‘Gone Fishing’.

[KINGFISHER]

I’m a massive fan of

Rafa Nadal

,he contributed to my biggest ever winning treble 3 yrs ago and i learned that day never to bet on Tennis again,the longest day i call it.I believe

Andy Murray

has everything in his game to be a Wimbledon champion except belief in himself,he needs to take a leaf out of

Rory Mcilroys

book,having blown one major totally through his mindset,he comes back and destroys his field in the Masters.Once the physical skills are honed like a double edged sword the blade will be blunted in no time if the holder of such a weapon doesn’t have the belief he can use it,which brings me onto

Novak Djokovic

,this guy handles a tennis raquet like a Ninja uses his Samurai sword,he has a robotic mixture of

Ivan Lendl

and

Goran Ivanisevic

with a bit of personality thrown in,this has the makings of a phenomenal final,granted both remain free from injury,my heart wants Rafa to win with a thunderous display of aggression but i know bolts of lightening will rain down from his opponent! Cant wait!

[GDC]

Very good replies there and some sound advice, however the main and by far most important is never bet what you cannot afford to lose. I am in the same boat as many in that i went through a stage of being addicted and would not accept it, however once you turn the corner it’s a whole lot easier. Once you know not to bet on every race then you have started, once you don’t have a bet every day then you are well and truly on the road.

We all bet very differently, i for one love the challenge of ante post racing BUT i fully understand those that hate it. I have made far more by doing this than routine racing but still enjoy the big races at week-ends. The racing at major meetings is a better way to gamble as you know the majority of horses are trying!!

KF: Sadly had laptop problems yesterday or i may have been able to persuade you into backing Halicarnassus (who was thrown in on ratings) at 25s and Highland Knight also, 3rd bet was Secret Witness who ran a lovely race.

Zarks: Agree with you on comments about the superb knowledge of both KF and Galaxy, both have given me some excellent winners at fancy prices.

Discipline is the name of the game

[jwildman]

Fortunately, although i’m typically not one for addiction, i have come to terms with the fact that i got dragged in far too deeply, to the point that the value of money seemed to diminish rapidly with each bet made. The ease of online betting no doubt aided that, although i only have myself to blame for depositing at the rate i did. I have thankfully snapped out of this spiral within a month of it beginning, with the worst consequence being a serious talking to from my parents and a move back home for the rest of the summer if i can’t make some of my losses back. I tried my heart out this year with budgeting and being financially conscious, and i was so happy to be able to afford to not go through the major difficulty of moving out, then i go and blow all my efforts and am facing the same set of circumstances i faced after my first university year. But it’s my fault, and i only wish i had caught up with myself sooner. I realised that i broke the cardinal rule – never bet what you cannot afford to lose. Although i’m rather angsty about wanting to recoup some losses so i can afford to stay in my London flat beyond a fortnight’s time, no betting today, and if something ante-post pops up, i’ll head to a bookmakers and do it the hard way, to get a feel for what i’m doing. Strangely, i don’t have a problem stopping betting – i have to be coy and pick very carefully, as i can’t afford to naively place sums of money on rough guesswork.

Jonibake, that

Royal Anthem

loss must have been painfully sharp – and that rather bittersweet tale of being a very flash-in-the-pan prefect is as hilarious as it is telling of the nature of a growing gambling addiction. I’m sorry to hear of your friend – i’m yet to discover if i have caught myself at a recoverable point as you did, or whether i belong to the camp your unfortunate friend does. Time will tell. Haha yes, that is indeed my surname – more wildmun than man when spoken aloud but same difference i guess! Thank you for the advice to invest myself in racing – my interest in the sport has blossomed recently, which culminated in me betting on

Pour Moi

for the Epsom Derby. That was my first. I think seeing

Frankel

charge to victory in the 2000 guineas earlier this year had a profound affect on me and heightened my fascination instantly – it drew me inwards. i shall head to a race meeting (when i can afford to) and invest myself in more than just statistics and form cards. I have a lot to learn, wasn’t careful enough going into this new territory (which i’ve learnt can be very dangerous if you don’t have a complete grip on what you’re dealing with), and i got hit hard as a result.

Discipline and moderation. Thank you GDC and Jonibake for your great words, the amount of support on here from so many wise heads has been amazing. Also, well done to Djokovich, he had Nadal in the bag!

[Rubyisgodinthesaddle]

Nothing wrong with putting big money on betting.

Problem is when you are not thinking. Internet Gambling is one of the most dangerous things you can do especially if you have a full bank account or big credit card limits.

