.
King Fontaine[/color:1wtwoytm] – OR127, not good enough & won’t get in
Le Beau Bai[/color:1wtwoytm] – I’ve seen faster snails. He cannot have the ground soft enough.
Little Josh[/color:1wtwoytm] – his record over 3m+ is 2F66. Beaten by 24, 39 and 38 lengths respectively.
Massini’s Maguire[/color:1wtwoytm] – interesting contender
Midnight Chase[/color:1wtwoytm] – a hell of an ask to win this off 163. Would also question him away from Cheltenham.
Midnight Haze[/color:1wtwoytm] – All victories against small fields, no wins of note, rated only 137
Minella Theatre[/color:1wtwoytm] – lowest rated horse in the race on 123.
Mon Mome[/color:1wtwoytm] – now rated 145 could be well-in. Won in 2009 off 148. Ignore all his starts on soft/heavy ground (he loathes it) and his chase form since the 2008/09 season reads 211P3F2.
Neptune Collonges[/color:1wtwoytm] – sulks when he’s not leading, has never won against a field bigger than 11
Neptune Equester[/color:1wtwoytm] – rated just 134
Niche Market[/color:1wtwoytm] – has tried to win the race twice, PU the first time, beaten 23L into 5th last time, not good enough although 7lbs lower
Northern Alliance[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 1 career run that gives him a chance, winning a 3m handicap chase at Listowel off 140 in 2009.
On His Own[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8, only 6 chase starts
Organisedconfusion[/color:1wtwoytm] – 7yo
Our Island[/color:1wtwoytm] – also 7 and only rated 130
Pearlysteps[/color:1wtwoytm] – 3 wins, all against single-figure fields, all worth sod all and only 7 chase starts in total
Planet of Sound[/color:1wtwoytm] – could easily have a big shout, lovely profile for the race. Finished 3rd in the Arkle – Don’t Push It fell in the Arkle while travelling beautifully.
Postmaster[/color:1wtwoytm] – rated only 139, all 9 career wins against 11 rivals at most, not a single one worth more than £10k
Prince de Beauchene[/color:1wtwoytm] – very nice profile for the race
Psycho[/color:1wtwoytm] – you’d need to be a psycho to back a horse who’s never run over further than 2m 6f (finished 13th beaten 54L)
Qhilimar[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8, few victories worth sod all money, all against fairly small fields
Quantitiveeasing[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 7
Quel Esprit[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8yo, only 6 career chase starts, fallen in 2 of them and hard to believe Willie will risk him
Quiscover Fontaine[/color:1wtwoytm] – 4th in the Irish National but otherwise not run further than 2m 5f, only 8yo
Rare Bob[/color:1wtwoytm] – all 4 wins on soft/heavy ground but has a couple of good bits of form around Aintree
Roberto Goldback[/color:1wtwoytm] – all 5 career wins have come in pretty small fields and very doubtful he’s good enough
Roulez Cool[/color:1wtwoytm] – not run in nearly 700 days.
Saddler’s Storm[/color:1wtwoytm] – rated just 126 in Ireland, probably won’t get in. 11th in the Kim Muir behind Junior beaten 81L and PU in the Irish National.
Schindler’s Gold[/color:1wtwoytm] – rated just 130, no chance of getting in
Scotsirish[/color:1wtwoytm] – doubtful stayer, possibly very fortunate to win his only attempt at 3m after being left in the lead. Will also run in the Cross Country race at Cheltenham. Don’t like him at all.
Seabass[/color:1wtwoytm] – 3 victories now on the trot and the handicapper will give him hell for it. Only attempts over 3m+ resulted in 13th and beaten 11L 3rd. Only once has not run on soft/heavy ground.
Shakalakalakalakalakalakalakalakalakalakalakaboomboomboomboomboomboomboomboomboomboomboomboom[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8, handicapper possibly has his measure already
Shakervilz[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 7 chase starts, 70P on his last 3 attempts at 3m+ over fences
Smoking Aces[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8, but nice profile. Added bonus of being sired by Our Vic. PB RPR 135 over fences. Maybe one for the race in a couple of years.
