Ginger's Winners

[stilvi]

Gingertipster wrote:

Lumiere is the best bet tomorrow Softie. I rate her a 5/2 shot and she’s available @ 4/1.

Well done with the current run. See you are pretty much swerving the handicaps.

Interested to know why you are quite so keen on Lumiere.

Personally, I thought she was easily brushed aside and capitulated quite tamely at York. She is up against a couple of battle hardened rivals and I think she is just as likely to take another step backwards today. Would also be concerned that with Buick on board you would need the filly to do it pretty much all on the bridle.

[Gingertipster]

stilvi wrote:

Well done with the current run. See you are pretty much swerving the handicaps.

Interested to know why you are quite so keen on Lumiere.

Personally, I thought she was easily brushed aside and capitulated quite tamely at York. She is up against a couple of battle hardened rivals and I think she is just as likely to take another step backwards today. Would also be concerned that with Buick on board you would need the filly to do it pretty much all on the bridle.

I was mightily impressed with Lumiere‘s maiden Stilvi, not many two year olds put that good a performance and fail to go on to be top class. Not sure how much truth there is about the Johnston filly being unsuited by the ground at York. Lumiere ran an excellent race there for a filly so inexperienced (just one run before Lowther compared to Besharah‘s five) imo Lumiere’s second would’ve won most Lowthers. Unlike Besharah too, Lumiere has bags of physical scope for improvement. Johnston isn’t in quite the form of Haggas, but MJ is in better form than he was at York where as WH isn’t in the incredible form he was at York. That said trainer form makes Besharah deserving of a saver @ 5/2. I make Besharah slight favourite @ 32% 85/40 with Lumiere 5/2 29%. So Lumiere is by far the better value available @ 4/1 or 7/2.

Illuminate is a good filly and just about beat the Haggas horse in the Cherry Hinton. Arguably got first run on Besharah there too. Absence possibly explained by the fact would’ve carried a penalty in Lowther. Could be others have improved past her now and Hannon hasn’t been in as good form with his two year olds this season.

I think AOB has quite a lot of top staying (or at least 7f+) two year old fillies this year (Ballydoyle, Minding etc. With a paucity of top class 6f fillies – hence why Alice Springs is their representitive here. Even so, tbh am surprised The Boys are running; could ruin one with middle distance Classic potential.

Bear Cheek seemed beaten on merit when fourth to Gutaifan, needs a step forwards for the extra furlong here.

Shadow Hunter has pinched a race from the front already, doubtful she can get away with Lumiere also a prominent racer. Four principles look up to standard and can’t see an upset from the rest.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Two wins from two races again today for a +267 points profit.

Value Is Everything

[softie]

[Gingertipster]

August 18th to September 29th Update:

2:30 York
45 points @ 7/1 (PP) Adventurous*
38 points @ 5.4/1 (betfair) Recorder* 1st Return 232.94 points (incl. 5% comm.)
17 points @ 5/1 (B365) Mohab
100 Stakes
+132.94

3:05 York
42 points @ 7/2 (C) Storm The Stars* 1st Return 189 points
45 points @ 9/2 (WH) Bondi Beach* 2nd
87 Stakes
+102

Juddmonte International York
61 points @ 5/1 (B365) Time Test*
Betting Without Golden Horn:
10 points @ 18/1 (B365) Criterion*
5 points @ 50/1 (C) Arabian Queen* 1st Return 205 points (incl. 20% R4)
47 points @ 13/8 (WH) Time Test
123 Stakes
+82

Days Stakes 310 – 61 = 249, Days Returns 626.94, Days Profit +316.94 (61 Time Test an ante-post bet already allowed for +377.94)

2:00 York
74 points @ 2/1 (generally) Tasleet 1st Return 222 points
74 Stakes
+148

3:40 York
20 points @ 20/1 (B365) Outstanding*
28 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Jack Naylor*
40 points @ 100/30 (PP) Covert Love* 2nd
9 points @ 10/1 (PP) Sea Calisi 3rd
-97 Stakes

4:20 York
10 points @ 40/1 (B365) Melodius*
21 points @ 16/1 (B365) Shoal*
24 points @ 12/1 (B365) Bright Approach
16 points @ 10.5/1 (betfair) Desert Snow*
18 points @ 9/2 (L) Suffused 4th
11 points @ 8.6/1 (betfair) Jordans Princess
-100 Stakes

Days Stakes 271, Return 222, Days Deficit -49 points

2:30 York
46 points @ 6/1 (PP) Mizzou* 2nd
32 points @ 6.2/1 (betfair) Big Orange*
8 points @ 12/1 (L) Vent De Force
16 points @ 11/2 (Sky) Trip To Paris
-102 Stakes

3:05 York
38 points @ 11/1 (WH) Speculative Bid* 2nd
30 points @ 7/1 (generally) So Beloved*
-68 Stakes

Nunthorpe Stakes York
54 points @ 6/1 (Sportsbook) Muthmir*
27 points @ 9/1 (PP) Mecca’s Angel* 1st Return 270 points
41 points @ 2/1 (B365) Acapulco 2nd
122 Stakes
+148

Days Stakes 292 – 54 = 238, Days Return 270, Days Deficit -22 points (Without Muthmir who’d already been allowed for +32 on day)

2:00 York
25 points @ 9/1 (SJ) Mutakayyef* 2nd
30 points @ 15/2 (PP) Basem* 3rd
11 points @ 5/1 (B365) Mondialiste 1st Return 66 points
66 Stakes
+0

3:10 York
29 points each way @ 11/2 (Boyle) Ajaya* 1st Return 257.4 points
58 Stakes
+199.4

4:20 York
100 points @ Evens (Sportsbook) Ornate*
-100

Days Stakes 224, Days Return 323.4, Days Profit +99.4 points

5:10 Newbury
64 points @ 2/1 (PP) Man Look*
28 points @ 6/1 (VC) Kallisha* 1st Return 196 points
92 Stakes
+132

6:10 Newbury
8 points @ 5/1 (PP) Rocking Rudolph
30 points @ 4/1 (B365) