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Why should he prefer a 50-1 winner to beat a favourite ? What the hell has that got to do with him ?
You’ve taken that entirely out of context Mark.
Fact is, if the favourite won every time, then the handicapper wouldn’t be doing his job properly. It’s his job to try and get every runner to finish in a multi-dead-heat, IF running to the form HE believes they’re capable of given optimum conditions.
A horse is only a short priced favourite in a handicap when
form students or bookmakers
believe the handicapper
has made a mistake (letting in a horse lightly)
. So of course he does
not
want to see these
favourites win
. Because
IF
they
don’t
win it is a sign that actually
the short priced favourite wasn’t "let in so lightly" after all
. ie Vindication of his handicap mark.
Equally, a horse is often an outsider ("
50/1
" etc) because the form
students or bookmakers
believe it has been
given too much weight
. So of course he’s going to like it when a 50/1 shot wins. Because it
vindicates
his handicap mark and sticks two fingers up at the form students/so called experts.
If you can’t understand that Mark, you don’t understand handicapping.
Value Is Everythingfrm updated as junior unplaced at newbury today,and burton port running in 2nd place to long run, odds reduced by bookies, a few national potental running in haydocks trial tomorrow
vf
i do hope giles cross gets hs favoured ground for the natonal
great performance today, jockey motionless in final stages of race, a few others who ran good, neptune collonges and of course le beau bia who loves heavy ground
the lkes of mon mome, lttle josh being pulled up (so stll not qualified), always rght seemed to be going well until final stages of race, maybe needs better ground pulled up
another in the winners enclosure massini’s maguire, cappa bleu 3rd
pearlysteps pulled up, and some target ran 4th
king fontaine a fallerive updated those know who ran if ive missed any please let me know then i can update the form
vf
Thought Cappa Bleu ran an excellent trial at Ascot today. Didn’t seem to get as forceful ride as the first two. 9 year old who hasn’t had much racing. Won Foxhunters at Cheltenham in 2009 Possibly more improvement to come. Better ground should suit him.
William Hill pushed his price out to 33/1, too good to ignore.
Value Is EverythingAny thoughts on Killyglen – was going well last year for a long way when falling. Got a nice weight as well
Why should he prefer a 50-1 winner to beat a favourite ? What the hell has that got to do with him ?
You’ve taken that entirely out of context Mark.
Fact is, if the favourite won every time, then the handicapper wouldn’t be doing his job properly. It’s his job to try and get every runner to finish in a multi-dead-heat, IF running to the form HE believes they’re capable of given optimum conditions.
A horse is only a short priced favourite in a handicap when
form students or bookmakers
believe the handicapper
has made a mistake (letting in a horse lightly)
. So of course he does
not
want to see these
favourites win
. Because
IF
they
don’t
win it is a sign that actually
the short priced favourite wasn’t "let in so lightly" after all
. ie Vindication of his handicap mark.
Equally, a horse is often an outsider ("
50/1
" etc) because the form
students or bookmakers
believe it has been
given too much weight
. So of course he’s going to like it when a 50/1 shot wins. Because it
vindicates
his handicap mark and sticks two fingers up at the form students/so called experts.
If you can’t understand that Mark, you don’t understand handicapping.
It wasn’t out of context, and that explanation is just waffle.
Beginning to think you are Phil Smith.
Any thoughts on Killyglen – was going well last year for a long way when falling. Got a nice weight as well
That’s my horse at the moment. Always Right appears to have internal problems.
He was travelling well, had jumped well, and fell. That’s not a negative for the National. Also appears to be as good as ever this season.
33-1 won’t last.
Very taken by Cappa Bleu’s performance today, stayed on well, wasn’t ridden too hard. Trainer knows how to get one right for the day.
My deductions have now taken me down to 3; Cappa Bleu, Chicago Grey and Junior, and to be honest I’m more taken by the first two to be honest.
This year is my year
If you can’t understand that Mark, you don’t understand handicapping.
It wasn’t out of context, and that explanation is just waffle.
Beginning to think you are Phil Smith.
And your explanation of why my "explanation is waffle" is…?
Answer: Waffle.
Seems my last sentence is true then.
Value Is EverythingAny thoughts on Killyglen – was going well last year for a long way when falling. Got a nice weight as well
Can’t see it myself. If you are backing him BR, my advice is put an in-running saver lay bet at half of your back price. As he’s ridden prominently, travels well and then finds absolutely nothing.
