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At the prices i have to keep the faith with the 3yo
Elzaam
,obviously if the ground came up really soft Dream Ahead would take some beating,Hoof it is a 6f Group 1 horse but he should be put away for next year now.Elzaam has some great formlines that suggest if he is on his A-game then 12/1 is too big and if the ground stays on the faster side of good at Haydock Dream ahead wont like it,i would like to think he is a certainty on paper to place,i stayed loyal to Margot Did and she proved the 3yo’s are certainly up to scratch,i hope Elzaam proves he is too.
Elzaam
£150 e/w 12/1 Bet 365 Haydock sprint Cup.
£150 e/w Tote 12/1.£2000
- Total Posts 17716
Dream Ahead was beaten on softer ground at Deauville than he won the July Cup on, and remains a risky bet.
If the ground at Haydock is genuinely on the fast side of good, I wouldn’t look beyond Hoof It, at all.Surprised to see you posting tonight Gord. Thought you’d be in the hospital at your girlfriends bedside!
Re Dream Ahead – that "he must have soft ground" argument surely redundant after Newmarket? This year he has run better on Good to Firm than he did on soft. Haydock currently Good with going stick at 7.0. Perfect I’d say.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Joni,Hayley will be back before you know it,i remember when she was sidelined with the head injury and advised not to ride anything for a year…..Yeh right!
RE: Sprint Cup
The remains of Hurricane Irene are forecasted to move over the upper-half of the UK on Friday/Saturday, and it’s touch and go whether Haydock will be in its path. If the low pressure system, what remains of the storm, does dip as low as the Liverpool area (which is a possibility, considering rainfall is expected in Northern Ireland), we’re taking serious rainfall in a short space of time. If i was going to go ante-post on the BSC i’d keep an eye on the forecast, and consider backing
Dream Ahead
or not on that basis.
Quite liking the 20-1 about Midsummer Sun in the big handicap at Ascot on Saturday.
Once thought of as a Derby horse, this half brother to Midday is running off 88 having disappointed at Royal Ascot.
Very competitive race but might be nicely handicapped.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
- Total Posts 17716
Haydock currently Good with going stick at 7.0. Perfect I’d say.
Different track for Saturday – current g.s. reading 8.1.
Thankfully
Elzaam
is a horse who handles a bit of cut just fine,i hate having an Ante-Post bet where your horse needs a specific ground condition,its hard enough finding the ideal race for a horse never mind its ground.Obviously the more rain the better the chances of Dream Ahead,he was scoped after his last run and that would concern me but for a horse who hits the ground hard he is apparently a Rolls Royce of a mover,he is a worthy fav.
Believe Haydock going reports at your peril with Mr Tellwrong in charge.
Elzaam has a flowing action typical of a top-of-the-ground performer. Massively impressive at Newbury and chased home Strong Suit last year at Ascot on it. Has some form on soft, but probably best on a firm surface. Also wonder if he’s a spring / early summer horse / gets bored with racing.
Value Is Everything‘chased home Strong Suit last year at Ascot’
Chased home Ginge? He was mugged on the line thanks to Richard Hills less than acceptable efforts! If
Elzaam
shows his best form tomorrow on the current ground he must be placed at least imo.
I noticed today
Taqleed
being ridden for the first time this year like he was as a 3yo,ridden up front dictating matters,its only taken 6 months to realise thats how he has to be ridden,his loyal supporters were rewarded with 10/1 and i unfortunately wasn’t one of them,i backed him for this years Lincoln at 20/1 fully expecting him to run em ragged,the rest is history as they say!
‘chased home Strong Suit last year at Ascot’
Chased home Ginge? He was mugged on the line thanks to Richard Hills less than acceptable efforts! If
Elzaam
shows his best form tomorrow on the current ground he must be placed at least imo.
I backed Elzaam that day, and at the time felt he was unlucky. Richard Hills seemed to think the race was won. However, Strong Suit had to wait for a gap and would’ve been an unlucky loser, finishing so powerfully.
Ground is probably ok for Elzaam tomorrow. I rate him in my 100% book as a 16/1 shot. Hichens looks the value outsider to me @ 35/1. The two favourites are the ones to be on though. 2/1 combined odds for Dream Ahead and Hoof It.
Value Is EverythingGet in!!1 Great race! Almost threw it away tho!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
An interesting day I thought chaps. Great race for the Sprint Cup with the cream rising to the top. Hard to say that the best horse didnt win as DA probably needs to be produced late on and found himself in front too early but Hoof It was definitely forced to change direction and might have won the race the way it was run.