Some Target[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8, rated only 132
State of Play[/color:1wtwoytm] – will be placed, not more. Now 5lbs lower than his Hennessy winning mark and 10lbs lower than his 1st run in the race when finishing 4th. 40/1, near certainty to place at 9/2.
Stewarts House[/color:1wtwoytm] – 00P2 over 3m+, otherwise interesting
Sunnyhillboy[/color:1wtwoytm] – can be expensive to follow. Only 1 run over further than 3m, finished 3rd in the Irish National. 3lbs higher than that run. Also sired by Our Vic. Very interesting.
Swing Bill[/color:1wtwoytm] – meh. Just meh. Seems like a possible contender I suppose but I very much doubt it.
Synchronised[/color:1wtwoytm] – would have to be a superstar to win this off 168
Tartak[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 2 attempts at 3m+ in a career lasting 32 starts. Finished a 3 1/4L 2nd and 71L 7th. Simply won’t stay and looks finished anyway.
Tatenen[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 8, 6 attempts over 3m+; 39UP37 Beaten 8 3/4, 74, 40 and 55 lengths. Ran 707 inbetween his 2 wins at Ascot. 13lbs higher for those.
Tharawaat[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 7
The Midnight Club[/color:1wtwoytm] – 1lb lower than last year and now has experience of the Aintree fences, very interesting
The Package[/color:1wtwoytm] – hasn’t run in nearly 500 days. If anybody can prepare him for the National though, it’s Pipeline. Potentially off an extremely attractive mark of 139.
Treacle[/color:1wtwoytm] – highest career winning mark 122, rated only 132 now
Uncle Junior[/color:1wtwoytm] – another likely one to run in the Cross Country
Vic Venturi[/color:1wtwoytm] – very interesting profile, has had horrible luck the past 2 years
Viking Blond[/color:1wtwoytm] – only 7
Weird Al[/color:1wtwoytm] – difficult to see JP letting Synchronised run off 168 which would mean this fella would inherit top weight. Not gonna happen for him, even if running off 11-6.
West End Rocker[/color:1wtwoytm] – interesting profile but I don’t think he’s good enough
Wymott[/color:1wtwoytm] – what on earth has happened to this horse?
There are 2 horses in the betting on my shortlist that I think are being completely overbet for one reason for another. And those are;
Both 16s/20s because of wide-margin victories in decent National trials. Unfortunately that doesn’t help them, it hinders them and I’m not going to be backing either of them.I’m also not going to be backing any 8yos as only 1 pops up per decade and I’d rather be with the 9/10 trend than the 1/10 trend, otherwise I’m not going to be able to narrow my list down.
And since Bindaree won, 8yos have the following record;
53 ran. 9 in the top 5. 3 between 6th and 9th. 11 finished 10th or worse. 10 fell. 8 unseated. 11 pulled up. 1 refused.
The 8yos are;
But if you don’t like any of the 8yos in the race, it’s worth looking at the 9 who finished in the top 5.5 of them were beaten by more than 10 lengths (actually the distances range from 14 to 39 lengths).
Of those 9, 6 of them had run over at least 3m 6f before. 1 had run in the R&SA chase. The other 2 had no previous marathon experience.
And looking at 2002 and Bindaree, both he and the runner-up were 8 – and both had run in that season’s Welsh National.
So in this instance, Quiscover Fontaine has run over 3m 5f which is as good as 3m 6f, whereas Smoking Aces has also run over 3m 5f and Alfa Beat has run over 4m. Still don’t fancy their chances.
I also have big question marks over some of those on my list;
So that’s all the blue horses on my shortlist gone;Always Right – 3lbs out of the handicap when finishing 3rd in the Scottish National last season. Would’ve beaten Beshabar otherwise (although Merigo would’ve beaten them both). Highly progressive form & a wonderful Grand National profile.
Always Waining – he has the course form (14F1614) but he’s had 33 chase starts & looks completely exposed. His form over further than 3m reads 482171PPPF8704 – 1 victory at Aintree, the other in a 5-runner field where 2 were pulled up.
Apt Approach – I liked him very much for the RSA before he jumped a twig owing to his Champion Bumper run. Mullins said pre-Cheltenham that he could run in the 4-miler. All 6 career wins have come on soft/heavy ground. His runs on ground with good in the title; 69FU, although that’s probably not a fair reflection of the quality of those runs. Seems to need to dominate, which I’m far from sure he’ll be able to.
