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Convinced myself.
So now on:
Niche Market 33/1, Cappa Bleu 33/1 and Prince De Beauchene 10/1.Snap, though I have CB at 22/1 and PDB at 25/1. NM is my main hope (and biggest payout!)
Re. WER – will he be as effective on better ground? All his form is on soft. Does jump well though.
WER has 2 wins and 2 seconds from 6 runs on good. His obvious liking for the course a serious oversight by bookies in his price, imo
True, but AK has openly stated he has a preference for soft, that’s the only negative for me. Form is there for all to see.
Though he has won on Good going, the majority of his winning form is on softer. His sire’s record is quite conclusively bad so it is impossible to read anything from that as if he was a typical French Glory it would be straight forward to dismiss him as lacking the class to win the race.
Phil Smith has framed the race in favour of Synchronised at the expense of everything else and has (imo) made a complete mockery of the race even before any events take place on course.It doesn’t matter if the majority of Prince De Beauchene’s form is on soft ground. When his best run for Johnson was on good it proves he acts on it. That run also being at Aintree at this meeting. To dismiss a horse for "lacking the class to win" defies logic EF, when he’s proven to be well-handicapped. Prince De Beauchene has already proven not typical of French Glory’s progeny in the Quality stakes and probably doesn’t need to improve further to win. Not that it’s out of the question, given Mullins record with ex-Johnson horses.
Synchronised is well-in on official ratings, doesn’t mean every other horse is poorly handicapped.
Value Is EverythingMark TT wrote….
I know where you’re coming from, but Papillon had won a 3 mile chase as a 6 year old before finishing second in the Irish National – much better form than Seabass, who has yet to win at that distance.
That’s what i mean about the price – it makes little sense to shorten that much after winning a race everyone thought it could win over a distance it’s proven at.I think it’s yet another example of the bookies robbing people blind and ‘ creating ‘ gambles that aren’t happening. I doubt there’s that much money on the horse at this stage and his price is a joke.
One placed run over 3 miles and he’s one of the Grand National favourites – it’s ridiculous.I absolutely agree with you on the odds plunge Mark. The race showed he was well in himself, but it should not have moved the market the way it did. He was hardly hiding under a bushel having won his last 6 races, so it told little more than we knew. It maybe emphasised his battling qualities to get back up just before the post, that impressed me a lot, but I think you are right that the bookies used it a bit.
Maybe it might just come back to haunt them, now that would be a nice change
Looked like he was tailing off but he finished well even though I don’t think he was in it to win it, a good prep race and if they can get him there in good shape why can’t a 13yo win it?
Black Apalachi had a tendon injury last year. BLACK APALACHI, runner-up to Don’t Push It in the John Smith’s Grand National last April, has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a tendon injury.
The 2008 Becher Chase winner whose last win came at Fairyhouse in the 2009 Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase missed his intended seasonal return at Punchestown on Sunday when he was taken out of the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle, and trainer Dessie Hughes said on Monday: “We brought him to the races and discovered some heat in his leg and when we had him scanned this morning it confirmed what I thought as he didn’t scan clean and has a torn fibre in a tendon.”
Hughes added: “He’ll have to stand in his box for a month or two and will miss the National and the rest of the season unfortunately. It’s a shame andvery unusual for a horse of his age to do that but hopefully we’ll see him next year.”
The 12-year-old Black Apalachi was generally available at 25-1 with most firms to go one better for the Aintree showpiece on April 9.
Also in my mind is that teenagers (horses)[just like people when they get old
] loose their speed, lets not forget that it was a slow Bobbyjo race.Occasionally you’re get freak results like anything and that’s probably why the is only 3 horses who won as teenagers in the entire history of the race, but I choose to ignore them for a national.
Though he has won on Good going, the majority of his winning form is on softer. His sire’s record is quite conclusively bad so it is impossible to read anything from that as if he was a typical French Glory it would be straight forward to dismiss him as lacking the class to win the race.
Phil Smith has framed the race in favour of Synchronised at the expense of everything else and has (imo) made a complete mockery of the race even before any events take place on course.It doesn’t matter if the majority of Prince De Beauchene’s form is on soft ground. When his best run for Johnson was on good it proves he acts on it. That run also being at Aintree at this meeting. To dismiss a horse for "lacking the class to win" defies logic EF, when he’s proven to be well-handicapped. Prince De Beauchene has already proven not typical of French Glory’s progeny in the Quality stakes and probably doesn’t need to improve further to win. Not that it’s out of the question, given Mullins record with ex-Johnson horses.
Synchronised is well-in on official ratings, doesn’t mean every other horse is poorly handicapped.
My point about quality is that making an analysis of French Glory in order to determine one of his progeny’s ability is pointless. He is a poor sire and Prince De Beauchene is an exception, that he might be of sufficient quality to win the National is in spite of his sire, not because of him.
Prince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don’t Push It had won before his victory.
By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn’t run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire’s sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he’s sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he’d be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn’t describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.
Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can’t see another horse looking as well-handicapped.