You must find a edge to get ahead…whether its a stable or a team or a golfer that is ready to shoot low.

For instance i will back Aidan O Brien to by Champion Trainer every year and will prob increase my stakes next year to double this year if the squad is good. The market for me is lopsided in favour of British Trainers IMO….the complete lack of Bookmaking was shown when i could get 4/1…yet they had the same information as me about the stable horses in training this year.

[KINGFISHER]

‘and if something ante-post pops up, i’ll head to a bookmakers and do it the hard way, to get a feel for what i’m doing. Strangely, i don’t have a problem stopping betting – i have to be coy and pick very carefully, as i can’t afford to naively place sums of money on rough guesswork’.

Wildman,give me some idea where your train of thought is taking you regarding this years Stewards Cup? There’s currently 136 declared,give me 3 horses and reason why you fancy them!

[Nathan Hughes]

i put my own twist of humour on things which is why i dont contribute to any other part of this forum as some folk just dont find me funny.

……It will be hilarious listening to all the whinge bags kicking up stink when you win TRF poster of the year 2011. They will all be PM’ing Cormack demanding that a recount should take place it. Oh the fury, it will be the 1st time ever the poll gets extended into 2012, trouble is you will end up getting more votes after picking out the winners of the King George and Lexus.

Charles Darwin to conquer the World

[Zarkava]

And you aren’t allowed to pick Evens and Odds! I’ll try this too, although I loath 30 runner handicaps at the best of time, let alone over 6 furlongs and at a track with a ridiculous draw bias.

[thehorsesmouth]

Victoire De Lyphar
Victoire De Lyphar
Victoire De Lyphar

[KINGFISHER]

And you aren’t allowed to pick Evens and Odds! I’ll try this too, although I loath 30 runner handicaps at the best of time, let alone over 6 furlongs and at a track with a ridiculous draw bias.

Nathan,i have forgiven ‘Ginger’ for rigging the votes! TAPK would rather knock his critics out with a bit of Apchamu Jirugi whereas i am just a brightly coloured bird who loves to eat minnows!
Zarkava,i have put the last 2 winners of the Stewards cup up on here at 25/1 and 33/1,i will do my best to make it 3yrs in a row as its a race i have been very lucky with over the years,i currently have 6 of the 136 that i am serious about and yes

Evens and Odds

is one of them! 2 of my selections will struggle to get in if the cut is around the 96 mark as there’s a lot of 100+ horses in it.

[Zarkava]

Beyond Desire is a brilliant front-runner who’s beaten Astrophysical Jet and 2nd to Lady of the Desert. Getting beaten by Night Carnation is nothing to be ashamed by. CD winner and could emulate Lochsong by being a front-running female winner of the Stewards’ Cup. Very fairly weighted off 92. Lochsong won hers off 82 but times have changed. And getting 9lbs off a sprinter like Victoire de Lyphar won’t harm her chances at all.

I like Ritual, who won last week, another one of my notebook horses who I didn’t have a penny on…Group horse in a handicap. OR83 but he’ll have a penalty for his victory I assume?

Mac’s Power would be my other one were it not for his rating – 101. That’s 9lbs to give to Beyond Desire and 18lbs to give to Ritual. Won his race in the Wokingham and I think he’s better than Deacon Blues.

Desert Law’s last run can probably be discounted and I wonder where he’s rated at home in comparison to Night Carnation. Due to run off 97, that’d be giving 5 to Beyond Desire. Obviously rated highly, he ran in the Mill Reef on his 2nd start after going off 6/4F on his debut.

[KINGFISHER]

Victoire De Lyphar
Victoire De Lyphar
Victoire De Lyphar

Tommy,am i that predictable?

Victoire

has been on the sick list,he’s just not firing at the moment,when he does he will come back with a bang,yes he’s on the shortlist you clever dick!

[KINGFISHER]

Glimpses of Group form with

Beyond Desire

sacred one,but off a mark of 92 she has no chance of getting in,

Victoire

was virtually top weight in last years consolation race off 97.

[Zarkava]

She needs 25 to come out. Wouldn’t say it’s out of the question, particularly after the debacle with you thinking Deauville Flyer would be bottom weight Tominator stood out.. Victoire was always going to be on the list, as was Evens and Odds. Good luck finding the other 4, guys!

[yorkiedips]

KF / ALL

Does the 4.10 at York on 13th May influence your thinking at all?

