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I know the stable have ‘Grandouet’ and ‘Binocular’ in the wings too
but unlike Ginge,i dont back em all
,i have nailed my colours to the mast and if ‘Hurricane Fly’ and his fragilities surface my fellow could go off Fav,2 runs and the big one will do nicely.
Let me explain why I rarely bet each way ante-post.I’ve only got the
one
in the Champion Hurdle Gord. Grandouet to win.
You’ve got
two
bets so far. One main bet on Spirit Son to win. One saver bet on Spirit Son to place.
Each to his own and all that, but both your bets rely on one horse. If he does not run, you lose both bets. I prefer to back one, sometimes two win only than betting each way on one horse.
With so many possible runners, it is mathematically better value to bet win only ante-post. Then either lay it back later or back something else as a saver. Although of course if a horse is a value win bet he will be value for a place too; just not so good value as win only.
I agree, backing against a favourite like Hurricane Fly, who has a history of niggly little problems is a good idea Gord. I hope Spirit Son gets over his own little problems and runs enough times beforehand to improve enough to be competitive.
If you look at my ante-post bets over the last couple of years Gord, in fact I don’t back many horses in the same race. Because: Say I back two selections both at 7/1 to win the same amount. If only one is able to take part, then it needs to start at less than 3/1 for me to have any sort of value. The more horses backed, the more likely one is of not running and lessening value.
Good luck with your
two
bets Gord.
Value Is EverythingGood luck with your
two
bets Gord.
Ginge,you cant be faulted for your ‘Protection racket’ i see you even backed ‘Sizing’ at the weekend,it protected your stakes on the other 2 so i’m not going to criticise that.At the end of the day its all about Not losing,so well done.
My own philosophy regarding Ante-Post betting e/w is,if i snaffle a big price on a horse i can see being targeted for a particular race i certainly want to make a profit and on occassions i would be more than happy to place only,particularly if there’s a short priced fav in the Ante-Post market. I backedDancing Brave
at 12/1 e/w for the Derby,placed,
Exbourne
at 16/1 for the 89 Guineas,placed,
Bellotto
at 16/1 for the 87 Guineas,placed
Lycius
at 40/1 for the 91 Guineas,placed
Silver Patriarch
at 20/1 for the 97 Derby,Placed and dozens more so you can see why i do it.
Gord i like your thoughts on these 2 horses.SIR DES CHAMPS though he beat trees i still think he turn into a smashing chaser. i see Mullins said he drop him back to 2ms next. but he did this with Cooldine as well when he was 3rd behind Follow The Plan so i hope he goes to Moraity after this race then to RSA where he be a big player.
And other horse is INVICTUS Beat Gift Of Dgab very easy today another chaser going places this fellow will be better than WALKON over fences in my mind.
Invictus
has done all thats been asked of him effortlessly Darren but i have to dissagree with you about him being better than
Walkon
,he seems to have been around forever and yet has only just jumped a fence,he’ll go a long way if he remains injury free imo.Invictus will be tested when he meets proper horses,i hope he rises to the challenge as you are never far away with your own assessment of them.
Sir Des Champs
,possibly the eyecatcher of the festival,i like him a lot,i dont think he’s a Gold Cup horse at all though,if he jumps fences the right way at Cheltenham i can see him winning his owners race (Ryanair) one day.Top class 21/2m Chaser imo.
Good luck with your
two
bets Gord.
Ginge,you cant be faulted for your ‘Protection racket’ i see you even backed ‘Sizing’ at the weekend,it protected your stakes on the other 2 so i’m not going to criticise that.At the end of the day its all about Not losing,so well done.
My own philosophy regarding Ante-Post betting e/w is,if i snaffle a big price on a horse i can see being targeted for a particular race i certainly want to make a profit and on occassions i would be more than happy to place only,particularly if there’s a short priced fav in the Ante-Post market. I backedDancing Brave
at 12/1 e/w for the Derby,placed,
Exbourne
at 16/1 for the 89 Guineas,placed,
Bellotto
at 16/1 for the 87 Guineas,placed
Lycius
at 40/1 for the 91 Guineas,placed
Silver Patriarch
at 20/1 for the 97 Derby,Placed and dozens more so you can see why i do it.
Gord,
Those quoted ante-post placed winnings were all between 25 and 14 years ago. Count up all the each way loser bets you’ve had over the last 25 years, and see if those placed winnings pay for them. Any winners you’ve had don’t count to the total (eg Prohibit), as had you not bet each way, you could’ve won even more by increasing win stakes.Value Is EverythingGinge, i hear what you are saying and again its a case of horses for courses,you do considerably well ‘covering your bases’ with several runners in each race,i used those horses as an example as to how far back i could actually go with my success rate,just on placed returns.My Ante-Post record of backing winners at big prices is actually 2nd to nobody and there have been plenty on here.I spend the majority of my time backing horses at inflated Betfair prices and very often laying them off in-running at way shorter prices,i dont include any of my Betfair wagers on this thread and never have done as you cant foresee what price you will get in running if you do lay it off,not that you always can anyway.Of all the years i have dabbled Ante-Post i would say my biggest mistake was laying off
Fleeting Spirit
at 12/1 prior to the race,having backed her at 42’s down to 16’s on the machine and several High st wagers e/w at 12/1 and 10/1.I should have layed her in running at 1/2 just when she bumped ‘Main Aim’ but you live and learn,apart from my recent selections on here i am very happy betting e/w Ante-Post.You have found a successful ‘System’ for want of a better word and i praise your consistency!
