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It is good to see a more competitive Gold Cup that last year’s race. Although there isn’t much depth beyond the first few in the market, those are plenty good enough to create a strong renewal.
Bobs Worth is my idea of the winner. I am slightly disturbed at his lay-off since December, but entirely trust Nicky Henderson’s skill in readying a top horse for this. Bobs Worth has exemplary course form, jumps accurately and posted one of the standout handicap performances of the season at Newbury.
I am rather dubious of the formlines that revolve around Long Run. Silviniaco Conti ground him down at Haydock, then Long Run scrambled home in a King George populated by non-stayers (bar Captain Chris), heavy-ground haters and dodgepots. Captain Chris at least was a decent rival, but Long Run beating him by less distance than 2011 was not especially impressive to me. I think Long Run has regressed a little from his peak.
Silviniaco Conti looks quite solid. He is a smidge better than Long Run (not the compliment it used to be), but Paul Nicholls has some real disppointments with Sam Winner and Wonderful Charm on Thursday that cause concern. Celestial Halo did run very well, though.
When I saw Sir Des Champs win the Jewson last year, I immediately thought "Gold Cup". He beat a handy bunch too. He does need to step forward from his runs in Ireland, though. I am a major critic of Flemenstar and see that horse as vastly overrated, so any form that ties in closely with him I treat with caution.
Of the outsiders, Cape Tribulation looks very solid. Nigel Twiston-Davies gets his horses hard-fit for their first runs, so giving Imperial Commander weight and a beating on his best ground in the Argento was a huge run. Captain Chris jumps badly right-handed nowadays and is simply unbackable at Cheltenham.
The Giant Bolster could certainly run into a place. He is solid, yet unspectacular. Only managing second in a weaker renewal last year doesn’t bode too well for this attempt.
People remembering Synchronised will fancy Sunnyhillboy due to their fairly similar staying profiles. Synchronised won a Lexus. Sunnyhillboy would not do that given a fence headstart. Monbeg Dude and Wayward Prince likewise.
Conclusion:
1st – Bobs Worth
2nd – Silviniaco Conti
3rd – Cape Tribulation- Total Posts 764
I can’t get away from Long Run and maybe a Bobs Worth/Long Run forecast.
Just wish paddypower would start working so i could place some bets!! Been down for about 10minutes now.
Silviano Conti lacks the battle hardened experience. I think he will tire on the ground today and wont be in the frame. His trainer has had a poor week given his status and I am looking to Henderson to provide the 1st and 2nd today. Both have course form and will get home at the trip. I would hope to see Bobs Worth coming past Long Run on the run in, with the main worry being any jumping errors for both contenders. I never warmed to Sir Des Champs despite his win at last years meeting. I am not sure he will get home under these conditions and the form with Flemenstar looks dodgy to my eyes, with both being worn down by the admirable but hardly bullet like Tidal Bay.
Good luck to all having a bet and I hope its a memorable race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Incredible and what an exciting race.
Got to feel a bit sorry for SC but absolutely sure he’d have been outstayed.
Lee
Brilliant race.
What a gusty horse Bobs Worth is, all heart is that little horse. I admire that horse so much, cracking horse.
Great race.
race panned out exactly as I hoped. (which is rare) others travelled better through the race but like all champions, bob was there when the garlands were handed out
Great race, the stayer coming through to win. Bobs Worth is as genuine as they come. Raced three times at the Festival, three wins. Good to see another Newbury Hennessey winner on top in the Blue Riband. Feel for those with Tidal Bay ante-post vouchers, he’d have loved those conditions.
Des might give Bob more to do under less testing conditions another year. Although Bob will probably find more if neccessary. Silviniaco might get some Cheltenham experience next season. But although going well, of all principles I had most stamina doubts about him, so should be going easily at that stage. If there is a novice to make up in to a contender, the Bob from Boston might give them all a race if all is ok after a fall.
