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Hopefully 3 from 3 in an hours time!
Shame about the non-runner Ben, hope Harry Angel is OK.
Not including non-runners in stakes and returns:
Stakes 277
Returns 436.08 (incl. 10p R4)
Profit +159.08 pointsValue Is EverythingThe Gurkha and Galileo Gold have the best form and of the two I prefer the former. Run of the race suited the latter at Ascot. However, am not so sure they should be so far in front of some of the others, even though they come from the two in form trainers of O’Brien and Palmer. Awtaad beat an admitedly slightly below par Galileo Gold in the Irish 2000. Wasn’t that far behind the betting principles in the St James’s Palace. Not quite of the tactical disadvantage of The Gurkha, but has only 1/2 a length and 1 1/4 to make up. Needs to overcome a poor draw and untested on a firm surface. Cape Cross progeny usually act on it, but there is a doubt until proven. Does Awtaad have just one third the chance of his old rivals – as the market suggests?
I don’t fancy Ribchester,Fahy hasn’t done that well at Goodwood over the years. Obviously gets a mile from his Guineas third, but personally got doubts about whether Ribchester is as effective at a mile and the ground probably too firm (tuesday times suggested near to firm). Although rain is forcast so chance may improve.
Toormore ran poorly in the Summer Mile last time, is inconsistent and had plenty of chances. 4th in the Queen Anne goes some way to prove he’s not up to winning this unless getting an easy lead (seems unlikely).
Kodi Bear seems to have gone backwards since last year. Always had his quirks (remember the swerving?) and – after seeing him in the paddock at Newbury – temperament may be catching up with him. First time cheek pieces now tried.
Could see So Beloved running well – as he did to “win” the Betfred Mile as well as the Supreme here. Couldn’t paddle through the mud last time out. Possible for a place, but can’t see him making the required improvement to win.
Gabrial is usually the one to sit out the back, let the rest try to win and then come through beaten horses to pick up third spot. This looks a more competitive race.
One who could surprise is Richard Pankhurst. On the face of it the worst horse in the field. But also perhaps the least exposed. Well bred, very lightly raced and has done well considering a stop – start career. Only beaten around 3 1/2 lengths 5th (around 1 1/2 by the 2nd Dutch Connection) in Summer Mile. With that his first run for 8 months, could show big step forward in form here. That’s not to say he’s got a big chance. Punters don’t back a 50/1 shot because they believe it has a good chance of winning, they back it because they believe it has a better than 2% chance.
Another who looks over-priced is Lightning Spear. Having his first run for 8 months/for David Simcock since leaving Olly Stevens, career best when finishing just 1 3/4 lengths behind Tepin in Queen Anne, making up a deal of ground in the final furlong. Could easily improve again. Probably needs luck in running, but double figure prices look too generous to ignore.
Revised My 100% Book:
2/1 The Gurkha, 3/1 Galileo Gold, 13/2 Awtaad, 15/2 Lightning Spear, 16/1 Ribchester, 25/1 Toormore, 33/1 Richard Pankhurst, 40/1 Kodi Bear, 50/1 So Beloved, 100/1 Gabrial.Sussex Stakes
9 points each way @ 50/1 (B365) Richard Pankhurst* (min 40/1)22 points each way @ 10/1 (B365 1/4 odds) Lightning Spear* (min 17/2)
Value Is Everything2:35 Goodwood
23 points each way @ 12/1 (Sportsbook) The Major General* (min 9/1)Value Is Everything2:35 Goodwood
23 points each way @ 12/1 (Sportsbook) The Major General* (min 9/1)saver:
22 points @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingSussex Stakes
9 points each way @ 50/1 (B365) Richard Pankhurst* (min 40/1)22 points each way @ 10/1 (B365 1/4 odds) Lightning Spear* (min 17/2)
Saver:
31 points @ 2/1 (B365) The Gurkha (min 2/1)Value Is Everything2:35 Goodwood
23 points each way @ 12/1 (Sportsbook) The Major General* (min 9/1)saver:
22 points @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses (min 7/2)30 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Qatari Hunter* (min 15/2)(£31 available)
Value Is Everything2:35 Goodwood
23 points each way @ 12/1 (Sportsbook) The Major General* (min 9/1)saver:
22 points @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses (min 7/2)30 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Qatari Hunter* (min 15/2)(£31 available)
saver:
3 points @ 43/1 (betfair) Goldmember (min 40/1)(£3 available) :lol:
