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So Hector’s Choice and Quantitativeeasing have now been given a weight despite not qualifying for the race
You have to laugh
At this moment in time they are entitled to a weight ,subject to qualifying by the 20th of March.
Hoping the ill thought out three mile qualifying rule is dropped by next year.
So does Alfa Beat have a legit chance? He sure is gorgeous.
Irv Naylor’s stable has absolutely dominated American racing for the past couple years, and he took the American "Grand National" hurdle last year with the Irish horse Black Jack Blues. He’s had two Maryland Hunt Cup winners, Make Me a Champ in 2005 and Askim in 2008.
Would be a nice story, anyway, if Alfa Beat won. http://lfg.live.mediaspanonline.com/ass … 0111_1.pdf
Anyone?
I’d say Alfa beat puts forward a very solid case Miss Woodford, looks to handle the likely aintree festival ground and shows reasonable form over marathon trips with his 4th at cheltenham behind chicago grey. He’s fallen over the national fences before which splits opinion as to wether the previous experience is a positive or negative, he’s usually a solid jumper but Phil Smith hasn’t been easy on the horse though, likely to be running off 11st 6, I’d rather one or two other classier animals off that kind of running weight. Good luck to you and his trainer.
Thanks to Zarkava for the analysis on alloted weights vs ORs. Poor old Treacle has been clobbered, even with his run on Sunday, I think 20lbs over is excessive.
Can’t pretend to know everything about handicapping but it does seem somewhat perverse that all but one entries has been allotted over their official mark.
Would love State of Play to run another big race. Can’t see him winning, but would definitely have a place chance.
BeauRanger…….I’m with you on this one, I think Le Beau Bai is thrown in on 10st3lbs. I can’t for the life of me understand why you can still get 40-1 on him, he certainly won’t be that price if he wins the National trial on Saturday (I’ve take 12-1, best price now 8-1 and still worth a bet at that)
He needs 15 to drop out if he is to get in the National, but I think there is a very good chance he will make it.
I backed Le Beau Bai in the Welsh National. But he’s unlikely to run unless it’s soft, which is one reason for the price. Very rounded action that needs soft/heavy to show his best. Thought of as a Chepstow specialist, although some good placed efforts elsewhere. Possibly better in the first half of the season too. An exposed sort who did not need to "improve" to win the Welsh National, having been dropped since his earlier good form. That wasn’t a great standard for a "top handicap" and has in fact gone up 9 lbs since. Hasn’t won off his current mark of 140 but was a 20 length third off 148 to Silver By Nature in 2010.
I’d only think of backing Le Beau Bai IF it looks like coming up a bog nearer the day.
Value Is EverythingThe only horse in training slower than Le Beau Bai is Quito de la Roque. A monsoon of biblical proportions would be needed for him to have any hope in the National.
Thanks to Zarkava for the analysis on alloted weights vs ORs. Poor old Treacle has been clobbered, even with his run on Sunday, I think 20lbs over is excessive.
Can’t pretend to know everything about handicapping but it does seem somewhat perverse that all but one entries has been allotted over their official mark.
Would love State of Play to run another big race. Can’t see him winning, but would definitely have a place chance.
Zark’s comparrison of weights is interesting and informative. But some horses have run in the last few days and drastically improved. Treacle and Quel Esprit in particular would’ve had a much higher Official Mark if those races were taken in to consideration in their ORs. The handicapper HAS taken those races in to account. I don’t think their new marks were available to Zark when analysing.
So I wouldn’t be put off Treacle by the "20 lbs over" Applejack, as it gives a false impression (not Zark’s fault).
Value Is EverythingAll I did was look at the original list of entries and their ORs and put it alongside a list of the allotted weights, nothing else.
For sure Zark, you couldn’t have done anything more. I too had looked at that same/similar list to see who the handicapper had let in lightly or been hard on. All I am saying is with some of those who’ve run recently their ORs were out of date. Because (with the list you had to work with) their NEW ORs had not come through yet, having only run two days previously. I believe they were only known as the Grand National weights came out. So although it is not your fault Zark, "+20 lbs" gives a false impression of whether Treacle is well or poorly handicapped.
Value Is EverythingOf course, no doubt about it.
But I’m really baffled as to how Black Apalachi has been put up 2lbs while Uncle Junior’s been dropped by 7. Wtf.
Could someone tell me if Junior would incur a penalty if he were to win this GN trial at Haydock, please?
Definite no Grimes, though last I heard he was heading for his hurdle entry at the weekend.
Of course, no doubt about it.
But I’m really baffled as to how Black Apalachi has been put up 2lbs while Uncle Junior’s been dropped by 7. Wtf.
How do you work out Black Apalachi has been put up 2 lbs?
According to what I can see:
Black Apalachi hasn’t raced since his 5 length second in this race to Don’t Push It in 2010 off a mark of154
. With 20 lengths back to the third, a 5 lbs increase to
159
was surely justified. However, having not run since that day Black Apalachi is due to run again off
154
.
Effectively a drop of 5 lbs
since his last rating. ie Had Black Apalachi run in the interim it would’ve been off a mark of 159 and now races off 154.
By calling his mark "a disgrace" Dessie Hughes is himself a disgrace.
Value Is EverythingGingertipster…
backed Le Beau Bai in the Welsh National. But he’s unlikely to run unless it’s soft, which is one reason for the price. Very rounded action that needs soft/heavy to show his best.
Zarkava…..
The only horse in training slower than Le Beau Bai is Quito de la Roque. A monsoon of biblical proportions would be needed for him to have any hope in the National.
I agree with both you guys, he does love it soft, it plays to his stamina. I don’t know about him being the slowest, or second slowest, horse in training, there have been plenty behind him on many occasions. I think the fact that he is 7-1 favourite for the Grand National trial (3m4f)at Haydock on Saturday, and it looks a pretty decent field, suggests others might think he is a little more than a plodder.
I think the Grand national is the most stamina sapping race there is, so although he is most definitely not the speediest horse around by a long chalk, he has stamina to burn and has not fallen in the 35 races he has competed in. Those two factors suggest to me that at 40-1 he is not the worst E/W on the go, deluge or not.
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