If they all met again I would still back DA as I think they learnt a bit today and you will see him ridden differently from now on. Also put to bed the need for soft ground once and for all.
Over in Ireland it was hard to know what to make of SYT. On the face of it it was workmanlike but he was always holding the filly and looked to have a bit more if needed. He is such a big horse that he is bound to improve a bit for the run and I am intrigued as to where he will go next. Where do you guys think he will go?
From a selfish point of view I hope he goes for the Arc as I don’t want him to run in the Champion. I backed Cecil for the trainers title at the start of the season and he has a far better chance of winning the Champion if SYT is not in it. If he were mine though that is exactly where he WOULD run as I can’s see him winning the Arc over 1m4f on soft ground. It wouldnt actually surprise me to see him run in both which I do think would be a mistake. He has had some hard races they would have to take their toll. I did have to laugh when connections mentioned the QEII. Not a chance in hell he will take on the wonderhorse.
As for Snow Fairy, I thought she ran a cracker and proved herself top class. I would think the Champion could be on her agenda as well before heading east again but I suppose it would depend on the Ascot ground. It would be a cracking race if she lined up against SYT, Midday and TO especially as I already have my ticket! Recent formlines would have them all pretty close as I think we can safely ignore TO’s last Ascot run. I fear on decent ground SYT would beat Midday with SF and TO battling out for 3rd.
Should be an exciting end to the season anyway!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I agree Joni,the best horse won the Sprint Cup and on ground less than ideal,trouble is you cant back them all (Ginge)!
Dream Ahead
was the ‘class’ horse in the race and can only improve further he is defineately a sprinter so those of us who thought he was a 2000 gns horse are wrong again!
Hoof it
is a Handicapper turned Group horse and its great to see him progress like he’s doing,i have thought as much since he won at Doncaster last year.
Bated Breath
is the unluckiest horse in training and deserves a break,i remember going up to Doncaster for the Lincoln and backing this fellow in the Cammidge,i left the meeting early that day after such dissapointing events and crossed the road with an almost as dissaponted Roger Charlton talking about the Prince Khaled Horse,he was totally convinced this was the best sprinter he had trained,time has shown he too is very ground dependant but given conditions to suit he is a Group 1 winner in waiting,my selection
Elzaam
ran his race but will probably be sent over 7f in future,he didn’t dissapoint in 5th but never looked like winning.I said at the start of the season there was only 2 horses that could beat
So You Think
and both
Workforce
and
Snow Fairy
have tried but failed,fair play to the Aussie invader but if he wins the Arc i’m not the judge i think i am!!
There’s only one way
Seville
can win this years final Classic and thats to repeat his Grand Prix de Paris tactics by making all at a telling pace,that performance alone was enough to win any St Leger,it also marked down
Meandre
as a serious Arc contender and with both horses trading at 10/1 respectively for the above races the 100/1 double looks irresistible! Sea moon will not win on any ground without plenty of cut so 5/4 is way too short,Blue Bunting doesn’t have the class of the last filly to contest the triple crown and win it (Oh so sharp) and Brown Panther just isn’t good enough.
Census
is a horse i like a lot and can see him running a massive race having backed him at 40/1 for this i am quietly confident,
Masked Marvel
has to be placed as i see him as a Gold Cup horse next year but i am staying loyal to a horse i have never lost faith in and have forgiven him more than once for failing to get competitive when there’s no pace,for the first time this year he will at last run over the trip he was bred for over a course that suits his style,those who interpret form literally will P*ss themselves laughing that i think he can turnaround his last run with Sea Moon but i think he will!
I spend many hours studying visual form and have spent more than i care to remember analysing
Seville
. This fellows form figures are less than inspiring..212-20223 and one could question his willingness to put it all in,however i’m of the opinion this fellow is the next
Age of Aquarius
and the step up in trip can do nothing but bring out his endless stamina that hasn’t been seen yet,its also worth mentioning that both horses contested the Grand Prix de Paris and both clocked outstanding time figures,Sevilles the better of the pair! I remember Sevilles Dam running an eyecatching race in the 04 Arc,
Silverskaya
was a Group rated filly herself and apart from Ouija Boards jockey dozing his way round,Silverskayas jockey was positively sleeping!I’m not too bothered about the ground at Doncaster as Seville handles it all,i suppose the softer it gets the more emphasis is put on stamina so that should suit.i see all the 10/1 has now gone today,not that he could possibly go off at such a price anyway,my confidence is such that i just cant see him not being placed even with those form figures,the clocks ticking!
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