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If the ground does come up genuinely soft I would want to be siding with the lower weighted horses.
Vic Venturi currently available at 110 on Betfair and 20.0 to be placed is running off 10-0 from an OR of 137.
In 2009 he won the Becher impressively on soft ground, going away at the finish and carrying 11-12 from an OR of 148.
In 2010 he was still right there when hampered and unseating the jockey at the 20th fence. He was carrying 11-6 from a mark of 154 and was sent off at 25/1.
In 2011 he again ran off 11-6 (OR 156) when taking another prominent position but being brought down at the second fence.
Since that race he’s finished second in the Punchestown Gold cup and won two points. If you forgive him his only other race LTO when he was heavily eased when beaten in a hunter chase behind subsequent Cheltenham winner Salsify you’d have to say that there is no real evidence that age has caught up with him yet.
Can he win it ?. Probably not at the age of 12 but given more luck in running he’s worth an interest at the prices available off a mark much lower than the last two runnings.
At the other end of the weights, I think Ruby has made a mistake passing over Neptune Collonges and I will definitely have some sort of interest in Synchronised.
Lee
Vic Venturi misses the cut, at present. Needs a few to drop out before he gets in for the race.
With all this rain i wonder if the Welsh National winner, Le Beau Bai could sneak a place.
Where did you get that from ?
Race card number 40 according to the RP
On racing Post website this lunchtime – in the article about Burton Port
"One of five horses on 10st will miss the cut for the race as things stand at the moment. They are Hello Bud, In Compliance, Midnight Haze, Vic Venturi and Viking Blond"As it’s now 8 hours old, maybe it’s out of date.
Watch out – some people obviously think soft ground at Aintree = West End Rocker/Giles Cross will win National. Bookies must be rubbing their hands at current prices.
I notice the speed figures on the Racing Post card vary widely e.g. Seabass is rated 84 whereas Giles Cross is 158. I know it’s not a sprint, but surely there must be something in them?
Swing Bill at OR140 Topspeed 168 appears best handicapped on speedrating.
Anyone fancying Giles Cross should take a price soon, if rain keeps falling has a cracking chance. Shame Denis cant do the weight but he should get equally as good a ride from Black Apalachi.
Looking forward to the Aintree meeting now.
According to BBC Weather there’s rain in the area of Liverpool all week. Giles Cross will be very well suited by give in the ground. Likely to be at least good-soft and
IF
it came up soft or heavy would be one of (if not THE) favourite/s. I just got on in time earlier today @ 28/1 VC with their enhanced win odds. See they’ve now discontinued that market and 16/1 is the best price available. Even that could prove big by off time.
Value Is EverythingNot sure i want to see rain all week ,i don`t trust this lot that run the National nowadays.. I can see them calling it off or postponing if it went bottomless.
vic venturi is number 40 see my entries/weights thread
vf
On current ratings Hello Bud would miss out if and its a big if they all stand their ground.
Can’t understand why some soft ground horses (who will be suited by the increased test of stamina) are not being backed.
According To Pete still available @ 40/1
Le Beau Bai still 40/1
Neptune Collonges 33/1
and Black Apalachi 50/1Along with Giles Cross, Synchronised and West End Rocker (who are now at the front of the market); they look the stamina laden soft/heavy ground horses.
Anyone who likes exactas should seriously consider boxing these 7 horses now.
Value Is EverythingCan’t understand why some soft ground horses (who will be suited by the increased test of stamina) are not being backed.
Perhaps there is more to winning a National than just being able to handle soft ground?
Not so sure the rain will help Synchronised as he isn’t very big and his massive improvement has coincided with him running on quicker ground. Add to that his big weight.
Can’t understand why some soft ground horses (who will be suited by the increased test of stamina) are not being backed.
Perhaps there is more to winning a National than just being able to handle soft ground?
Not so sure the rain will help Synchronised as he isn’t very big and his massive improvement has coincided with him running on quicker ground. Add to that his big weight.
Of course there is more to the National than the ground. But the ground makes it even more of a test of stamina. Therefore, now the rains have come it isn’t enough to back softt/heavy ground horses; they’ve also got to have abuntdant stamina too.
Synchronised won the Midlands Grand National (4m1f110y), one of only 3 to finish on heavy ground. He’s also got a rounded action. I think it is more likely the good ground he’s improved on is a coincidence. On heavy ground it’s true each pound of weight is worth more in distance than it would be on good. But even though Synchronised is top weight, he’s also one of the best handicapped horses. Having been let in lightly by Phil Smith in his "encouragement" of top weights to run; and then showed improved form at Cheltenham. Being so small, soft ground may actually help. Remember Bonanza Boy? The slower they go, the more time he has to jump. But I agree Stilvi, even with soft ground Synchronised’s jumping frailties make him a poor bet at current prices. West End Rocker is also (imo) too short despite ideal conditions.
If I were having just one bet each way it would have to be Giles Cross. Stays, acts on soft/heavy and the best jumper in the whole field.Value Is EverythingBut I for one remember only too well the year Earth Summit’s price dropped like a stone in the run up to the race when it was clear the going was set to be soft.
and the move turned out to be correct.
It’s not just a case of being of being able to handle soft ground, it’s that coupled with the increased emphasis on stamina and a light weight as it’s surely harder to lug a big weight in soft ground for 4m 4f.
Add in the fact the Giles Cross likes to dictate matters so hopefully stays out of trouble and it’s very easy to see why he could start favourite – and given the change in conditions, justifiably so IMO.
Lee
But I for one remember only too well the year Earth Summit’s price dropped like a stone in the run up to the race when it was clear the going was set to be soft.
and the move turned out to be correct.
It’s not just a case of being of being able to handle soft ground, it’s that coupled with the increased emphasis on stamina and a light weight as it’s surely harder to lug a big weight in soft ground for 4m 4f.
Add in the fact the Giles Cross likes to dictate matters so hopefully stays out of trouble and it’s very easy to see why he could start favourite – and given the change in conditions, justifiably so IMO.
Lee
Ah yes WilsonL, Earth Summit, get in my son!
Backed him in the week leading up to the race, 16/1 if I remember. Would’ve been bigger had Alan Potts not got there just before me.
Value Is Everything
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