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Can we find any horse to beat Bobs Worth regaining his crown next year?
Novices aren’t up to much except for Simonsig who looks set for a 2m campaign next season.
Silviniaco Conti still comes out of his last race an unknown quantity up the Cheltenham hill with his fall when seemingly going well (although he got up a tired horse it seemed), every chance he could serve it up to him, love to see him and Bobs Worth in the Hennessy in November, I feel he is Bobs Worth major rival.
Al Ferof had a lot of good horses pounded into submission at 2m4f, whether he would stay is an unknown, I would see him as a King George winner.
Then there would be the Ryanair winner Cue Card, obviously didn’t do too well at his first attempt at 3m, maybe with good ground he’d be a serious threat, certainly has the class of Bobs Worth, obviously not the staying power as of yet.
They’d be my four that could give him a go, feel Sir Des Champs probably cant beat him, even though he wants good, I felt he handled the soft better than Bobs Worth did.
Winner for me would be Bob again, feel he can be more highly regarded than Denman, when its all said and done.
Grabbed a bit of William Hill’s 6/1 about Bobs Worth for next years Gold Cup, I can’t see any danger at this stage irrespective of the ground. Still worth a wager at the 9/2. Doubled up with My Tent or Yours @ 8/1 for Champion Hurdle also, although big danger to this one now with The New One.
Boston Bob seems only possible contender from this year’s batch of novices; think there is much improvement to come, tho ultimately he may be a bit slow.
I agree that this year’s novice chasers look below-average. I guess that is the variance of racing. Last year’s bunch are superb, but we can’t expect it every season.
Katenko
is a dark horse who I could currently see rising to Gold Cup standard.
Fingal Bay
has something to prove after missing this season but is another who might be worth watching with this race in mind. I don’t fancy either at this stage, but look forward to them testing their credentials in the early races of next season.
Bob’s Worth looks good, it’s true. However, I really can’t be arsed with going for the favourite. It’s not that he’s not a good horse – he’s an excellent horse – I just feel I should try to get him beat.
But what can get him beat? I’m inclined to go for what’ll be a second seasoner. However, let’s face it, the RSA was hardly packed with quality.
So I’m not going to look at the RSA to find the winner of next year’s Gold Cup.
Instead – and you may consider this to be insanity, but bear with me – I’m going to look at the National Hunt Chase.
Step forward, Back In Focus.
You may well think I’m on drugs right now, but listen up.
He’s got Grade One Form.
He stays, and stays, and stays.
He’s unbeaten over fences.
He gets the hill.
He won’t finish out of the first three if he runs.
He’s the most exciting horse over three miles for quite a while.
He’s 33s.
Back In Focus, ladies and gentlemen. You know it makes sense.
FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
I would probably chance at him if the race was 5m2f against Bobs Worth and the likes, would probably back Bobs Worth at 4m2f to beat him.
Simply put he doesn’t have the pace to compete at GC level imo, Cue Card seems a nicer chance at bigger odds of 25/1
If Back In Focus is the most exciting horse seen over three miles seen for a while, then why were they running him over four miles at the festival?
Who knows you may have a point, but hard to see him being quick enough to win a good ground Gold Cup. On the plus side, he does have good form tied in with Lyreen Legend.
Much as I’m a fan of Bobs, there are legitimate reasons for taking him on in next year’s Gold Cup. (And no I’m not talking about Boston Bob, who has about two stones to find.)
For starters, recent history has taught us that multiple winners of the Blue Riband are rare. Sure, Best Mate and Kauto bucked that trend, but I think that is more misleading than anything, as they were truly exceptional chasers who don’t come along very often. One-off Gold Cup winners are basically the norm.
There’s a specific reason for this in my view. For example Long Run and Denman were both expected to win multiple Gold Cups, but it didn’t happen. There’s something about the race that tends to leave it’s mark.
Watch the replay of Bob’s Gold Cup, and the way he really has to battle and is driven out after the last by Geraghty, you are immediately reminded of the ultra-tough race that Denman had in 2008, and the way he was never the same horse since.
