- This topic has 622 replies, 90 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Been doing some more code breaking / number crunching to try and get my list shorter and have resorted to a very rash statistic. I have looked at how many chase starts the last 18 winners had before winning at Aintree. I have then divided them into their respective age groups and identified the average number of chase starts for National winners aged 8 (15), 9 (16), 10 (19), 11 (11) and 12 (26).
I have applied these numbers (with a margin of error of 3) to the shortlist and have been left with these names…
Midnight Chase
Roberto Goldback
Chicago Bay
According To Pete
The Midnight Club
Le Beau Bai
Vic Venturi
Abbeybraney
Saddlers StormAdmittedly my confidence in this list isn’t as strong as it was before being shortened up, however it’s worth a try. After all if the winner does indeed come from this list then we might just be a big step closer to never losing a Grand National again!
Chicago Grey not Bay!
I’ll be dancing on the streets of Wrexham if ABBEYBRANEY won, I have a speculative punt on him after having a bizarre dream that he won a few months ago, has to get in first though! ROBERTO GOLDBACK has a nice weight and has the class to figure, whilst Chicago Grey is a strong stayer and likes good ground so he’d have a good chance as well.Some
breaking news
…
Favourite Prince De Beauchene misses the National. From the RP site…
"Prince De Beauchene disappointed in a bit of work during the week," he said. "We had him checked out and the veterinary examination revealed that he has a stress fracture of the ilium in the hip area.
"It will mean about eight weeks box rest and, unfortunately, there will be no Aintree for him this year."
Synchronised guaranteed favoritism after this news, but the real question now is… who does Ruby ride!?
That’s sad news, he’d have been a worthy favourite and added to the race. Second one of mine to come out after Niche Market. I’ll never learn…
Cappa Bleu (33/1) and Ballabriggs (18/1) are the two of mine still in. And just gone in for Becauseicouldntsee at 25/1 (VC enhanced win odds).
Career best effort last time, despite a slow pace (which he set) at 3m1f on good ground not placing much emphasis on stamina. 4½ lengths second receiving 2 lbs from Sunnyhillboy in Kim Muir (same terms here). Becauseicouldntsee has a bit to make up on winner, but he’s well handicapped himself and proven at as far as 4m. Second in 2010 National Hunt Chase. Acts on good and soft ground. Two falls in form figures doesn’t inspire confidence. Only got as far as second fence in last year’s race when wanting to get on with things; but generally jumps better than that. Displayed a good technique and only one slight mistake at Cheltenham. Grand National tends to favour those ridden prominently.
Value Is EverythingSome
breaking news
…
Favourite Prince De Beauchene misses the National. From the RP site…
"Prince De Beauchene disappointed in a bit of work during the week," he said. "We had him checked out and the veterinary examination revealed that he has a stress fracture of the ilium in the hip area.
"It will mean about eight weeks box rest and, unfortunately, there will be no Aintree for him this year."
Synchronised guaranteed favoritism after this news, but the real question now is… who does Ruby ride!?
I’ll be surprised if Ruby chooses
THE MIDIGHT CLUB
after what his comment last year just after finishing.
Ruby Walsh (The Midnight Club, sixth): "I was struggling before we were hampered heading to the final bend. We nearly fell at the third and after that he was jumping a little too big, but we just weren’t good enough."
I’ll be surprised if Ruby chooses
THE MIDIGHT CLUB
after what his comment last year just after finishing.
Ruby Walsh (The Midnight Club, sixth): "I was struggling before we were hampered heading to the final bend. We nearly fell at the third and after that he was jumping a little too big, but we just weren’t good enough."
Reading between the lines of that Ruby quote, isn’t this be more like the true meaning?
"I don’t want to say anything positive, because then the handicapper is more likely to drop his mark".
True though, The Midnight Club hasn’t really jumped or travelled with great fluency this season. Seems attractively handicapped, but On His Own and Seabass looking other alternatives for Ruby.
Value Is EverythingForgot about Neptune Peter. He’s certainly an outsider I like. Thrown-in at his best and ran best race for some time when behind Giles Cross. Well handicapped even on that form. Jumps well. Can spit the dummy out if crowded, but very genuine in a finish. Hopefully will get his favoured good early position, if so, could the old boy break Nicholls’ duck?
Value Is EverythingWould someone explain to me why Junior is so well facncied, he just doesn’t have the racing background to suggest a National winner. What have I missed?
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
I’ll be surprised if Ruby chooses
THE MIDIGHT CLUB
after what his comment last year just after finishing.
