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Gold Cup 2024

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Viewing 17 posts - 69 through 85 (of 370 total)
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  • #1659153
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Recent trend would be Al Boum Photo, same trainer too

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    #1659154
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
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    Nathan the state don’t lie …

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    #1659155
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing a horse yet to run in a Gold Cup like I did GDC’s last year. Still think he has the ability and lightly enough raced and a genius of a trainer

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    #1659156
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Stats don’t lie
    Did Al Boum Photo not win it twice HDLG??

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    #1659157
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    Al Boum Photo is the only multiple winner of the race since 2010.

    Same trainer, might also continue to be lightly campaigned, but it’s not a great stat when the horse is 2/1.

    I think it’s a 5/1 the field kind of race ante-post at this stage and, while Galopin Des Champs obviously has to head the market, I just think he’s very short and I like a horse who is the same age, has had the same number of career starts, is arguably little more than a novice, has beaten him and is ten times the price.

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    #1659158
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
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    Nathan the stats tell you most struggle to win another race …. Check , tell me I’m wrong

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    #1659159
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    GDC is in my view the best horse to run in the Gold Cup since Kauto Star so more likely to be a stat breaker
    I agree 2’s is short enough at this stage and took him on myself with the opening post of this thread.

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    #1659160
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    Fair enough, Nathan, game of opinions – interesting discussion IMO.

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    #1659161
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    “Nathan the stats tell you most struggle to win another race …. Check , tell me I’m wrong”

    You are not wrong

    but

    Put it this way.
    Horses that run in the Craven don’t win the Guineas
    It was a good job Henry Cecil didn’t run Frankel in the Craven then

    So my point of view is I agree with you but think GDC’s is better than most Gold Cup winners, has a trainer that has trained one to win back to back in recent years. GDC’s has won twice at the Cheltenham festival and bar an unlucky landing at the last would have won another and is young enough to have at least another year in him.

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    #1659164
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
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    The Gold Cup is the hardest race in racing , the ultimate test , you need pace , jumping and most importantly to stay , GDC was exhausted after the GC , I’ll be suprised if he hasn’t left it mark , look at APT ….

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    #1659176
    greenasgrass
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    “Al Boum Photo is the only multiple winner of the race since 2010.”

    Of the Irish G1 3 mile chases:

    The JN wine/Ladbrokes has 1 multiple winner in that time- Road to Respect- though Kauto Star won it for the second time in 2010
    The Lexus/Savills/Christmas chase has none
    The Irish Gold Cup has one
    The Punchestown Gold Cup has none

    Three mile chasing generally is attritional and it’s fair enough to say that 2-1 is short for any 3 mile G1 at this stage, but the Gold Cup isn’t some mythical horse crusher that destroys the one it loves the most.

    #1659186
    Mike007
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    “How many GC winners have followed up in the GC Mike ?”

    Al Boum Photo, recently and same trainer. Al Boum Photo couldn’t beat Kemboy at Punchestown after winning the Gold Cup, the following year Al Boum Photo won the Gold Cup again and Kemboy finished unplaced. The Gold Cup doesn’t ‘finish off’ every horse for the following season.

    Mullins is used to bringing back horses to win again at Cheltenham, so i’m not too worried and will leave it to you all with the tricky task of finding one that beats him. ;o)

    #1659192
    Avatar photoHe Didnt Like Ground
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    Ok in the last 10 years how many winners have won another race , Al boum won a GC , Native River some Grade 2 Bob’s Worth won a hurdle and Minella Indo a match …. The rest …. finished and not the same , the stars don’t lie , you take GC horses on , Mike why didn’t GDC win at Punchestown

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    #1659195
    greenasgrass
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    Sizing John won the Punchestown gold cup on his next start and the John Durkan – by 7 lengths- at the start of the next season. He went to pot after that (broken pelvis IIRC- maybe more bad luck, being a big horse and a 3 mile chaser generally, than some special time bomb planted in him at Cheltenham).

    Coneygree was a crock anyway, and Lord Windermere was to NH what Serpentine was to the Flat (speaking of Epsom, you could look at a list of the past 10 winners of the Derby and say that the Derby is more of a wrecker than the Cheltenham GC).

    Minella Indo locking horns with Frodon round Kempton probably did more to knock his campaign off than winning the GC the previous season. King George is tough enough as L’Homme Presse’s connections found out last year.

    As far as Native River is concerned- the Tizzards always wanted all the sweeties in the shop, it’s amazing the horse lasted as long as he did.

    Willie doesn’t get tempted by the King George – or Betfair- for his good horses (see also- Allaho- a big and therefore fragile horse gently nursed into his second Ryanair win). Guaranteed GDC won’t go 3 miles at or before Christmas. You could nearly be sure that he will go John Durkan again, if the horse and ground are just right, and most of the other handful of runners will be Closutton horses and they’ll all tip round gently till the last fence. Then Irish Gold Cup…maybe, if the ground is right and the opposition looks suitably weak, otherwise straight to Cheltenham. If things not perfect for John Durkan, then skip that, hack up at Tramore and straight to Cheltenham.

    “Mullins is used to bringing back horses to win again at Cheltenham, so i’m not too worried and will leave it to you all with the tricky task of finding one that beats him. ;o)”
    – Mike is spot on.

    #1659197
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    That Gold Cup trial around new year at Cheltenham (forget the name because they keep changing names) is a bloodbath for Gold Cup hopes

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    #1659200
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    When the debate is about whether a race leaves its mark, it’s not about finding one to beat the winner of it because it’s the better horse, it’s about whether that winner will beat itself because it’s never the same horse again.

    A lot of punters struggle with opposing the horse with the best form – which Galopin Des Champs has by some margin – but at the odds value punters may look at the subsequent record of past winners, consider the fact the horse himself already got beat next time out and look elsewhere for value.

    It’s not rocket science and it’s not denigrating Galopin Des Champs’s ability either.

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    #1659201
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    All these grade 1 3 mile +chases have the chance to leave a mark on any horse
    Thistlecrack never made it to the Gold Cup after that ding dong with Many Clouds in the trial
    many of the betfair chases run on bottomless going can leave a mental scar etc
    The Gold Cup is the Monster of monsters but not the only one

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Viewing 17 posts - 69 through 85 (of 370 total)
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