KF: What are your thoughts on
Hen loves the race and the course and going will suit Somersby fine. I was worried about Medermit but they look like going for the Race at Cheltenham now.BTW
KF: What are your thoughts on
Hen loves the race and the course and going will suit Somersby fine. I was worried about Medermit but they look like going for the Race at Cheltenham now.BTW
If i could get 6/4 now i would take it about
Somersby
winning the Peterborough Chase GDC,i doubt whether the 2 principle dangers will run
The Nightingale
and
Noble Prince
,if they did, expect 9/4 and still take it,he’s tailor-made for it imo.
Divers
has a bit of the
L’antartiques
about him so i wouldn’t totally dismiss him,BUT he’s had too many races to say he has the scope of the likes of
Ghizao
and
Quantitiveeasing
,i prefer both of them.
apart from my recent selections on here i am very happy betting e/w Ante-Post.You have found a successful ‘System’ for want of a better word and i praise your consistency!
Thanks Gord,
Wouldn’t say betting each way is always wrong (only opinion, not fact). I had an each way bet on Grands Crus last year for the Stayers (do we have to call it "World"?) Hurdle @ 20/1. With an odds on favourite in the race I’ve done the same with Dynaste this time around.
Value Is EverythingGinger: I totally agree re Dynaste, especially if Mullins sends Thousand Stars down the Champion Hurdle route should all not be well with glass legs
I will have a small EW play on Cross Kennon, brave little horse who has quite obviously not taken to chasing. Rigour Back Rob was my horse for EW purposes this season but i believe he is going chasing!
KF: Thanks for the comments, I shall have to stick with Divers as they are very keen on him and he looked a picture when i was at the yard recently. May well opt to place a couple of RFC with Quantativeasing and Medermit.
I think ante post each way is often a bad idea. The problem is the risk/reward on the place bet is not usually very good because of the possibility the horse won’t turn up. For example you might expect a horse to be 4/1 (20%)on the day or 1-1 (50%)for a place. If it has a 50 % chance of turning up then its ante post win odds should be 9/1 (10%) which translates to 9/4 (31%) for a place. But the true place odds should be 3-1 (25%).
Always check place value on an exchange before going each way antepost. Sometimes its still worthwhile especially if you know your horse will run but you expect others to drop out.
I think ante post each way is often a bad idea.
Fair enough Kasp,each to their own but seeing how its you and you were always complimentary about my ‘Prophet with an F’ thread,i’ll give you a Rock solid Ante-Post e/w bet for the festival,barring injury he runs in the Kim Muir again and he’s 12/1 with Stan James,Come the day,we will lump on big time,just like we did last year except we were on at 16/1 Ante-Post and he returned 3/1fav,you could still get 6’s on the morning of the race but it was the Gamble of the festival.The horse is called
Junior
. Keep it to yourself mind!
What on earth has
Time for Ruperts
poor form got to do with the way Will Kennedy rode him? Absolutely nothing,the poor lad has lost the ride in favour of Denis O’Regan.Changing jockeys is nothing more than a last ditch attempt at saving face for trainer Paul Webber,the horse hasn’t been right since he burst a blood vessel in the RSA when sent off fav.Talk about deperate measures,its a sad fact of racing that Loyalty is a word lost to those who profit from greed and selfishness.I for one hope Will gets another top class horse and shows connections of Time for Rupert that it was the horse not the Jockey who lost its form.
As an ante-post bet is speculative, the place part of a bet should really only be getting your money back. It’s all down to personal preferences of course but experience shows that usually only one horse can win a race. The place terms are not really worth a level stakes investment as I dont think anyone backs ante-post unless they think their selection is capable of winning.
For example a £100 Win, £20 Place bet on a horse at 20/1. 1/4 Odds a place.
Gord the target for Junior is the national. he run in Kim Muir but i think it be a prep race for him with national in my mind.
What on earth has
Time for Ruperts
poor form got to do with the way Will Kennedy rode him? Absolutely nothing,the poor lad has lost the ride in favour of Denis O’Regan.Changing jockeys is nothing more than a last ditch attempt at saving face for trainer Paul Webber,the horse hasn’t been right since he burst a blood vessel in the RSA when sent off fav.Talk about deperate measures,its a sad fact of racing that Loyalty is a word lost to those who profit from greed and selfishness.I for one hope Will gets another top class horse and shows connections of Time for Rupert that it was the horse not the Jockey who lost its form.
I agree with you about Will Kennedy, done nowt wrong and deserves to keep the ride. He’s a young jockey with a future in my opinion. However, it’s the owners and trainer’s perogative to employ whoever they wish.
Did you say the same thing about Carruthers connections when they jocked off Mattie Batchelor at Cheltenham Gord? He only got the ride back for the Hennessy because Fehily chose the Nicholls horse.
Value Is Everything
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