Basically he had a really tough race and you could argue that he’s a really tough horse, but so was Denman and he couldn’t recover. Also don’t forget that Hurricane Fly wasn’t the same horse last year- it took him a year to recover from his first Champion Hurdle.
It’s not just Bobs Worth you’d have to be worried about getting over that race.
Sir Des Champs got going twice in that race yet looked out on his feet.
Silvinaco Conti took a very bad fall on his head.
Long Run has fought out the finsih of a few gruelling GC’s now.
With that theory you would have to be tempted into backing horses like First Lieutenant or Cue Card which are very good options if you are thinking like that.
I’d think he would be alright though, he recovered from a Hennessey good enough and an RSA, if he is given the time, he is going to be awfully hard to beat, can only see the same route with being with Nicky Henderson, he’d have an idea how to go about with this horse.
Also don’t forget that Hurricane Fly wasn’t the same horse last year- it took him a year to recover from his first Champion Hurdle.
Whatever the reason for Hurricane Fly’s below par performance last year, I don’t think you can say with any degree of certainty that his first Champion Hurdle win left it’s mark: he put up one of his best performances at Punchestown that year. From everything that Willie Mullins has said it seems most likely that he didn’t summer well, and he struggled to get any condition on him. If this was the case it is easy to see how his exertions at Leopardstown last spring may have took their toll on him at Cheltenham. However, in my opinion it is not fair to blame this on the 2011 Champion Hurdle, given his subsequent Punchestown romp.
I’m sure you are right Horse’s Mouth, but my initial point remains, that the reason that multiple winners of the Gold Cup are historically rare, is because the special demands of the race leave their mark on those who win it.
Another one to throw into the mixer for next year’s Gold Cup must be
Rocky Creek
. With the Irish novices much of a muchness this year, he could well be the novice chaser to take forward into next year.
Missing Cheltenham in the novice year worked wonders with Silviniaco Conti and Kauto Star, so maybe he will also benefit from the patient approach.
i agree that bobs worth is a very good horse but i would be weary of backing him for gold cup next yeari agree with elgransenor1 he had an extreamly hard race and so to did sir des champs they really gave it there all and time will tell if the race has left its mark
i agree that bobs worth is a very good horse but i would be weary of backing him for gold cup next yeari agree with elgransenor1 he had an extreamly hard race and so to did sir des champs they really gave it there all and time will tell if the race has left its mark
Indeed they all had a hard race, but Bobs was running away at the finish, not the sign of a horse who was out on his feet and ready for collapse. He’s as hard as nails, i’m sure he’ll be back as good as ever. One things for sure, rightly or wrongly, Henderson can’t be accused of going to the well once too often with his horses.
If Back In Focus is the most exciting horse seen over three miles seen for a while, then why were they running him over four miles at the festival?
Because the owners thought that the Boston Bob was less likely to win the Jewson (and thus bag themselves a novice double) than he was the RSA. I still maintain BIF would have won the RSA.
FLD
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Al Ferof is the one that currently jumps out at me from the current prices. Won the Paddy Power quite cosily, surely how well he comes back from the injury is the only thing that would stop him getting a place?
Also been looking for a price for On His Own can’t seem to find one, probably as he is unlikely to head to the gold cup but mullins ran Hedgehunter before and OHO has a bit of class about him winning a grade 2 hurdle, possibly the horse isnt suited to Aintree, another one id fancy for a place.
Don’t rule out Sprinter Sacre going for a Queen Mother-Gold Cup double. Caroline Mould was interviewed on ‘At The Races’, talking about the step up to 2 1/2 miles and Matt was pushing her about the possibility of stepping up to 3 miles. She didn’t discount it. He will definitely go for the King George, as Bob’s Worth doesn’t go right handed and should he skate up again, the Gold Cup on the Friday, after an easy win in the Champion, will be very tempting.
It is time for the doubters to be quietened. Free your mind, accept the obvious and rejoice in his ability.
I’m not even sure that he couldn’t add the Grand National, to make it a treble.
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