If so then will go and look at the 3 or 4 that immediately sprang into my mind and see what prices they are, if they are entered and if they are likely to get in on their current ratngs.

yorkiedips

[jwildman]

I like a challenge so i’m rising to this one, Kingfisher! My mind’s been waning since the year ended, so i’m doing my research and will be back with my musings on the Steward’s Cup tomorrow or later tonight – and i’ve made an effort not to look at anybody else’s replies as i suspect they have opted into your task! I’ll post three horses as requested, and my reasoning for propositioning them. Please don’t be angry at me if i do terribly and am flawed as i haven’t even considered this race before, but i’ll try my best! I won’t come back until i have my runners, so off i go! (I’ve actually been note-taking for a while now so i”m on my way). Back soon.

[jwildman]

Okay, i’ve had a go, so here are my 3 from 100+. I’ll keep this a bit briefer as my posts have been very long-winded lately and i don’t want to annoy the regulars or sully Kingfisher’s thread with my ramblings, although these on-request choices for the Stewards Cup may do just that

My first horse is

Humidor

(33-1). He was 3rd to

Night Carnation

in the Coral Charge, beating

Pastoral Player

after going off at 25s. Historically he goes very well at Goodwood – winning over 6f at the venue last year in addition to another victory over 5f in April.

Humidor

has shown to be a definite improver with huge potential after performing so well at Sandown, and his Nottingham race beforehand just seemed like an off-day. Showing better as a 4yo than a 3.

My second is

Ritual

(16-1). Here is another improver with an impressive record in lower class races, who won at Sandown on Friday with R L Moore on board after an 8-month break – he’s won his last four starts, each at different circuits on a range of going, and seems to love the distance. Apparently he needs extra weight to make the grade, but if he gets it, his presence could be very telling indeed.

My third horse is

Victoire de Lyphar

(20-1). Trained by David Nicholls, who has great record in the race if trainer form is anything to go by, being the man behind

Evens and Odds

victory in this event last year.

Victoire

ran a miserable race at Ascot last time out, but his previous form suggests it was just a glitch. A string of wins and places show an admirable consistency over 6f, but interestingly, he was beaten by another Nicholls horse,

Joseph Henry

(33-1), at Goodwood in the Stewards’ Sprint over 6f last year.

I also ummed and ahhed over

Hoof It, Evens and Odds, Pastoral Player and Hawkeyethenoo

, which i could have each made a case for. That’s it, sorry if my rookie-readings are all tosh and no game!

[Zarkava]

Well I like Ritual but he has no chance of getting in. Gordon thinks Victoire de Lyphar is the 2nd coming and adores Evens and Odds too. I think Pastoral Player has a decent shout but you’re spot on about Humidor IMO. 2 wins at Goodwood and 1 at Brighton mark him down as a lover of undulations. Ignore his seasonal debuts, he patently needs a run to get going. Other than those, his form figures read 23/122111-0153. He’s a May foal so he’s entitled to get better with age. I suppose the one concern would be that he’s finished 3rd behind 2 fillies and in front of another, so possible question marks as to the quality of the race, and the first 3 were drawn 2-3-1.

Another way of looking at it is that Triple Aspect 1121 at Sandown and he only finished 5th so the quality was much higher than anything he’s run in before at Sandown, and given he’s won this race and finished 2nd in it, that could well be the case.

Haggas has had 2 runners in the past 10 years. They won and placed. Dafeef is his sole entrant this year but he hasn’t run in over 10 months and has no entries. Interesting to see if he gets a prep. He’s also got Kalk Bay and High Standing, neither of which really appeal.

Robert Bastiman’s also got a decent record. 1 winner, 2 placed & 1 unplaced from 4 runners. Singeur his sole entrant, but 12th last year and no wins in fields bigger than 12 or over further than 5f.

James Fanshawe has a similarly good record as Bastiman and has Deacon Blues and Mac’s Power entered. Deacon Blues would be top weight and giving 7lbs to MP rather than getting 2. Mac’s Power won his race in the Wokingham comfortably by 2L. He’s very interesting.

8 of the last 11 Stewards Cup winners ran in the Wokingham.

Victoire de Lyphar would fall into this category, as would Evens and Odds and Mac’s Power.

You also want a 4, 5 or 6yo. Only 3yo winner in 25 years was Danetime and only 1 winner older than 6.

7 of the last 25 winners were drawn in 28 or higher. Of 5 of the 25 winners drawn in a single-figure stall, 2 of them went on to win a Group 1, 1 was placed in a Group 1 and 1 was 4th in a Group 1 and won a Group 2. Rotherfield Flyer finished 8th in the Nunthorpe 3 weeks after the Stewards’ Cup and that was his only run in Group company.

[Author]

Posts