Chicago Grey – here’s one who will definitely stay the trip extremely well. Very impressive winner of the 4-miler, but his form since then has been absolutely dreadful, yet he’s only been dropped by 1lb – 2lbs higher than the The Midnight Club. The winner of the 4-miler at Cheltenham is also very often very overbet the following season in the National races and always fails.
Massini’s Maguire – he’s had his fair share of injury problems and his run at Ascot LTO was not an encouraging National prep. Only been since twice in last 2 seasons.
Mon Mome – huge chance at the weights. Have to hope Smith doesn’t raise him by much for the Aintree factor. Has improved since winning the race in 2009.
Planet of Sound – should run a huge race (1352 over 3m+, all coming in excellent races) but rated 159 which will put him very close to top weight. Would have to give the Gold Cup 3rd Mon Mome a stone.
Prince de Beauchene – won at Aintree last season but effectively 10lbs higher since he had a 5lb claimer that day. Very unexposed at the trip though and will be towards the bottom of the weights.
State of Play – he’s just too exposed to be considered a viable winner, but I’ll happily include him in tricasts
Sunnyhillboy – something about this horse makes it extremely difficult for me to fancy him. Won off 127 2 years ago and has been steadily raising in the weights since without coming close to winning. Should relish a stamina test being by Our Vic but seems to have attitude problems. McCoy doesn’t seem to like him either as from his last 6 starts, McCoy chose to ride a different horse for JP 3 times and was beaten by Sunnyhillboy on all 3 occasions.
The Midnight Club – good 6th last year on his debut in the race – Hedgehunter was destined for 4th when falling the year before he won it. Blundered the 3rd & was hampered badly 4 out last year. Should really have gone much closer and will improve for that experience. The ground was also lightning quick last year which he won’t have appreciated.
The Package – having been off for so long, you just have to play the percentages and say he’s not going to be ready in time for the race.
Vic Venturi – has had appalling luck in the race the past 2 years, being effectively brought down while going extremely well 2 years ago and then brought down at the 2nd last year. Has high class form in the book and is by the right sire in Old Vic. 10lbs lower than when being brought down at the 17th while going very well. Destroyed Black Apalachi the time before that in the Bobbyjo Chase and he was also extremely unlucky not to win the National in 2009.
So I think I’m going to have to narrow it down to 6 runners for the time being, just to get my ante-post portfolio going. And I’m going to go with;
Always Right – perhaps he’ll fall short of the quality required, perhaps not. Has finished in the top 5 in a National and that’s the kind of achievement you simply must not underestimate in a race like the Grand National.
Apt Approach – I selected Mon Mome to win the 2009 Grand National the day before the 2008 race. I changed my mind 3 weeks before the race and it cost me £17,000. I thought Apt Approach would win the RSA and I followed him closely. If I stopped following him now and he won, I don’t know what I’d do.
Mon Mome – this horse owes me £17,000 and the handicapper might have given him a chance of paying me back. Has superb form on quick ground and has undoubtedly improved since the National.
Prince de Beauchene – possibly a spanner in the works. Could be anything.
The Midnight Club – last year’s experience could be priceless
Vic Venturi – has the quality and the pedigree. Needs the luck now.
Their relative weights and prices to one another should Planet of Sound carry top weight;
Planet of Sound 11-10 (159) – 33s / 38
Apt Approach 11-1 (150) – 40s / 60
Chicago Grey 11-1 (150) – 28s / 27
The Midnight Club 10-13 (148) – 25s / 27
Massini’s Maguire 10-13 (148) – 66s / 110
Always Right 10-12 (147) – 33s / 38
Mon Mome 10-10 (145) – 40s / 48
Vic Venturi 10-9 (144) – 50s / 60
Prince de Beauchene 10-8 (143) – 33s / 26
Sunnyhillboy 10-7 (142) – 40s / 60
Always Waining 10-5 (140) – 40s / 55
State of Play 10-5 (140) – 40s / 55
The Package 10-4 (139) – 50s / 70There’s a colossal amount of money available on Massini’s Maguire between 90 and 110 so he’s a definite non-runner. Goodness knows why they bothered entering him.
