- This topic has 622 replies, 90 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
form updated from today results always waining unplaced and pearly steps pulled up
vf
I would love to see Synchronised run at Aintree. No Gold Cup winner has ever been better suited to the Grand National. Already run very well twice at 4m2f, so stays. Jumps soundly, only one fall (unlucky too). Also won a Welsh National. Will he take to Aintree fences. But Ballabriggs….never lost any race longer than 3m1f. Mr consistant. Last 16 races – 7 wins, 5 2nds, + 340F. Good jumper, stays, trained by a McCain, could he be the one to break the jinx on previous winners. Giles Cross good outside bet.
prediction…Prince de Beauchene – "In touch with leaders, fell 1st"
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
Giles Cross won’t get 4 1/2 miles.
Already been placed in a Midlands and an Eider, albeit some way back, and has won over 3m4f twice already this season.
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
Giles Cross won’t get 4 1/2 miles.
Already been placed in a Midlands and an Eider, albeit some way back, and has won over 3m4f twice already this season.
Giles Cross won’t get 4 1/2 miles
After filtering all the current entries through my foolproof National winner system; i found myself left with no less than 26 horses… far too many! I added another three things to look for in the definitive list of criteria and am now down to 15… still too many! I haven’t backed all of these (backed those in bold), but all i can tell you is that the winner is in this list… SOMEWHERE!(?)
Midnight Chase
Neptune Collonges
Chicago Grey
According To Pete
Always Right
Rare Bob
The Midnight Club
SunnyhillboyKillyglen
Le Beau Bai
Swing BillGiles Cross
Vic Venturi
Abbeybraney
Saddlers StormAlways Waining and Postmaster have entries that COULD get them onto that list depending on their performances. So we’ll see on them.
Just want to say about Calgary Bay that he has got the National written all over him, however it’ll be his first run since January which is just too long for me. Love this horse to bits, but you want a horse who’s had a run in February or March.
Can I ask what criteria your system is based on to get this list or is it a trade secret? I quite like the look of Chicago Grey, stays at least 4m and has a nice weight.
For you, Rich… i shall reveal all.
Now, before we get started i wanna just say that there MIGHT be a chance that one or two horses might slip through the net. Maybe i didn’t check their form properly or misread something etc, but this very formula has produced the winner for me for the last two years and after doing further revision found that it fits the bill almost perfectly for every winner since 1989! I say almost perfectly, but on one or two instances there is just one thing missing (i.e Miinnehoma having only two runs in the season or Red Marauder not winning a 25f chase – but considering the ground, these are anomaly years anyway
)Chuck everything that hasn’t won a chase of at least 25f.
Chuck everything that hasn’t had at least 3 runs during the season.
Take out horses under 8 years old
Chuck anything that hasn’t placed in the first three at least once in their last 3 runs
Must have had a run in Feburary or March.
Look for a horse who has less than 5 falls in their career
Chuck anything that didn’t win a chase as a novice
Look for a horse with 10 or more chase startsYeah i know it’s all a big stat rage, but hey… facts don’t lie. And i’m a stats person anyway. I’ll probably go back over the entries at the end of the month just to make sure
For you, Rich… i shall reveal all.
Now, before we get started i wanna just say that there MIGHT be a chance that one or two horses might slip through the net. Maybe i didn’t check their form properly or misread something etc, but this very formula has produced the winner for me for the last two years and after doing further revision found that it fits the bill almost perfectly for every winner since 1989! I say almost perfectly, but on one or two instances there is just one thing missing (i.e Miinnehoma having only two runs in the season or Red Marauder not winning a 25f chase – but considering the ground, these are anomaly years anyway
)Chuck everything that hasn’t won a chase of at least 25f.
Chuck everything that hasn’t had at least 3 runs during the season.
Take out horses under 8 years oldChuck anything that hasn’t placed in the first three at least once in their last 3 runs
Must have had a run in Feburary or March.
Look for a horse who has less than 5 falls in their career
Chuck anything that didn’t win a chase as a novice
Look for a horse with 10 or more chase startsYeah i know it’s all a big stat rage, but hey… facts don’t lie. And i’m a stats person anyway. I’ll probably go back over the entries at the end of the month just to make sure
Nothing wrong with trends Peter if they help you narrow the field down to a shortlist. The only one I’d query I have bolded. Trainers now often run over inadequate trips or over hurdles to protect the chase mark and keep the horse on the go.
I think the National may go to a Welsh trainer this year. I think Cappa Bleu has an outstanding chance. I like Always Waining (backed him for the Topham)but worry about the 4 1/2 miles and just hope he gets home safe.