You have to be an out and out stayer. Many 3 mile chasers have floundered on the final circuit and how many horses are in contention in the closing stages of a national ? Sometimes four or five turning for home but usually no more than two at the finish. The last half mile to a mile finds them out.
Comply Or Die was a thorough stayer, proven by his runs in the RSA, Hennessy and the Eider prior to running at Aintree. Same for Mon Mome and the rest.I don’t think you understand what I meant as "out and out stayers" Mark.
Of course you need a "stayer" in a 4m4f race. It doesn’t matter if they’re also proven at 4m as long as they’re capable of showing their form at 3m2f. Comply Or Die and Mon Mome were not "out and out stayers", because they did not
need
extreme conditions to be effective at 3m2f or even 3m1f.
These days, unless the Grand National is run on very soft ground, out and out stayers are usually outpaced before staying on all too late. Obviously some 3m2f horses will fail in the closing stages, others will stay on well.
Value Is EverythingMy point about quality is that making an analysis of French Glory in order to determine one of his progeny’s ability is pointless. He is a poor sire and Prince De Beauchene is an exception, that he might be of sufficient quality to win the National is in spite of his sire, not because of him.
In my original post EF, I didn’t asses Prince De Beauchene’s
quality
by looking at French Glory.
Whatever the quality of a sire: Punters can gain some knowledge about a horse’s
chance of staying the trip
by looking at its pedigree. (Along with other relevant information like its own temperament and form). With French Glory I was assesing his stamina attributes,
not
quality.
Value Is EverythingAlso in my mind is that teenagers (horses)[just like people when they get old
] loose their speed, lets not forget that it was a slow Bobbyjo race.Occasionally you’re get freak results like anything and that’s probably why the is only 3 horses who won as teenagers in the entire history of the race, but I choose to ignore them for a national.
Looking at the record of teenagers in the National, it’s true they haven’t won for over 25 years. However, there’s been so few of them run that just one win would
percentage-wise
make them a
good
age group.
Although one has to take in to account the possibility of a 13 year old being on the downgrade. Black Apalachi should not be dismissed entirely on age grounds. The staying on second to PDB was a decent effort over what is probably an inadequate trip these days.
After a Grade 2 second, I hope Dessie Hughes apologises to Phil Smith. Having branded BA’s handicap mark as a "disgrace".
Value Is EverythingA bad sire is far less likely to impart any qualities he was endowed with to an exception from his normal progeny so trying to attain any clues from the top line of his pedigree has limited, if any, merit.
In trying to assess the extent of Prince de Beauchene’s stamina looking at the distaff side of his pedigree may prove more useful, but trying to assess any horse’s ability to stay 36f on pedigree is like trying to play darts while blindfolded and standing on a turntable.I don’t know about that EF. Old Vic sired two winners and a second in three years. Comply Or Die, Don’t Push It and Black Apalachi.
Value Is EverythingHow would that compare to Old Vic’s other progeny that ran in the race and showed insufficient stamina? Trying to convince people that pedigree analysis is worthwhile for a one-off distance is futile. On pedigree any horse you think would stay 36f would be just as likely to stay 72f.
Prince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don’t Push It had won before his victory.
By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn’t run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire’s sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he’s sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don’t Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he’d be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn’t describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.
Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can’t see another horse looking as well-handicapped.
You have to be an out and out stayer. Many 3 mile chasers have floundered on the final circuit and how many horses are in contention in the closing stages of a national ? Sometimes four or five turning for home but usually no more than two at the finish. The last half mile to a mile finds them out.
Comply Or Die was a thorough stayer, proven by his runs in the RSA, Hennessy and the Eider prior to running at Aintree. Same for Mon Mome and the rest.I don’t think you understand what I meant as "out and out stayers" Mark.
Of course you need a "stayer" in a 4m4f race. It doesn’t matter if they’re also proven at 4m as long as they’re capable of showing their form at 3m2f. Comply Or Die and Mon Mome were not "out and out stayers", because they did not
need
extreme conditions to be effective at 3m2f or even 3m1f.
These days, unless the Grand National is run on very soft ground, out and out stayers are usually outpaced before staying on all too late. Obviously some 3m2f horses will fail in the closing stages, others will stay on well.
Disagree. You can’t be anything but to win a National these days. Cloudy Lane was further evidence of a 3 mile chaser who just didn’t last home.
Silver Birch
Ballabriggs
NumbersixvalverdeNone of them quick enough to win top class 3 mile chases. Don’t Push It was running over shorter as a novice but it was then three years before he won a 3 miler and again, not a top class one.
I’d question any horses ability to stay this distance if they have won at Class 1 handicap level or above over 3 miles. The race won by Mon Mome at Cheltenham was a poor race.Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu, Quantitativeeasing are others i’d put a line through
Beginning to like the look of Robert Goldback though. Stayers on both sides of the family, jumps well, likes the ground, similar profile to others who have won / run well in the race..
Would rather back that at 40-1 than Seabass or PDB at 10’s or shorter.Disagree. You can’t be anything but to win a National these days. Cloudy Lane was further evidence of a 3 mile chaser who just didn’t last home.
Silver Birch
Ballabriggs
NumbersixvalverdeNone of them quick enough to win top class 3 mile chases. Don’t Push It was running over shorter as a novice but it was then three years before he won a 3 miler and again, not a top class one.
I’d question any horses ability to stay this distance if they have won at Class 1 handicap level or above over 3 miles. The race won by Mon Mome at Cheltenham was a poor race.Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu, Quantitativeeasing are others i’d put a line through
Beginning to like the look of Robert Goldback though. Stayers on both sides of the family, jumps well, likes the ground, similar profile to others who have won / run well in the race..
Would rather back that at 40-1 than Seabass or PDB at 10’s or shorter.What the xxxx?
How you can claim Ballabriggs as an "out and out stayer" Mark, get real. He’d won the Kim Muir over 3m1f110y at the Cheltenham Festival, a
top class handicap
. And had enough speed to win a 2m4f novice hurdle.
Don’t Push It won the John Smiths Handicap at the Aintree Festival, woth almost £44,000 to the winner. That’s
a top class handicap
!
Numbersixvalverde won the Thyestes Handicap Chase at 3 miles, one of the most important,
top class handicap
s in Ireland.
Silver Birch had finished 2nd in a x-country 3 mile event, but probably better over further. However, he had already got good Aintree form which (to a degree) overules the "out and out" statistic.
I’d agree, Calgary Bay, Seabass and Quantitativeeasing are highly unlikely to stay. Shakalakaboomboom and Planet Of Sound 50/50 on good ground, unlikely on soft. Cappa Bleu has already been placed in the Welsh National. Possibly a little below his best there, but it was on softer ground than ideal. I’d say unless it comes up very soft he’s a probable to stay. Very much doubt if Roberto Goldback will stay 4m4f.
If you look back Mark, I never said all 3m chasers will stay. As with Cloudy Lane, you’ve got to judge every horse on its own merits.
Value Is EverythingDisagree. You can’t be anything but to win a National these days. Cloudy Lane was further evidence of a 3 mile chaser who just didn’t last home.
Silver Birch
Ballabriggs
NumbersixvalverdeNone of them quick enough to win top class 3 mile chases. Don’t Push It was running over shorter as a novice but it was then three years before he won a 3 miler and again, not a top class one.
I’d question any horses ability to stay this distance if they have won at Class 1 handicap level or above over 3 miles. The race won by Mon Mome at Cheltenham was a poor race.Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu, Quantitativeeasing are others i’d put a line through
Beginning to like the look of Robert Goldback though. Stayers on both sides of the family, jumps well, likes the ground, similar profile to others who have won / run well in the race..
Would rather back that at 40-1 than Seabass or PDB at 10’s or shorter.What the xxxx?
How you can claim Ballabriggs as an "out and out stayer" Mark, get real. He’d won the Kim Muir over 3m1f110y at the Cheltenham Festival, a
top class handicap
. And had enough speed to win a 2m4f novice hurdle.
Don’t Push It won the John Smiths Handicap at the Aintree Festival, woth almost £44,000 to the winner. That’s
a top class handicap
!
Numbersixvalverde won the Thyestes Handicap Chase at 3 miles, one of the most important,
top class handicap
s in Ireland.
Silver Birch had finished 2nd in a x-country 3 mile event, but probably better over further. However, he had already got good Aintree form which (to a degree) overules the "out and out" statistic.
I’d agree, Calgary Bay, Seabass and Quantitativeeasing are highly unlikely to stay. Shakalakaboomboom and Planet Of Sound 50/50 on good ground, unlikely on soft. Cappa Bleu has already been placed in the Welsh National. Possibly a little below his best there, but it was on softer ground than ideal. I’d say unless it comes up very soft he’s a probable to stay. Very much doubt if Roberto Goldback will stay 4m4f.
If you look back Mark, I never said all 3m chasers will stay. As with Cloudy Lane, you’ve got to judge every horse on its own merits.
Don’t Push It won a class 2 full of donkeys in a time 30 seconds slower than standard
Numberixvalverde won a grade b full of donkeys. The fav was Bizet ( who ?! ) running off 118.Le Beau Bai is an out and out stayer and won a mediocre 3 mile chase before it’s WN win.
If you win a Grand National you are an out and out stayer.
Roberto Goldback – Has won over 3 miles ( unlike Seabass ) and stays on over three miles. Jumps soundly and up with the pace.
Sire = Bob Back, who’s progeny include Burton Port, Bobs Worth, Bacchanal among others
Dam = Mandysway, who is related to Sir Rembrandt, Macgeorge, Maximize, St Mellion Fairway,stayers and National form in the pedigree – much better chance of staying than some of the shorter priced flashier types.
I didn’t realise you gave Philip blowjobs as well as Nicky.
post by Zarkava just what this forum needs
I didn’t realise you gave Philip blowjobs as well as Nicky.
post by Zarkava just what this forum needs
What is thoroughly amusing is that it seems to have legitimately upset you.
What Zarkava said has absolutely no relevance to this thread. We get it, you’re sensitive, but if you wish to complain go and do so rather than looking for blatant sympathy in every thread you post in. Nobody cares.
Perhaps its me, but it seems like there are a ridiculous number of solid National candidates this year?
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