Excellent posts, Zarks, although i don’t agree with some of the opinions on the horses
confused – who do you have as top weight – Ballabriggs or Planet Of Sound ?
Massini’s Maguire – can’t have anything by that sire over extreme distances. Just doesn’t happen.
Lots of others you can rule out by looking at their breeding. Many three milers who empty on the last circuit.
Chicago Grey – like the horse, backed it before, but he does get steep at his fences and with a big jockey like Carberry, he’s made a couple of mistakes at crucial times. Also, too much weight i.m.o
Quiscover Fontaine is a future National winner but it might be a year too soon.
as many will know every year i do the thread on national entries which i update to weights when time comes and then those withdrawls, this is a thread to look at entries, whereas the ongoing thread to discuss further is also on the forum
ths was first list of entries posted on the forum and i will continue to do this, as i have for a number of years now
vf
I’ve used Ballabriggs as my top weight in all my analysis, the weight table at the end is just something to show what weights my horses would carry in relation to one another based on their British/Irish ORs.
I’m not a colossal fan of using NH pedigrees to see if a horse will stay a trip or not personally.
Did however do a little bit more search after posting last night and found that Planet of Sound and The Package are British bred so I can forgot those. Always Waining is also too exposed with all 6 chase wins coming in handicaps.
Sunnyhillboy hasn’t won a chase worth £29k (hasn’t won a chase won half of that either) and neither has Apt Approach.
The Midnight Club also hasn’t, nor does he have a 3rd win but I’m extremely confident or him putting the latter right today.
Which of my blue/green horses would you rule out on pedigree?
What you think OA? Personally I think it’s a very uninspiring list of entries, but I’m sure I’ll change my mind in the coming weeks.
I knew my original main fancies, Fabalu, and Triggerman weren’t going, but I’m very happy to see Seabass in there. Very happy. Already on at 33’s, I hope they go for it. No doubt they won’t.
Blazing Tempo would be another of intereset, but I’ll have a proper look tonight, and dig a few more out once the weights are published.Moring VtC
You know, I’m a little underwhelmed at the mo. No real surprises in there and nothing leaping out at me. Obviously, the weights will tell us more, but I have no strong fancies just now. Would love SoP to run another big race, but I think it might be asking a bit much.
Have just noticed some heroic efforts by Zarkava up above (well done, top work!) so will have a read and see if they spark anything.
It’s quite possible Ballabriggs could be the first to win two Nationals since Red Rum. Prominent runners seem to have an advantage these days and idles in a finish. That idling may well mean he had more in hand last year than it seemed. Will wait to see what weight he’s given. Top few in the weights usually have an incentive to run by giving them a few pounds less than their "official" mark. But does that apply to Grand National winners? Doubt it.
My short list might be added to:
Ballabriggs, Shakalakaboomboom, The Midnight Club, On His Own, Chicago Grey, Niche Market, Midnight Chase, Pearlysteps.
To me, it is wrong to suggest Shakalakaboomboom is handicapped out of things. Good second in a top handicap implies he’s still improving. Stamina is an obvious worry being by Anshan, but jumps really well, has good Aintree experience when 7th in Topham and acts on good ground.
In last year’s National The Midnight Club didn’t jump as well as he can (also hampered). Seems to have been trained all his life to get a good handicap mark in this race. Racing over inadequate trips. Going back a few years, in the Spa (3m nov hur) pushed along early before staying on really well to be placed. Then the following year same result, staying on all too late in the Jewson at even shorter. Second in the Thyestes last year before winning the Bobbyjo. Although 11 years old, hasn’t had much racing and still unexposed over longer distances.
On His Own was mightily impressive in this year’s Thyestes. Encouraging breeding to suggest he should stay. By Presenting who’s a fair influence of stamina from one of the best stamina Irish female lines, the "Shuil" family. Gone up 18lbs for winning "on his own", but progressive and acts on good ground.
Chicago Grey was a long way third behind Zaidpour in a 3 mile hurdle last time. Not a bad run, obviously outpaced. Is it just me, or has he been placed this season to get a good handicap mark for this? Given plenty to do in two runs at Cheltenham after an encouraging reappearance at the same track. Unseated when a close third. Usually a good jumper and proven on good ground.
