- This topic has 1,552 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Following on from Softie’s words, here’s something I prepared earlier showing my take on the topic:
Trainers In Form:
Trainers in or out of form is perhaps the thing that gives me my biggest edge. Trouble is in my opinion it’s been one of the most overly/wrongly used sayings in racing circles. They’re either obsessed by judging every trainer in exactly the same way or C4/ATR/RUK can not resist saying “trainer in form” just because he/she has had a winner that day or even just one important win in the last week. One winner does not make an in form trainer. On the other hand, the racing press is guilty of identifying in form trainers too late and then keeping them as “in form” for too long. Best not to have a set amount of days to go back. Three week assessments are fine for trainers with few runners, but those with greater numbers can often be judged more accurately from a couple of days activity (eg John Gosden, Paul Nicholls etc) occasionally just one. It should not be judged purely on winners either – especially from trainers with fewer numbers – rather let price be a guide. Looking at a trainer’s recent record; a placed 33/1 shot has in all probability ran very well, not so an odds-on placed runner. Sometimes a trainer is “in form” without it showing up in the wins column, eg if a trainer had plenty of placed efforts at double figure prices recently – then the horse you’re looking at has a good chance of running well. Form study will tell you whether “running well” is likely to be good enough.My first job in evaluating a race is to look at “Trainers In Form”. I use Timeform Race Passes to form my own TIF ratings (not using their symbols). Sportinglife.com website’s is another guide that can be used. Rating every horse in the race for what sort of form each trainer is in. Clicking trainers names on the race card to give a history of every runner the stable has had in order (latest runs first). With too many numbers on my paper – instead of rating them 1 to 10 it’s: *** unbelievable form, through ** brilliant, * excellent, */ good, // average, /` probably average, / just about ok form, /- below what you’d expect (questions should be asked), – below form (saver only if anything), X very poor (think twice). Anything from / to X negatives and */ to *** positives to varying degrees.
Most will be between * and /-. Some, (eg ***) appear rarely, only around half a dozen times a season; “x” would be a trainer on a long run of losers and no placed runners. Any race could have many in-form trainers or none at all. I never make an out of form trainer the “main bet”, just a “saver” at best, although I find they’re rarely good/“value” bets anyway.
Trainer form can help pinpoint winners at big odds. Punters wisely don’t like backing horses who ran badly last time out, especially if no obvious reason comes to light. However, if the trainer returned to form since the horse last ran, there is a far better chance the horse itself will return to form. Conversely; an impressive performance last time out when a trainer was in top form but now going through a lean spell – may be one to take on (particularly at shortish odds). Also, a trainer who had an unusually poor season (probably due to a virus) last season, could end up with well handicapped horses this time around. Or finding a race where it looks between two horses whose trainers are in contrasting form could easily pay dividends.
Value Is Everything3:10 Newmarket
28 points each way @ 13/2 (PP) Promising Run* (min 11/2)
15 points each way @ 25/1 (PP) Hawksmoor* (min 16/1)Value Is EverythingOne of the first things I look at Ginge when studying a race is the trainer breakdown for that course over the last five years.
As well as trainers in form it can pay to look at trainers who apparently target certain courses and certain types of races . To give an example the first race at Newmarket tomorrow Martyn Meade is 4 out of 8 with his two year olds over the last five years and Kurland is 14/1 which even though he has not had a winner in the last fourteen days could be a pointer.Friend of me and Softie’s, Gregg swears by the “trainer’s record in the race” stat Raymo. Has a lot of success looking it up in the Racing Post. Am not normally a Trends person, but that “targeting” stat has a lot of logic to it.
