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3:15 York
38 points @ 8/1 (PP) Mattmu* (min 13/2)50 points @ 11/4 (B365) Magical Memory* (min 11/4)
Value Is Everything3:15 York
38 points @ 8/1 (PP) Mattmu* (min 13/2)50 points @ 11/4 (B365) Magical Memory* (min 11/4)
20 points @ 20/1 (PP) Eastern Impact* (min 16/1)
Value Is Everything3:45 York
52 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) Fireglow* (min 4/1)(£58 available)Value Is Everything3:45 York
52 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) Fireglow* (min 4/1)(£58 available)19 points @ 14/1 (B365) Harlequeen* (min 13/1)
Value Is Everything3:15 York
44 points @ 7/1 (SJ) Foundation* (min 11/2)
38 points @ 6/4 (betfair place) Foundation (min 11/8)
11 points @ 15/2 (B365) Deauville (min 7/1)Value Is Everything2016 Epsom Derby
24 points @ 20/1 (B365) Deauville*61 points @ 5/1 (WH) Wings Of Desire* (min 4/1)
Value Is Everything2:45 Newbury
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Star Storm* (min 9/1)
48 points @ 4/1 (B365) Carnachy* (min 7/2)Value Is Everything3:55 Newbury
41 points @ 11/1 Dutch Connection* (min 15/2)
27 points @ 12/1 Mahsoob* (min 10/1)Value Is Everything2:45 Newbury
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Star Storm* (min 9/1)
48 points @ 4/1 (B365) Carnachy* (min 7/2)I notice both you and Joni are opposing Eagle Top. I don’t know how to assess the race given Eagle Top is easily top rated but might be unfit. I suppose one might guess he has maybe a 25% chance of running to form, a 25% chance of flopping and a 50% chance of running a few pounds below normal. It’s this last possibility that confuses me as he could still win even if not quite at his best.I am curious to know your reasoning process.
3:55 Newbury
41 points @ 11/1 Dutch Connection* (min 15/2)
27 points @ 12/1 Mahsoob* (min 10/1)40 points @ 6/1 (L) Limato* (min 11/2)
Value Is Everything2:45 Newbury
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Star Storm* (min 9/1)
48 points @ 4/1 (B365) Carnachy* (min 7/2)I notice both you and Joni are opposing Eagle Top. I don’t know how to assess the race given Eagle Top is easily top rated but might be unfit. I suppose one might guess he has maybe a 25% chance of running to form, a 25% chance of flopping and a 50% chance of running a few pounds below normal. It’s this last possibility that confuses me as he could still win even if not quite at his best.I am curious to know your reasoning process.
You’re right that Eagle Top has by far the best form and could win even if not 100% Kasparov. However there are quite a few negatives. Inconsistent away from Ascot and needed his reappearance quite badly last season. Not straightforward, from the Gull Wing / Sariska family. I also believe him to be a 1m4f+ horse rather than a 1m2f to 1m4f, there’s not much pace in the race today and seemed unsuited by making his own running last year in a similar event. Don’t get me wrong, even with the negatives in my book has the best chance, double anything else; 5/4 and I would’ve been backing him.
50% Evens Eagle Top, 24% Carnachy, 10.5% 17/2 Star Storm, 10.5% Ayrad, 17/2, 5% Astronereus 20/1.
Carnachy is an improver who can race near the front and have the run of the race. Star Storm travels well and has a change of pace. Ayrad has a chance, but stable not in great form at the moment. Latter comment goes for Astronereus too and imo more exposed than the others, although could get a soft lead.
Value Is EverythingI looked at his thread on Sunday and backed his French Guineas winning tip, The Gurhka. Promising start
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