Niche Market has a good record over these fences and goes particularly well on a
sound
surface. Dropped 4 lbs for finishing 22 lengths second to West End Rocker on
Heavy
ground in the Becher. He’s better than that.
Midnight Chase is just an ideal National type, sound jumping prominent runner who stays well. Said to be a "Cheltenham specialist", but a stiff track suits him at 3m1f to 3m4f. 4m4f on a flat track should be equally to his taste. Ignore his runs earlier in the season, trainer now in much better form. Trouble is owners aren’t keen and Gold Cup is main target.
Pearlysteps stayed on really well when chasing home According To Pete in Peter Marsh. Long way behind Chicago Grey in 4m National Hunt Chase, but made a bad blunder at the 5th and stable going a lot better this season. Further he’s gone, the better he’s looked recently and fair chance of staying. Does need to improve his jumping though.
Value Is EverythingWhich of my blue/green horses would you rule out on pedigree?
Of the
Massini’s Maguire – already covered.The Package – has won over 3m2f and performed well enough over further but i class him as a Bewleys Berry. Might get round but never a bet.
Planet Of Sound – the same, although on the Distaff side there is Double Silk and Dubacilla, both thorough stayers. However, Kayf Tara’s i’d strike a line through.
Always Waining – same – a 3 miler.
Prince De Beauchene – you sound keen, and he looks interesting in these 3 milers but over a National trip i just couldn’t back him. The breeding suggests he just won’t see it out.
I’ll go through more over the weekend
Always Right is interesting. He stays 4 miles as he’s proven it. On the Dam’s side you have National winners including Scottish winner Belmont King and Grand National winner Rhyme ‘N’ Reason.
Could see him going well with Reveley on him.Zark
Of your final 6 two are 12 years old.
Only one 12 year old has won in the last 15 years and only 3 in the last 30 years.
For me that would be enough to reduce your list to 4
Cheers OA, my sentiments entirely, glad it’s not just me. I’ll be on State of Play on the day of he makes it there, but agreed, it would be a big ask for a repeat.
PS….Zark, your summary made for some good reading, excellent stuff.
Sacred One,the more you go off
Sunnyhill Boy
the more i fancy him,no matter how you look at it he’s well handicapped and is trained and owned by a couple of maestro’s at prepping one for a big un! They dont come much bigger than the Grand National and 40/1 is just toooooooooooo big!
Shakalaklaklakalakalaka
will do just that and why he’s shorter than
Calgary Bay
beggars belief!
Do we need two threads on the National?
Do you need to back 2 horses in a 3 horse race? Misery draws!
Well I thought The Midnight Club’s ‘effort’ earlier was abysmal. He’d have been giving 19lbs to Leanne in a handicap, but she was only receiving 7 and she’s still beaten him by 5 1/2L. For argument’s sake say she ran to her personal best of 139. That’d put The Midnight Club on 122 to go alongside his 140 LTO (which was an extremely generous 140). An atrocious effort quite frankly, especially for a horse whose 7 career victories have come on soft or heavy with one of them over today’s C&D.
In my eyes this horse has absolutely no chance of winning the Grand National.
There seem to be enough negatives for me to eliminate Planet of Sound as well. It’s also pointless including State of Play because I won’t be backing him. So moving forward my shortlist is now;
Apt Approach
Chicago Grey
Always Right
Mon Mome
Vic Venturi
Prince de BeaucheneNenni, it’s a fair point and there have also been a distinct lack of 12yos who’ve been placed over the past few years, but there’s no way I’m giving up on Vic Venturi yet. He ticks every single box.
Chicago Grey was a long way third behind Zaidpour in a 3 mile hurdle last time. Not a bad run, obviously outpaced. Is it just me, or has he been placed this season to get a good handicap mark for this?
It’s not you. Unfortunately it simply hasn’t worked either. Dropped 1lb since his NH Chase win.
Chicago Grey was a long way third behind Zaidpour in a 3 mile hurdle last time. Not a bad run, obviously outpaced. Is it just me, or has he been placed this season to get a good handicap mark for this?
It’s not you. Unfortunately it simply hasn’t worked either. Dropped 1lb since his NH Chase win.
I think it’s to protect his mark, not necessarily fool the handicapper and hope he drops it.
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