another:
1 point @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses )min 7/2)Value Is EverythingShogun 6/1, why? Confused
Granted the stable are in cracking form, but the hoese’s form doesn’t warrent anything like 6/1. Yet to prove himself at 12f and hasn’t run well for a while. For sure he’s dropping in grade, but beaten 10 1/2, 43 and 11 lengths in his last 3 runs, all at Group 1 level. Surely there’s a progressive sort in this race to beat him? Doesn’t seem to be progressing. May be they think he’s better on a firm surface, but if so why hasn’t he run on it in 10 starts? 6 or 7/1 is a Lay…In contrast to stable companion The Major General @ around 12/1. I make him a fair 11.5% 15/2 shot compared to Shogun 9% 10/1. Think Ryan could be on the wrong horse. May be they’ve worked them at home, but Shogun is always likely to show more speed than middle distance/stayer The Major General. I like the form of the Curragh 1m2f handicap. Only beaten just over a length by Qatari Hunter giving the winner 11 lbs off a mark of 100. Front running there and possibly a little flattered, however, there doesn’t seem to be that much pace on here either. Could get an easy lead, althouh expect Prize Money to return to prominent tactics which suited him far better than dropped out last time. If it poored down he might come in to it, but with a roundish action the Godolphin horse may need good ground. Qatari Hunter is my other main bet. Although has a little to find on these weights is progressing fast and knows how to win. Increased trip could bring out big improvement. 7 or 8/1 worth taking.
Goldmember and Harrison seem held by Platitude. Harrison probably exposed (ditto Star Of Madrid). Goldmember seems over-priced @ around 40/1. Lightly raced and although behind Harrison at Newmarket could have more improvement in him. But will need the race to be run to his advantage (overly strong pace) to have any chance.
Stoute pair deserve to be favourites, Platitude has his chance, but if there is one to walk away with this it is Ulysses. Disappointed in Derby, but lacked experience for that. Stable hit form all of a sudden and I was there at Newbury. It was only a maiden, but the way he went clear lingers long in the memory. Good looking horse who displayed an action likely to be suited by a sound surface; so far raced only on good-soft.My 100% Book:
100/30 Ulysses, 5/1 Platitude, 13/2 Qatari Hunter, 15/2 The Major General, 9/1 Prize Money, 10/1 Shogun, 11/1 Harrison, 22/1 Steel Of Madrid, 28/1 Goldmember.I’ve laid Shogun @ 6/1 but don’t put my lays up on this thread.
Value Is EverythingI’ve had a look at the Molecombe, but there’s so much pace in that race, impossible to work out. Might play in-running.
Value Is Everything2:35 Goodwood
23 points each way @ 12/1 (Sportsbook) The Major General* (min 9/1)saver:
22 points @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses (min 7/2)30 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Qatari Hunter* (min 15/2)(£31 available)
saver:
3 points @ 43/1 (betfair) Goldmember (min 40/1)(£3 available)
another:
1 point @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses )min 7/2)Making Ulysses a main bet:
Another:
25 points @ 5/1 (B365) Ulysses* (min 7/2)Value Is EverythingSussex Stakes
9 points each way @ 50/1 (B365) Richard Pankhurst* (min 40/1)22 points each way @ 10/1 (B365 1/4 odds) Lightning Spear* (min 17/2)
Saver:
31 points @ 2/1 (B365) The Gurkha (min 2/1)Another:
30 points @ 5/2 (b365) The Gurkha* (min 85/40)Value Is EverythingTook me a few seconds to work that one out Ben. :lol:
I’m hoping for Lightning Spear or Richard Pankhurst.
2:35 Goodwood
23 points each way @ 12/1 (Sportsbook) The Major General* (min 9/1)saver:
22 points @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses (min 7/2)30 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Qatari Hunter* (min 15/2)(£31 available)
saver:
3 points @ 43/1 (betfair) Goldmember (min 40/1)(£3 available)
another:
1 point @ 7/2 (B365) Ulysses )min 7/2)Making Ulysses a main bet:
Another:
25 points @ 5/1 (B365) Ulysses* (min 7/2)Ulysses 1st
The Major General 2nd
Qatari Hunter 4thAs I predicted, The Major General got the run of the race and finished ahead of Shogun. Shame he got beat but got a 78.2 return. Got the winner anyway.
With BOG my Ulysses 7/2 converted to 9/2 brings a return of 126.50
Ulysses 5/1 return 150…So for the 2:35
Total Stakes 127
Total Return 354.7
Profit on race +227.7 pointsFingers crossed for the Sussex.
Value Is Everything
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