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  • #3799
    Nixer
    Member
    • Total Posts 105

    It’s PGA  weekend and i have placed a couple of bets on the outcome.<br>Just spotted something on the Paddy Power betting in running which may come in handy if you are.like me, planning to bet on the  major upcoming golf events this summer.  

    Ok here it is.

    If you fancy a player due to tee off late in the day on day one you should not place your bet until the  the golf tournament starts. Players who have not  started yet are drifting in the in running market  just because players already out are now under par.  

    My Two lads are on the drift and they yet to hit a ball. Gutted.

    So check the T time on first day before placing your bets.<br>

    #89036
    Nixer
    Member
    • Total Posts 105

    Ones been clipped in now. Still not hit a ball!!

    #89037
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Hi Nixer

    I used to love watching the golf, especially the US Tour late Sunday night, but I find it difficult to stay awake these days.

    Anyhow, I think the market-makers have some model for each tournament that assumes a typical score for the winner. If anyone is on course to beat that score, then all other players are likely to be pushed out even if they haven’t opened their round. Conversely, if no-one is on course to achieve the predicted score, they might shorten up those players who have not yet started.

    It’s common sense, if you think about it. The same thing happens in most competitions. If Chelsea, for the sake of argument, lose their next game before Man Utd play their next match, then Man Utd would shorten up to win the Premiership. If Chelsea win, Man Utd will drift in the market even though they haven’t played.

    #89038
    Nixer
    Member
    • Total Posts 105

    Hi Artemis,

    I don’t  think this  price movement which i am referring to is dependant on players reaching a tournament score which is set before the event. It is a much more short term reaction. If you have the likes of  Woods Mickelson Harrington Clarke or Singh et all on the course before your player is due to tee of and one of these  players goes -1 or -2  then the reaction will be to push players out.  <br>It is almost inevitable that if you have a late T time player  that some big names will be ahead of you and at some stage they will post a score which causes the market to react. At this point your player will be pushed to the next price and that is when you place the bet. <br>10/1 will go 12/1  25/1 will go 33/1 etc. Its not anything major just worth a mention.

    Like you I’m a big fan of the Big events in America and love the Sunday night. PGA this weekend was a bit of a joke and the tournament never got into any sort of flow.   Hopefully the Masters won’t suffer from the smae weather problems but with such crazy weather conditions around  i wouldn’t bet against it.

    #89039
    Artemis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1736

    Hi Nixer,

    I didn’t mean players had to set a total score, having finished their round. The market makers can predict final scores at any stage of any player’s round using a statistical model. They will adjust prices (UP or DOWN) of players who haven’t yet started based on the predicted final scores of all other players out on the course.

    I will definitely stay awake for the Masters – my favourite golf tournament. Let’s hope the sun shines again in Georgia.

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