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2:35 Kempton
38 points @ 8/1 (B365) Killala Quay* (min 6/1)
saver:
7 points @ 6/1 (B365) Twelve Roses (min 6/1)Make TR in to a main bet:
another:
16 points @ 6/1 (B365) Twelve Roses (min 6/1)Value Is Everything2016 Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham
33 points @ 10/1 (PP) Thistlecrack*21 points @ 16/1 (Sportsbook NRNB) Saphir De Rheu* (min 14/1)
10 points each way @ 40/1 (Sky NRNB) Lil Rockafella* (min 28/1)
Value Is Everything^ Above bet is 89/1 on betfair, but could go for the Coral Cup so kept it to NRNB.
Value Is Everything2016 Champion Hurdle
28 points each way @ 12/1 (L) Peace And Co*21 points each way @ 16/1 (L) Identity Thief* (min 12/1)
saver + 1 point extra just in case I want another saver:
5 points @ 25/1 (PP NRNB) Camping Ground (min 20/1)Value Is Everything2016 Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham
33 points @ 10/1 (PP) Thistlecrack*21 points @ 16/1 (Sportsbook NRNB) Saphir De Rheu* (min 14/1)
10 points each way @ 40/1 (Sky NRNB) Lil Rockafella* (min 28/1)
saver + 1 point:
3 points @ 33/1 (PP NRNB) Camping Ground (min 28/1)Value Is EverythingGinge do you ever just think “screw it” and go a bit mental and throw a massive bet on a horse that you don’t mention on here? Have big admiration for your discipline but surely there must be some times after you’ve had a nice win or it’s during Cheltemnhan or Ascot or whatever and you lump a silly amount on that is way above your (around) 100point maximum?
Not bothered about aftertiming and would love to hear crazy stories from over the years…….or maybe you really are as strict as a Victorian teacher with your rules.
I tend to keep to my rules on here Ben; because I don’t want any follower to overstretch themselves. A losing run can start at any moment. Therefore, if readers know I seldom put up more than 100 points then they know how much their own £’s (or pence) per point should be. My staking Plan allows for ”
I do go over 100 points in my own betting; but there’s no point going mad, because the staking plan already allows for “a massive bet”. Allowing for both how much chance I think the horse has of winning and how much value I believe is in the bet.
eg. I had an ante-post bet on Don Poli immediately after the RSA @ 10/1.
I estimated his chance at the time as a fair 20%.
10/1 = 9% (well, 9.1 actually)
20 – 9 = 11
11 x 6 = 66
66 + the 20 = 86So I put up a “massive bet”, going “a bit mental” and advising an 86 points bet @ 10/1.
Doesn’t happen very often.
There are some bets I don’t put up on here. May be the odds shorten before I can put the bet up or betting near the off and no time to get on TRF to post. Or in running bets, don’t have many but they are increasing in number; used mainly as saver bets. I don’t have many bets on horses that (according to my original 100% book) have drifted out to a “backable price”; because I believe the market tends to get to know the horses who may be value on “form”, but are not fit or not ready to show it, drifting. My late bets are in fact more likely these days to be a horse who my original book did not make “value”.
eg.
If Horse (A) were in good form at the moment I’d probably make him a fair 33% 2/1 shot, but he ran badly last time out for no definite reason so I’ve put him in my 100% book as a fair 20% 4/1 shot. There are positives, stable are in much better form than they were when (A) disappointed. Best odds available are 7/2 pretty much across the boards so is not a bet according to my original 100% book 20% assessment. But if the horse thens shortens up to 3/1, market confidence can mean it is probably back in form (especially allied to the stable being in better nick). So compared to the 2/1 I’d have rated (A) if he’d been in “good form” 3/1 is still a good bet.I never change stakes purely because of a winning day, although can have larger stakes due to the quality of race.
I’ll tell you one story of a time before this staking plan where there was a massive bet.
I watched the 2002 Greatwood Hurdle and thought Rooster Booster must stand roughly a 4/1 chance of winning the 2003 Champion Hurdle after winning so easily off a massive weight. Channel 4 said “most bookies are offering 8/1” so immediately picked up the phone. Then Tanya says “Stan James are offering 12/1” !!!!! so I had what was at that time my normal big sized bet. Put down the phone and thought this opportunity doesn’t come along very often, picked up the phone again and had another big bet @ 12/1. The more I thought about it the better Rooster Booster looked. Couple of days later my next intalment of Timeform Perspective form book arrived through the letter box, it said “Rooster Booster’s performance would be good enough to win three of the last four runnings of the Champion Hurdle”. Ladbrokes were by then best priced @ 8/1 and was working in town; walked in to Laddies and had another big bet.The day came; moved effortlessly in to contention, RB usually pulls himself up in front but Dickie took it up rounding the home turn. “You IDIOT”! I shouted at the TV. This time Rooster Booster kept on going as Simon Holt enthused “storming up the Cheltenham Hill… a steering job”.