Ruby Walsh (The Midnight Club, sixth): "I was struggling before we were hampered heading to the final bend. We nearly fell at the third and after that he was jumping a little too big, but we just weren’t good enough."
Reading between the lines of that Ruby quote, isn’t this be more like the true meaning?
"I don’t want to say anything positive, because then the handicapper is more likely to drop his mark".
True though, The Midnight Club hasn’t really jumped or travelled with great fluency this season. Seems attractively handicapped, but On His Own and Seabass looking other alternatives for Ruby.
In my view (for what’s it’s worth) I think Ruby best chance lies with
and I can’t see any other Willie Mullins horses been good enough.
As for The Midnight Club I hope he doesn’t hurt himself but I don’t think it’ll finish.
This is just my view.
Would someone explain to me why Junior is so well facncied, he just doesn’t have the racing background to suggest a National winner. What have I missed?
His Kim Muir win last season and David Pipe’s bullish comments are probably are what have led to his battling favouritism.
I myself can’t see it. Won’t jump well enough and i reckon might find himself getting tired turning for home.
Would someone explain to me why Junior is so well facncied, he just doesn’t have the racing background to suggest a National winner. What have I missed?
His Kim Muir win last season and David Pipe’s bullish comments are probably are what have led to his battling favouritism.
I myself can’t see it. Won’t jump well enough and i reckon might find himself getting tired turning for home.
That’s his only win over fences in 2 years. Ran poorly at Newbury, mid division in Ascot Stakes. I really don’t see him taking to Aintree’s fences, and even if he does, he hasn’t the stamina or strength to fight it out over the last mile. His 2nd in the Grimethorpe was in a poor quality field. OK, he’s consistnt, but he’s basically a novice over fences.
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
Finally come up with my 4 to back.
Synchronised. Stays, jumps, quality undoubted. Weight is only question mark, but if Rummy could do it, Gold Cup winner who’s already won over 4m2f should be able to.
Ballyvesey. Good jumper over Aintree fences. Should stay, e/w bet
Giles Cross. Not super quality but better the longer the trip, well handicapped, e/w bet
Alawys Waining. No problem with these fences, should feel at home, can stay, Peaks at this time of season. And already won Topham twice. e/w bet
3 to avoid
Junior. He ran in the Ascot Stakes last year. That’s not the credentials of a National winner. Would have been better off aimed at the Roseberry at Kempton!
West End Rocker. Too many "tailed off when pulled up" in his stats. Unreliable and runs better in small fields.
On His Own. Won’t stay, poor jumper. Trainer should have entered him for a hunter chase at Catterick or somewhere instead
???
Ballabriggs. Could turn out to be another regular top 4 finisher,State of Play. Would love to see him win. He won’t, but wouldn’t that be a fairytale and a half
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
My three to back purely on certain trends I think could be most reliable:
Killyglen
West End Rocker
SunnyhillboyI’ll be surprised if Ruby chooses
THE MIDIGHT CLUB
after what his comment last year just after finishing.
Ruby Walsh (The Midnight Club, sixth): "I was struggling before we were hampered heading to the final bend. We nearly fell at the third and after that he was jumping a little too big, but we just weren’t good enough."
Reading between the lines of that Ruby quote, isn’t this be more like the true meaning?
"I don’t want to say anything positive, because then the handicapper is more likely to drop his mark".
True though, The Midnight Club hasn’t really jumped or travelled with great fluency this season. Seems attractively handicapped, but On His Own and Seabass looking other alternatives for Ruby.
In my view (for what’s it’s worth) I think Ruby best chance lies with
and I can’t see any other Willie Mullins horses been good enough.
As for The Midnight Club I hope he doesn’t hurt himself but I don’t think it’ll finish.
This is just my view.
I hear what you say Red Rum…a few have said that Seabass won’t stay. I know the arguments, most of his races have been at shorter than might be seen as ideal, and I know this is just my gut instinct speaking, but I think he looks like a horse that will handle further. I like the way he finishes off his races.
I know it is a bit of a leap of faith, but I’m prepared to go with him, and I have taken the 20s before it disappears. It’s still there with Ladbrokes and VC, but i don’t think it will be there long, especially if Ruby decides to ride him.
I think Ted Walsh knows his onions, having trained a National winner, and if he is sending him over then that’s as much of an indication that I need.
It’s shaping up to be the type of race where you could pick 10 horses, and still not get a place. Good luck guys.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.