- This topic has 1,552 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
5:35 Newmarket
55 points @ 3/1 (Sportsbook) Mutakayyef* (min 11/4)22 points @ 9/1 (PP) Master The World* (min 17/2)
22 points @ 12/1 (PP) Wannabe Yours* (min 10/1)Value Is Everything3:10 Newmarket
76 points @ 6/4 (Sportsbook) Emotionless* (min 11/8)
14 points @ 25/1 (WH) Sanus Per Aquam* (min 20/1)Really looking forward to seeing the Dewhurst. We’ve been lucky with three top class two year old fillies and three top class colts this season. Two of those colts running today. Am sure some see it as Coolmore v Godolphin, Ireland v Britain. Forget that, it’s two super two year olds and does not need any hype.
Air Force Blue has won two Group 1’s already. Quickened to beat Herald The Dawn easily by 3 lengths. Runner-up disappointing 7th at Longchamp last week, but too free there so no real form line. Also had Superlative stakes winner Birchwood a further 1 3/4 lengths back in 3rd. Also beat Royal Ascot winner Washington DC 2 lengths in Phoenix Stakes, with a below form Buratino 1/2 a length away 3rd. Air Force Blue is up to winning an average Dewhurst, but is this an average Dewhurst?
You don’t often get a 7 runner Group 1 which is Evens one, 13/8 another. AFB has had four runs, Emotionless put up an exceptional performance for one having only his second racecourse appearance. In Doncaster Champagne (Group 2) beat Ibn Malik 3 1/2 lengths (pair 7 clear of the rest), but it could’ve been a lot further. Ibn Malik just been bit disappointing, but very easy to back and pulled much too hard early. At Donny Buick looked between his legs in supremely confident style cruising up to the Goodwood Champagne runner-up; before quickening clear, never needing to be put under maximum effort. Dam won Breeders Cup Distaff. Hopefully he’ll have enough experience. It’s difficult for me to split the two main protaganists; but if there is a Wonder Horse think it’ll be Emotionless.
Massaat could be anything, bags of scope but did only win a Leicester maiden by 3 3/4 lengths and this looks some Dewhurst! tbh surprised Hanagan has plumped for this one ahead of Tashweeq and therefore a negative for latter. Tashweeq won listed Doncaster race in good style by 1 1/2 lengths from Haalick.
If the other two disappoint a little the one who could pick up the pieces is Sanus Per Aquam. Palpably unbalanced going in to the dip in Somerville Tattersall, looked well beaten before finding his stride and getting up on the line to beat Tasleet. Could be quite a bit better than that and may have the run of the race from the front. 25/1 too big to ignore.
Can’t see the other two being good enough.
Value Is EverythingHope Emotionless is ok. Going to post thought his mouth was open. Breathing problems? In what looked beforehand a two horse race, with market movement – Air Force Blue extremely well backed and Emotionless very easy to back… did someone know Emotionless wasn’t right? Or am I showing too much emotion?
Whatever the case, with Air Force Blue putting up an outstanding performance suggests the Godolphin colt would’ve struggled even if on song.
Value Is Everythingi think the prices early in the week were the doubts about AFB coming over,obviously emotionless didn’t run his race but think the market was what it should have been,if it was 100% AFB was running.imo
i think the prices early in the week were the doubts about AFB coming over,obviously emotionless didn’t run his race but think the market was what it should have been,if it was 100% AFB was running.imo
Possibly NW, can’t see it myself. I can see why AFB was made favourite, but can’t see why it should be that much difference in price; at least not until Tabour’s paddock words. Were they that confident in Racing Post interviews? Anyone got any quotes?
Value Is EverythingWell done with the current run. See you are pretty much swerving the handicaps.
Forgot about this Stilvi.
You’re right, I don’t bet very often in big Saturday handicaps anymore. Main reason is with the “Powers That Be” putting most of the good racing on Saturdays these days I don’t get time. Studying 30 runner handicaps (or even 20) takes ages and on average each runner takes longer because I don’t know the form as well as Group class animals. If I’d done the Ces today would’ve taken me just as long as doing three (if not more) Conditions races. So the return to an hour’s work isn’t as good in big handicaps. Hpwever, do have a good record in jump handicaps, so it’ll be a different story in that sphere.Tend to bet in quite a few mid-week flat handicaps, but rarely look at Grade 4 and never 5 and 6. Works out more Grade 3’s than 2’s; especially when going racing or at a racecourse I know fairly well. Although I’ve cut down on number of bets per day since soft ground became prevalent, and that – in turn – means fewer bets on handicaps.