Value Is Everythingcan’t believe they are having a debate on the betfair forum about whether or not conti would have won if he had stayed up. are they serious? horse fell because he was tired.
just watched a replay of bobs worth run. two observations. firstly the runner up ran a fantastic race as well. he could well win a gold cup in years to come. but mccoy tracked long run through the race, to be honest I was surprised he rode him so handy. Perhaps he viewed long run as his biggest danger?
my other observation is that however tough bobs worth is, he had a hell of a tough battle there. I just wonder if it might leave his mark on him, because it did bring back memories of denman’s 2008 win- arguably he was never quite the same force after that
can’t believe they are having a debate on the betfair forum about whether or not conti would have won if he had stayed up. are they serious? horse fell because he was tired.
Are
YOU
serious? He was on the bridle! He got slightly unsighted by Sir Des Champs, which possibly contributed.
I am not saying Silviniaco Conti would have won, but form suggests he would have finished ahead of Long Run at least. I suspect he would have been second. Hopefully we will find out next year.
- Total Posts 764
Ginge I think you might be right as long as Paul from the End of the Town stays well clear!
And Young Fella I wouldn’t be so sure about Conti finishing ahead of LR, LR never runs to his potential in his first race of the season, just look through his record over the last 3 years or so. I bet on LR e/w in this but backed Conti when they raced against each other earlier in the season because LR tends to need a run.
Maybe there is something in Long Run needing his first races of the season, BHison. I think his Betfair Chase performances of the past two years surpass or equal what he has done in the last two Gold Cups, though.
- Total Posts 764
He looked to be really drained at the end of the race today didn’t he, I think it was trying hold off SDC for as long as he could followed by having to chase down BW that took it out of him.
It’s all talking in theory though – I guess we’ll never know who would’ve finished ahead. We might just have to wait until this time next year to find out
can’t believe they are having a debate on the betfair forum about whether or not conti would have won if he had stayed up. are they serious? horse fell because he was tired.
Are
YOU
serious? He was on the bridle! He got slightly unsighted by Sir Des Champs, which possibly contributed.
I am not saying Silviniaco Conti would have won, but form suggests he would have finished ahead of Long Run at least. I suspect he would have been second. Hopefully we will find out next year.
oh i’m deadly serious. I posted up here a few days ago,that having reviewed his videos he gets tired towards the end of his races, and his jumping falls apart somewhat as a consequence.
don’t get me wrong i’m of the opinion that sil conti is a very good horse. easily one of the best staying chasers around. but the race hadn’t even began in earnest at that stage- he’d have had to outbattle three very good animals in the home straight.
ruby often gives the impression he’s travelling better on a horse than he actually is. he always just sit’s there motionless. trying to communicate confidence to the horse, probably. also when the horse fell, he laid there for a few seconds- the sign of a tired animal.
I’m very confident that if sil conti had stayed up, he wouldn’t have been placed, let alone won. having said that I think he might well jizz up at aintree in the betfair bowl- his ideal conditions, a flat track and quick ground.
The way I see it, nothing was going to beat Bobs Worth today. And for anybody who says Sir des Champs could do it on better ground some other race some other day – don’t think so, at least not at Cheltenham. Bobs Worth prefers better ground too. The thing is, not one of them wants to win more than he does. Oh, and Barry Geraghty rides him with total confidence and knows how he races, more than I can say for some others this week. Brilliant! Brilliant! Brilliant!
And I don’t think that the race knocked the stuffing out of Bobs Worth either Elgransenor. He’s tougher than that.
I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one, ElGranSenor.
You are right about Ruby Walsh being a very quiet rider who can nurse a horse around, but he does subtly niggle a horse not travelling smoothly. The little hand movements on Hurricane Fly in the middle stages of the Champion Hurdle would be a good example. He was motionless on Silviniaco Conti.
Silviniaco Conti idles and gives the illusion of a wearier horse at the end of his races to my eyes. There would be no shame in tiredness at the end of winning the tough races he has won either. He did outslog a Gold Cup winner in the Betfair Chase. Even Kauto Star was getting legless after doing that in 2011. I agree that his jumping deteriorates but surely jumping when sprinting at the end of a race does make mistakes more likely.
Regarding the horse taking a few seconds to rise from his fall, that was hardly surprising given that the horse had just come down on his neck at full speed. He’ll be sore in the morning.
I tipped Bob’s Worth and am confident he would have won even if Silviniaco Conti kept his feet. Even so, I do strongly believe that this horse had plenty left to offer.
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