Value Is EverythingI don’t blame you for sticking to your rules on here, know all about losing runs, there are some days/weeks where no matter what you back (in all sports) it finds a way to lose, it’s days like these when you could swear luck was a real thing because 2 months later I do a bunch of bets that should never win but somehow do. It’s a game of chance and risk taking and lowering the effects of ‘bad luck’ can only prove profitable in the long term even if you do miss out on a big payday every now and again.
In-play betting is a good thing, didn’t do it as much as I’d have liked this year, do you do it more for the jumps or flat? I often find good value can be had in a soft/heavy jumps race where in the final half mile the ‘pushed along’ horse keeps on finding compared to bridle job that ends up going backwards once it feels the whip.
I remember your bet a couple of weeks ago on Top Gamble being a good example of a horse becoming good value due to shortening, like you said the stable correctly thinking it was now back to its best or at least near to it. It was you that first got me into looking at trainer form and I’ve used it ever since. It comes just as handy when knowing not to back a horse, often see 2-1 to evens shots where the trainer hasn’t had a winner in a couple of weeks. Just as important though is knowing the price of those horses, if a bunch of 20/1 shots have been long beaten then it’s excusable, but if they themselves were favourites then you have to raise questions.
Fair play for getting on Rooster Booster like you did! Those are the stories I like to hear putting the phone down and picking it straight back up again haha, one of the most impressive winners of the Champion Hurdle you’ll ever seen, you must have been shouting the house down when you saw him storming clear and not backpedalling!
I don’t blame you for sticking to your rules on here, know all about losing runs, there are some days/weeks where no matter what you back (in all sports) it finds a way to lose, it’s days like these when you could swear luck was a real thing because 2 months later I do a bunch of bets that should never win but somehow do. It’s a game of chance and risk taking and lowering the effects of ‘bad luck’ can only prove profitable in the long term even if you do miss out on a big payday every now and again.
In-play betting is a good thing, didn’t do it as much as I’d have liked this year, do you do it more for the jumps or flat? I often find good value can be had in a soft/heavy jumps race where in the final half mile the ‘pushed along’ horse keeps on finding compared to bridle job that ends up going backwards once it feels the whip.
I remember your bet a couple of weeks ago on Top Gamble being a good example of a horse becoming good value due to shortening, like you said the stable correctly thinking it was now back to its best or at least near to it. It was you that first got me into looking at trainer form and I’ve used it ever since. It comes just as handy when knowing not to back a horse, often see 2-1 to evens shots where the trainer hasn’t had a winner in a couple of weeks. Just as important though is knowing the price of those horses, if a bunch of 20/1 shots have been long beaten then it’s excusable, but if they themselves were favourites then you have to raise questions.
Fair play for getting on Rooster Booster like you did! Those are the stories I like to hear putting the phone down and picking it straight back up again haha, one of the most impressive winners of the Champion Hurdle you’ll ever seen, you must have been shouting the house down when you saw him storming clear and not backpedalling!
Thanks Ben, nice to hear feedback of when the thread has a positive affect on how other TRFers gamble.
My in-running is more in jumps racing at the moment, might increase it on the flat too. For me it’s more about laying one I’ve already backed or topping up on one I’ve already had a bet on; keeping an eye on two factors: Pace and temperament.
eg One who I’ve worked out needs to lead and then doesn’t over the first couple of obsticles; being able to lay it off before the price gets too big. Or a race where I thought would be a good pace and instead it’s slow; not suiting the horse/s I’ve already backed etc. Or one that doesn’t find as much in a finish, barely stays or is ungenuine; therefore if it is not going better than its rivals at halfway is unlikely to beat them. Conversely – as you rightly imply – one who I know finds a lot and is genuine and/or full of stamina – will often stay on past its rivals. In-running is unlikely to ever be be a major part of my betting, but might do more.Value Is EverythingNext bets will be put up tomorrow evening for Newbury’s Friday card.
Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
3:25 Newbury
43 points @ 10/1 (B365) Artiface Sivola* (min 7/1)Value Is EverythingRace Of The Day
3:25 Newbury
43 points @ 10/1 (B365) Artiface Sivola* (min 7/1)40 points @ 5/1 (WH) Gores Island* (min 5/1)
saver:
14 points @ 6/1 (Sky) Cloudy Joker (min 6/1)Value Is Everything4:00 Newbury
26 points @ 14/1 (B365) Long Lunch* (min 12/1)
51 points @ 7/2 (PP) Mystifiable* (min 100/30)
saver:
22 points @ 7/2 (PP) Nitrogen (min 7/2)Value Is Everything4:30 Newbury
32 points @ 8/1 (Sky) Super Scorpion* (min 7/1)
25 points @ 8/1 (Sky) Dazinski* (min 15/2)
saver:
23 points @ 5/2 (B365) Mountain Eagle (min 5/2)Value Is Everything4:30 Newbury
32 points @ 8/1 (Sky) Super Scorpion* (min 7/1)
25 points @ 8/1 (Sky) Dazinski* (min 15/2)
saver:
23 points @ 5/2 (B365) Mountain Eagle (min 5/2)saver:
9 points @ 10/1 (WH) Mutharis (min 10/1)
another:
4 points @ 9/4 (B365) Mountain Eagle (min 9/4)Value Is Everything
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