Value Is EverythingIf you can’t understand that Mark, you don’t understand handicapping.
It wasn’t out of context, and that explanation is just waffle.
Beginning to think you are Phil Smith.
And your explanation of why my "explanation is waffle" is…?
Answer: Waffle.
Seems my last sentence is true then.
Nowhere close but i’m always cautious about people who defend things which are deeply flawed.
Yet you fail to say why it is "waffle" or why it is "deeply flawed" Mark.
Anyway, enough of this "waffle".
Let’s get back to the Grand National shall we?
Value Is EverythingShortlist of 5 at present ;
Calgary Bay – Seems rejuvenated this year and better than ever.I think he will stay,is a solid jumper and has a touch of class.25/1 seems a very good EW bet.
West End Rocker – Definite stayer,likes the fences,very game and a lovely racing weight.Only slight concern would be the ground in April.
Cappa Bleu – Good warm up run yesterday,ran very well on softer than ideal ground in the Welsh national.Again has a lovely racing weight and should stay.
Prince De Beauchene – Stayed on very well in the 3 mile handicap on National day last year proving his liking for the track.Willie Mullins is likely to bring further improvement in and Ruby will probably ride.No value in his price but will probably be my bet on the day
Planet of Sound – Ran a cracker at Newbury last time out under a big weight.Has class,should like the track and appears a very economical jumper.Only concern is jockey/trainer combo at present.
Still happy to side with Seabass, but should know more after his next run, encouraging though, to see that they haven’t ruled it out. A horse actually being targetted for it is a big plus, and although there are stamina doubts, I’m fairly confident his running style would be an advantage round here.
Blazing Tempo would be an unusual choice, as this would not
appear to be the plan, however, having already wasted a few quid on some no-shows already, one more ain’t gonna hurt.
I do think she’s came on a ton this year, and is still a bit under rated. Still undecided on what I think her best trip is, and a horse with that kind of profile wouldn’t normally appeal, but it can be done, as Papillon showed. No indication at all that she’ll be heading for this, but if she puts up a good show at Cheltenham, which I’m very hopeful of, then I’m keeping my fingers crossed that they’ll take advantage of her current mark. I’ve put a few quid on at very big prices in vein hope that she heads here anyway………….odds on to be taken out at next forfeit stage though. 
I’ll bet State Of Play on the day, he’s not let me down so far, but normally at this stage I’ll always prefer those who’ve not ran in it before. I’ll make an exception though for Arbor Supreme this year. Now with Jonjo, he’s been well fancied the last 2 runnings when with Willie Mullins, only to fail to get round. He’s been given a very, very low-key prep, knocking about in hurdle races. Was also interested in Jonjo’s very non-committal appraisal of the horses prospects. Probably reading too much into it, but I’ve had a few quid on at very big prices anyway.
I’m very happy to see Seabass in there. Very happy. Already on at 33’s, I hope they go for it. No doubt they won’t.
Blazing Tempo would be another of interestStill happy to side with Seabass, but should know more after his next run, encouraging though, to see that they haven’t ruled it out. A horse actually being targetted for it is a big plus, and although there are stamina doubts, I’m fairly confident his running style would be an advantage round here.
Blazing Tempo would be an unusual choice, as this would
not
appear to be the plan, however, having already wasted a few quid on some no-shows already, one more ain’t gonna hurt.
I do think she’s came on a ton this year, and is still a bit under rated. Still undecided on what I think her best trip is, and a horse with that kind of profile wouldn’t normally appeal, but it can be done, as Papillon showed. No indication at all that she’ll be heading for this, but if she puts up a good show at Cheltenham, which I’m very hopeful of, then I’m keeping my fingers crossed that they’ll take advantage of her current mark. I’ve put a few quid on at very big prices in vein hope that she heads here anyway………….odds on to be taken out at next forfeit stage though. I’ll bet State Of Play on the day, he’s not let me down so far, but normally at this stage I’ll always prefer those who’ve not ran in it before. I’ll make an exception though for Arbor Supreme this year. Now with Jonjo, he’s been well fancied the last 2 runnings when with Willie Mullins, only to fail to get round. He’s been given a very, very low-key prep, knocking about in hurdle races. Was also interested in Jonjo’s very non-committal appraisal of the horses prospects. Probably reading too much into it, but I’ve had a few quid on at very big prices anyway.
Arbor Supreme is an interesting one i was surprised to see him in the entries but now i’m thinking about Risk Accessor who gave me a good run for my money at the third time of asking.
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