- This topic has 1,552 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Just to put all my Grand National bets in one post:
2016 Grand National
21 points @ 25/1 (PP) Many Clouds*
17 points @ 33/1 (FD) Saint Are*
20 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Le Reve* (min 33/1)(£271 available)
22 points @ 33/1 (PP) Bishops Road* (min 22/1)
24 points @ 16/1 (L) The Last Samuri* (min 13/1)
16 points @ 14/1 (FD) The Last Samuri* (min 17/2)
LAY 17 points @ 26/1 (betfair) Saint Are (min 28/1)(£78 available)
12 points @ 10/1 (Sky) Many Clouds* (min 8/1)
12 points @ 25/1 (FD) Goonyella* (min 16/1)
7 points @ 20/1 (B365) Gallant Oscar (min 20/1)
4 points @ 40/1 (SJ) O’Faolains Boy (min 28/1)
8 points @ 18/1 (WH) Holywell (min 16/1)
7 points @ 179/1 (betfair) Vics Canvas* (min 66/1)
5 points @ 31/1 (betfair) Ucello Conti (min 30/1)Value Is EverythingInappropriate content? Well not always VTC – when he puts up Romsdal as a main bet, now THAT is highly inappropriate
Sorry Ginge but that horse WILL haunt you!!
When my friends send me their annual text asking who to back I’ll just send them this link. Brilliant analysis.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Any thoughts on the place market? Many Clouds is around 4/1 for first 4 and Goonyella 15/2. Some people on twitter are saying it’s an anomaly caused by the bet 365 EW promotion which is skewing the odds against the favourites. But I’m not so sure. Roughly MC might have a 50% chance of completing and then a 20% chance of winning, 10% second, 5% third, 5% fourth. So if fair win odds are 9/1 then place odds would be 4/1.
I had noticed those high place odds Kasparov. Holywell at 7.80/8.00 when win odds are 17.50/18.00. The Last Samuri place = 6.80/7.00 when win odds are 14.00/14.50. Confusing me. Thought possibly down to weight of money from once a year punters but nort sure
Those place odds are better than win odds!
Am going to count this as a different market.
Grand National to be placed in first 4 at betfair:
36 points @ 4.2/1 Many Clouds* (min 3/1)
36 points @ 5.4/1 The Last Samuri (min 3/1)
16 points @ 7.2/1 Goonyella (min 5/1)
saver:
12 points @ 7.4/1 Holywell (min 5/1)Value Is EverythingAny thoughts on the place market? Many Clouds is around 4/1 for first 4 and Goonyella 15/2. Some people on twitter are saying it’s an anomaly caused by the bet 365 EW promotion which is skewing the odds against the favourites. But I’m not so sure. Roughly MC might have a 50% chance of completing and then a 20% chance of winning, 10% second, 5% third, 5% fourth. So if fair win odds are 9/1 then place odds would be 4/1.
Thanks for bringing my attention to that excellent market Kasparov!
Value Is EverythingThose place odds are better than win odds!
Am going to count this as a different market.
Grand National to be placed in first 4 at betfair:
36 points @ 4.2/1 Many Clouds* (min 3/1)
36 points @ 5.4/1 The Last Samuri (min 3/1)
16 points @ 7.2/1 Goonyella (min 5/1)
saver:
12 points @ 7.4/1 Holywell (min 5/1)This is unbelievable odds, another:
18 points @ 4.1/1 Many Clouds* (min 3/1)
18 points @ 5.8/1 The Last Samuri*
8 points @ 7.4/1 Goonyella*
6 points @ 7.2/1 HolywellValue Is EverythingYes looks like it was arbers on the bet365 EW promotion distorting the market.The promotion closed at 12 and some of the value went.
Yes looks like it was arbers on the bet365 EW promotion distorting the market.The promotion closed at 12 and some of the value went.
Yes, now 396% Kasparov.
Was hoping to lay Silviniaco Conti for a place, but not at that price.Value Is EverythingWell done GT. Unlucky with win bets Last Samuri and Vics Canvas but still produced a profit after staking 300+ points.
4:30 Newmarket (tomorrow)
57 points @ 7/2 (Sportsbook) First Victory* (min 3/1)Value Is EverythingWell done GT. Unlucky with win bets Last Samuri and Vics Canvas but still produced a profit after staking 300+ points.
Thanks Mtoto, it was a close run thing.
Got to thank Kasparov for pointing me in the direction of those unbelievable place markets, probably wouldn’t have seen it and made a massive loss without him.What with Rule The World beating The Last Samuri and Vics Canvas, me failing to do Vic for a place… and Goonyella finishing well but too late to get 4th (wish I’d chosen the “5 places” with Goonyella)! It could so easily have been a different story.
Value Is EverythingHey Mark, is First Victory a big worry now?
Nathra and Robanne were tipped up by Tom Segal this morning and so was Only Mine by Hugh Taylor. So the betting is somewhat exaggerated.
Nathra was the best of these at two and goes really well on a soft surface (round action). Thought about backing her at 7/2 yesterday! Should’ve done, Fingers crossed I don’t regret it.
Robanne was impressive first time out/debut on soft once she’d grasped what was required. Stable currently in cracking form too. Ran well in the Oh So Sharp when third on second start. However, has been held up in her two races so far and if I thought the race would be run to suit would’ve been interested myself.
Only Mine may well be up there from the start and imo that’s a positive here. But only beat another runner here – Squash – by a head in the Bosra Sham on final 2 year old start. Had 6 races, so far more exposed and probably does not have the scope for improvemnt of some of the others.
Mix And Mingle is a filly I like. Won a handicap off 82 on the Rowly last back end. Stable is going well at the moment, if having a second bet now – at the prices – it would be her.
First Victory won the Oh So Sharp with a bit in hand. Half-sister Ihtimal improved early at 3 to win Meydan Guineas and Oaks before placing in the 1000. First Victory acted on officially good-soft at Newmarket and is a better looking sort than her half-sis. The big thing in her favour may well be the run of the race here, being a front-runner. Stable haven’t had many runners over here yet, couple were beaten just a length, but you’re right Theo – the market drift is now worrying.
Value Is EverythingCashed out on half of my First Victory bet.
Doyle decided not to lead – strange decision with the pace modest – took a keen hold. May be the first time tongue tie was a sign of temperament or wind problem. Should’ve seen that and thought twice! Sorry
Nathra did it well and could be the danger to my Guineas pair – Lumiere and Minding – although having seen the Gosden filly at both Salisbury and Newbury – wouldn’t be sure she’d act on firm surface. Has a markedly round action and proximity of Squash keeps the form down.Robanne ran just I thought, held up, finished fast but too late. Truly run mile will suit, but unlikely to be good enough in the Guineas.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.