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Uncle Junior won the Glenfarclas X-Country Chase at Cheltenham in November by 2¼ lengths from Garde Champetre at level weights. On Garde Champetre’s form prior to that it seemed as if upping Uncle Junior’s handicap mark to 159 was justified. However, since then Garde Champetre hasn’t looked as good as last season (vastly flattered penultimate start); therefore probably didn’t run “to form” when chasing home Uncle Junior. So Uncle Junior probably did NOT run to 159 either and deserves to be dropped. He himself was only in 4th before most of the field took the wrong course last time out. Not franking the form either. There’s also a case for Uncle Junior being best on X-Country courses. Form over conventional courses not as good, which again could mean a lesser handicap mark than those X-Country races of his last two starts (ie being dropped).
Value Is EverythingPost-weights, I’ve narrowed it down to Junior, Chicago Grey, Planet Of Sound and Cappa Bleu.
My initial research was shocking and built on dire perception on how the weights would be formalised.
I’m determined to pick the winner this year
I have absolutely no clue who to go for this year. Got nothing but outsiders in my list of 10. Lord knows this time next month i’ll have 5 or 6 new editions to the list. So far i got…
According To Pete
Black Apalachi
Calgary Bay
Deep Purple
Giles Cross
Killyglen
Midnight Chase
Neptune Collonges
Planet Of Sound
Vic VenturiBozlike…..
Post-weights, I’ve narrowed it down to Junior, Chicago Grey, Planet Of Sound and Cappa Bleu.
Good luck picking the winner, you would have a good shout with those four. I’ve kind of lost faith a little in Planet of sound, I thought a couple of seasons ago, after winning the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown, that he looked like he was going to be very good. He hasn’t quite lived up to that although he did put up a good run behind Carruthers last time.
Of your four, I will be having a bit on Chicago Grey. We know he should get the distance after winning the festival amateurs race over 4m last year. It’s unlikely, but I would love to see Derek O’Connor get the ride. I think he is not just the best amateur on the go, I think he is also a top notch jockey. He knows how to slowly put a horse into a race, that is going to be invaluable for him in the national. Most likely going to be Carberry or Condon on him.
I’ve already put my case for le Beau Bai, he’s obviously not everybody’s cup of tea, but I think this race might play to his strengths. I hope he goes well in the trial on Saturday at Haydock. There seems to be more money rolling on him, he’s down to 6-1 (5s in places)
Best of luck with those, unfortunately it looks like a national that you could pick ten horses, and not have a place. I suppose that makes it all the more interesting…..and harder
So does Alfa Beat have a legit chance? He sure is gorgeous.
Irv Naylor’s stable has absolutely dominated American racing for the past couple years, and he took the American "Grand National" hurdle last year with the Irish horse Black Jack Blues. He’s had two Maryland Hunt Cup winners, Make Me a Champ in 2005 and Askim in 2008.
Would be a nice story, anyway, if Alfa Beat won. http://lfg.live.mediaspanonline.com/ass … 0111_1.pdf
Anyone?
Very, very much doubt he’ll stay the trip. Might run well for three miles and then fade like many before him.
Also, the handicappers treatment of Black Apalachi is disgraceful.
Why?
Value Is EverythingMark, go back earlier in this thread to see the conversation I had with Ginger about Black Apalachi. Spare him the bother of repeating himself (this isn’t meant in a bad way, Ginger! Don’t want you wasting your time, that’s all!).
Peter.h, Vic Venturi has zero chance of getting in. Believe me, I’m the biggest Vic Venturi Grand National fan there is. He won’t be running and the Foxhunters’ at Aintree is apparently the target.
Peter.h, Vic Venturi has zero chance of getting in. Believe me, I’m the biggest Vic Venturi Grand National fan there is. He won’t be running and the Foxhunters’ at Aintree is apparently the target.
He is only 68th in the list, depending on final ratings on the day as there are a handful on 10st he would get in on previous years stats.
Though i agree the foxhunters would be a more suitable target.Also, the handicappers treatment of Black Apalachi is disgraceful.
Why?
So your argument is that two years off the track and now aged 13 an apparent 5lb drop is fair ?
It’s a joke. Like i’ve said before with his rating of Crozan and many other horses.
He’s a regressive influence on the sport and is in the bookies pockets ( what room there is )
What
evidence
is there that Black Apalachi has regressed? Phil Smith can’t handicap a horse purely on
age
, he’s got to look at
form
. Had Hughes ran it a
few times before
the weights came out, he could’ve been
seen
to have regressed and dropped
significantly
(like Mon Mome). Proven over course and distance. Fact is
last time
we saw Black Apalachi on a racecourse he showed
improved
form for a
career best
performance. To expect more than a 5 lbs drop, even being a 13 year old, would be wrong (imo) without more
evidence
to go on.
Dessie Hughes might say it’s a disgrace. If the horse has only just got back to fitness, then it is nobody’s fault. But if Black Apalachi was fit to run earlier, then any fault for a "high" mark lies firmly with one man, Dessie Hughes.
Value Is EverythingBurton Port ran a stormer, for sure. You know Trevor Hemmings will want to run him if all is well after Cheltenham as well.
You have to like his attitude and chances of staying based on his RSA run. I worry that he might be a tad small to handle the fences though, a la Neptune Collonges.
What
evidence
is there that Black Apalachi has regressed? Phil Smith can’t handicap a horse purely on
age
, he’s got to look at
form
.
Has this stopped him before when raising a horses weight even though it has fallen with half a mile to run ? Or reassessed a horse rating – even though it hasn’t run in months – on the basis of how well others in that race have performed since.
And what horse has improved or retained it’s ability at this level when reaching 13 ?
Trabolgan was off the course for three years with injuries and he didn’t drop him a pound. Even my dead grandmother knows that it’s nigh on impossible to return from such a lay-off and retain the same ability. The result ? A year later Trabolgan is a stone lighter yet still can’t win a race.
However, he did drop Well Chief a stone after his lay-off. Funny, that, because he’s treated Pipe horses favourably before.
And i’ll never forget them raising that plater a couple of years ago by 23lb just because it had the temerity to win a race after twenty odd attempts
Racing is run by incompetents that make the FA look wise.
But he doesn’t need to "improve" or even "retain" the same ability he showed when last seen. The handicapper has
dropped
Black Apalachi by 5 lbs. If connections wanted a lesser weight, they should’ve run the bxxxxx thing.
Value Is EverythingBut he doesn’t need to "improve" or even "retain" the same ability he showed when last seen. The handicapper has
dropped
Black Apalachi by 5 lbs. If connections wanted a lesser weight, they should’ve run the bxxxxx thing.
5lb is a joke.
Smith is about as consistent as a Premiership ref.
Why should he prefer a 50-1 winner to beat a favourite ? What the hell has that got to do with him ?
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