Value Is Everything2:40 Newmarket
29 points @ 8/1 (PP) Coulsty* (min 7/1)
Might get bigger if waiting until tomorrow as it’s possibly Pricewise.Value Is Everything2:40 Newmarket
29 points @ 8/1 (PP) Coulsty* (min 7/1)
Might get bigger if waiting until tomorrow as it’s possibly Pricewise.26 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Ascription* (min 15/2)(£38 available)
Value Is Everything1:35 Newmarket
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Calypso Choir* (min 20/1)(£17 available)Value Is Everything1:35 Newmarket
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Calypso Choir* (min 20/1)(£17 available)18 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Southern Belle* (min 16/1)(£19 available)
Value Is Everything1:35 Newmarket
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Calypso Choir* (min 20/1)(£17 available)18 points @ 19/1 (betfair) Southern Belle* (min 16/1)(£19 available)
saver:
44 points @ 0.85/1 (betfair) Quiet Reflection (min 8/11)Value Is Everything2:40 Newmarket
29 points @ 8/1 (PP) Coulsty* (min 7/1)
Might get bigger if waiting until tomorrow as it’s possibly Pricewise.26 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Ascription* (min 15/2)(£38 available)
savers:
14 points @ 5.4/1 (betfair) Markaz (min 5/1)(£617 available)
9 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) So Beloved (min 8/1)(£88 available)Value Is Everything2:40 Newmarket
29 points @ 8/1 (PP) Coulsty* (min 7/1)
Might get bigger if waiting until tomorrow as it’s possibly Pricewise.26 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Ascription* (min 15/2)(£38 available)
savers:
14 points @ 5.4/1 (betfair) Markaz (min 5/1)(£617 available)
9 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) So Beloved (min 8/1)(£88 available)Another:
3 points @ 8.8/1 (betfair) Ascription (min 15/2)(£18 available)Value Is Everything3:10 Newmarket
28 points each way @ 13/2 (PP) Promising Run* (min 11/2)
15 points each way @ 25/1 (PP) Hawksmoor* (min 16/1)Minding is a worthy favourite, looked as if Heffernan (on board last time) was urging Ballydoyle to keep in front, before eventually letting Minding go by. Could’ve won by further. imo Lot will depend on the ground today, if it is no “soft” in the title then may not be as effective (first race time suggests it is good). Has a round action; in comman with Nathra and she may be best on a soft surface too. I backed the Gosden filly at Newbury and was impressed, undoubtedly of group class, however Group 1 is a big step up. Think Nathra’s price is all about what Gosden and Dettori’s words. Too short for me. Promising Run put in a promising run in the Rockfel, staying on really well. Trainer in good form and another furlong should suit. Form isn’t as much behind Minding as the betting suggests; 6/1 good value. Rockfel 11/8 favourite Hawksmoor given too much to do there. Would not have won, but better than the 4 1/4 lengths beaten by Promising Run. I know Jonibake is rightly a great fan of Hugo Palmer, one of the best up and coming trainers whose runners are often under-estimated (value); went through a rare quiet spell but now once again in outstanding form. 25/1 available!!! Fav’s stable companion Coolmore isn’t out of it either. Seemingly ran green first two starts and managed to win a Group 3 last time. Staying on strongly at 7f and crying out for a mile. Just wonder though how much is greenness/lack of speed and how much might be laziness/temperament. Had cheek pieces on for the first time last time. Will need a very strong pace in this company. Beautiful Morning could be anything, “anything” meaning could be very, very good; could be just smart. Has potential, but needs to step up quite a bit and have missed the value price. Be a little surprised if any of the others are good enough to place.
Value Is Everything2016 1000 Guineas
19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Lumiere* (min 22/1)
15 points @ 20/1 (L) Lumiere* (min 13/1)54 points @ 5/1 (Sky) Minding* (min 9/2)
Value Is EverythingThere is not much doubt in my mind Minding will stay the Oaks trip and is – on the face of it – a good price for Epsom too. However, will she run? By the end of their two year old season Aidan’s Guineas horses have come to the fore (and, looking at the 2015 two year old fillies – they don’t seem to have anything that is an out and out miler)… Coolmore (the stable) usually have a lot of class middle-distance fillies to choose from. Therefore, if Minding prooves herself at a mile she may well stay at a mile at Ascot rather than go to Epsom.
I know I’ve backed Ballydoyle for Epsom, but one of the reasons for that is am convinced she does not have enough speed to win a Guineas.
Value Is Everything3:10 Newmarket
76 points @ 6/4 (Sportsbook) Emotionless* (min 11/8)
14 points @ 25/1 (WH) Sanus Per Aquam* (min 20/1)Value Is Everything2:35 Newmarket
45 points @ 7/2 (L) Gifted Master* (min 100/30)
52 points @ 3/1 (Sportsbook) Ibn Malik* (min 3/1)Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.