Going and Condition Changes

[Bulwark]

Have always thought that when the going changes, there are usually some good opportunities to get value.

Today at doncaster the going would have been expected to be gd-sft/sft so many of the contenders would have been selected from their yards and prepped on that basis, with it coming up gd-fm there are few potentially decent prices amongst the contenders.

Doncaster 1445 – The Spring Mile

1pt e/w 1pt win Flawed Genius 40-1 (Bet365)

This horse ran an absolute stormer in the Britannia last season, and if there is a fast pace on gd-fm, he should be well worth his price as he is down in the weights since that win.

Manassas 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 14-1

Horse was generally thought of as being quite good as a 2yo (running in the marcel boussac), and on his only start on gd-fm he ran a complete stormer, and looks to be actioned for the surface, which earns a second chance after two subsequent defeats on a slower surface. Not a guaranteed stayer but f the pace is sedate then he has a chance.

[Bulwark]

6 pts out

34.5pts returned

+28.5 pts profit

Gutted he won at 22s though…

[goodlife]

Well done with Manassas,Bulwark. It certainly wasn’t good/firm ground there
today,though, as Expresso Star’s victory shows. He looks a very nice prospect, by the way.

[Bulwark]

Its possible that expresso star handled the ground, however the first 3 races definitely appeared to be gd-fm, and the results read that way. The Lincoln itself wouldnt really have read that way to me, and perhaps the rain had soaked into the ground with it being churned up by that stage but then there are other possible factors to explain the result such as was Expresso Star just in the right place relative to the pace, and simply just well clear of todays opposition. Zaahid goes well on gd-fm, and Fliando I would expect the same of, and he was about in the finish. Mias Boy I would think is one for good or worse ground, but then he did look to be well in on those.

I would expect that it was still gd-fm today, Expresso star is after all not that unlikely to handle gd-fm on pedigree and connections were backing him heavily for a win, despite all the talk of him maybe being pulled out so IMo it was Gd-fm (on the stright track at least).

[Bulwark]

Newbury 210

Felday 2pt win @ 14-1 (W. Hills)

Silver Games 1pt e/w @ 40-1 (Sportingbet)

Baycat 1pt e/w @ 80-1 (Totesport)

Quite a decent little race with some good prices. The going at Newbury was reported as good yesterday but today is given as gd-sft so hard to know just how much cut there is in the ground but it should be considerable.

Felday is the one I would make favorite on these conditions so 14-1 isnt a bad price on him.

Baycat went well early last season but his form tailed off quickly as the ground improved, perhaps it was his early precociousness that led to him winning early last season but I will give him another chance at a decent with some cut in the ground.

Silver Games wants soft ground to show her best but hard to know how soft the ground is at newbury.

Newbury 240

Sonny Red 2pt win @ 12-1

Fallandby 1pt win @ 11-1

Both have decent ground for decent runs and both go well fresh. Sonny Red looks extremely well weighted on what he is capable of aswell.

Newbury 315

Akhenaten 1pt e/w @ 66-1

With the ground coming up Gd-Sft Im not sure Mick Channons horse should really be a 66-1 shot.

[Bulwark]

Newbury 310 (tomorrow)

Please Sing 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 25-1

(Bet365)

Last years Cherry Hinton winner loves a bit of juice underfoot, and hasnt had such conditions since that Victory, I like Maoineach but Please Sing looks and absolute e/w steal at 25s.

Newbury 235

Mias Boy 2pts win @ 12-1

Fanjura 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 25-1

1pt win Slugger O’Toole @ 33-1

Really think these 3 are well priced and fany Fanjura to run well off a low weight on tomorrows conditions.

[Bulwark]

215 Salisbury

Countrywide City 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 40-1 (with Paddy Power)

[Gerald]

bump

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