I’m looking at my short(ish) list of
Chicago Grey – Think this race has been on Elliots mind for sometime and this horse has been campaigned with protecting his mark in mind – won at Cheltenham off 147 now rated 150. I believe the Scottish National last year may have been an add-on as he came out of the festival ok, but the Cheltenham race may have taken more than they realised.
Killyglen – Arghh! Frustarated at last years fall 5 out having backed him at 66/1. Looking back at his record – normally a safe jumper – only fall was in the GN last year. Agained campaigned with this race in mind and comes here again with a good chance. Got to try again….
Cappa Bleu – Backed this after his last run at Ascot. Has beaten some useful stayers including Merigo (Scottish National Winner) earlier in this season at Haydock (liking for the Merseyside air??
)The others I’m thinking of but not backed yet are:
West End Rocker – has won over the fences and another who is a good jumper. Unlucky last year – but can Alan King win a National??? Mmmnn..
Rare Bob – Has been placed in a Beecher Chase previously and although a bit of a dodgy jumper, 40/1 looks about right. Worried that the ground may be too quick but then a lot of Irish horses have to run on softer ground. feel this could be a wee bit of a plot horse?
Always Right – Talented but very frustrating individual. Could this be the year he puts his head in front?
Ballabriggs – Not very original I know but with the McCain factor I think has to go on most short-lists or at least considered a serious threat. Now 11 and may have some of these opponents improve past him.
Just my ramblings…..
My shortlist comprises of 3:
WIN (25s):
EW (25s):
EW (40s): I really would love to see ACCORDING TO PETE top off a superb year for Malcolm Jefferson, 2 festival winners and then a good show in the National would be awesome for this very likeable trainer.I’m very keen on Rare Bob and have been backing him for some time. I don’t think he’s a dodgy jumper- handled these fences well in the Beecher. far from disliking it I think he wants better ground these days. Lovely quiet prep, nice run last day when not given a hard race at Naas- even the current 40/1 is far too big IMO.
Having got the winner last year it would be nice to follow up but nothing caught the imagination ante-post and I can’t see a great deal of value now. Probably best to see if the Gold Cup horses run – if they do no bet and if they don’t perhaps a little on Ballabriggs to repeat might be the best suggestion. Junior looks a particularly dreadful price at shorter than a horse who has actually won the race. If he doesn’t take to the challenge it could be money down the drain after a few fences. Assuming there is no significant rain Organisedconfusion and Mon Mome could be the best of the outsiders.
If they get some water I’d be a big fan of
Neptune Collonges
. He’s run some very creditable races this year and he looks like he needs the trip to get his head back in front. He will go from the front (if he gets there and can stay there) and that’s a big plus in this race. I backed him straight after his last run and would hope I’ll get a run. It’d be great to see him run well regardless
ive with 1 pick have picked the last 4 winners out of 5 and this years winner is KILLYGLEN.
ive with 1 pick have picked the last 4 winners out of 5 and this years winner is KILLYGLEN.
Are, so that’d be another 2001 National, everyone falling except Killyglen and one other.
My favourite horses - Red Rum, Spanish Steps, Proud Tarquin, Esban, Go-Pontinental, Barona, Charles Dickens, The Dikler, Astbury, Black Secret, Vulgan Town, Huperade, Well To Do, Crisp, Quintus, Argent, Colebridge, Pearl Of Montreal, Nereo, Sonny Somers, Tubs VI, Tartan Ace, Red Candle, L'Escargot, Bula, Beau Bob, Rouge Autumn, Rough Silk, Frodo, Deblin's Green, Prince Tino, Eyecatcher, The Pilgarlic, Captain Christy, Mr Midland, Interview II, Credit Call, My Virginian, Flush Of Diamonds, Scout, Money Ma
Vic Venturi not entered in the Topham, so the National appears the main target now? Hope so. Very excited about a horse with his class and weight. All he needs is a bit of luck!
Been doing some more code breaking / number crunching to try and get my list shorter and have resorted to a very rash statistic. I have looked at how many chase starts the last 18 winners had before winning at Aintree. I have then divided them into their respective age groups and identified the average number of chase starts for National winners aged 8 (15), 9 (16), 10 (19), 11 (11) and 12 (26).
I have applied these numbers (with a margin of error of 3) to the shortlist and have been left with these names…
Midnight Chase
Roberto Goldback
Chicago Bay
According To Pete
The Midnight Club
Le Beau Bai
Vic Venturi
Abbeybraney
Saddlers StormAdmittedly my confidence in this list isn’t as strong as it was before being shortened up, however it’s worth a try. After all if the winner does indeed come from this list then we might just be a big step closer to never losing a Grand National again!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.