Value Is EverythingEmotionless has an injured knee according to reports.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Emotionless has an injured knee according to reports.
Yes, it was fairly obvious something was wrong Nathan. Glad it’s nothing more serious than a chipped knee, I know can keep a horse off for some time but they seem pretty sure of getting him fit for the Guineas. May be it will stop Godolphin over-training like they do with so many. Considering the Donny demolition 20/1 is tempting.
Value Is EverythingChampion Stakes
27 points @ 14/1 (L) The Corsican* (min 11/1)The Corsican still tremendous value, suspect you’ll get 12/1 tomorrow morning. I rate him a fair 7/1 shot! If you’re not already on suggest 25 points each way.
16 points each way @ 11/1 (B365)Value Is EverythingQEII
21 points each way @ 8/1 (PP) Kodi Bear* (min 7/1)If you haven’t done Kodi yet go with Bet 365 for 1/4 odds.
10 points @ 25/1 (PP) Integral* (min 20/1)Value Is EverythingI love the Kodi Bear bet GT – got my account restricted soon after my scummy e/w at 9/1 with PP earlier in the week.
BTW Coral are also 1/4 the odds all C4 races.
Champion Sprint
33 points @ 10/1 (B365) Strath Burn* (min 15/2)Value Is EverythingI love the Kodi Bear bet GT – got my account restricted soon after my scummy e/w at 9/1 with PP earlier in the week.
BTW Coral are also 1/4 the odds all C4 races.
Trouble is Corals seem to only allow me to win a score at a time TYF, don’t think it’ll be long before PP restrict me too. I heard they don’t like each way thieves and so only do the odd one. With around four no hopers this has an each way is best look to it. 9/1 is a lot better than my bet because you won’t have a rule 4 if Gleneagles comes out.
Kodi is the improver and got to be against the AOB “no show” horse. I feel Gleneagles probably had a set back to be constantly given excuses. Solow’s form is best, but imo isn’t as far in front of the others as betting makes out. Do think Integral could surprise at big odds especially if Frankie can race prominently; she’s lightly raced this season. Only beaten 1/2 length by Esoterique last time and Solow only beat her a length; albeit Stoute horse had positional advantage. Although am hoping Mosse can lead the race out tomorrow on the Bear, last two races haven’t got to the bottom of him. Territories by no means, but needs to bounce back from last time, beaten further by Esoterique than Integral was.
Value Is EverythingWith the uncertainty around Gleneagles and several other earlier in the week, it was hard to tell if there would be eight runners. I knew the Kodi Bear bet would get me in trouble since I had a massive chance of getting pure value on the 9/1, plus value on the e/w terms if the field cut up on the day. It’s not a ‘straight go’ though – it’s a bet that makes me feel dirty and more of an arber than a punter.
I couldn’t resist despite knowing my account would be doomswitched.
Kodi Bear’s win at Salisbury earlier in the season was something spectacular in my opinion. I know it was a much lower grade, but not many horses can switch from one side of the track to the other, then back AND win hard-held.
I wonder if Integral is a little jaded and just going through motions nowadays. I felt like Esoterique was there for the taking last time, but Integral didn’t threaten to go past. I’m expecting Solow to be sharp, but I wonder if there’s any chance of him being half a notch short of his best after a mid-season break. I agree RE: Gleneagles. Surely he’s had a setback or is doing something horrible at home. O’Brien’s comment that even 1mm of rain will stop him from running is ridiculous.
There’s defintately a chance Integral is not quite as good this year, but there’s also a chance she’s only just back to her best after a set back. Comparitively fresh for the time of year too. At 25/1 worth a chance.
I was there when Kodi Bear won at Salisbury and a buzz filled the stands; knew we’d seen something special.
You make backing Kodi each way sound as if we’re cheating. :lol:
Use everthing in our Power to win out.
Fingers crossed.Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.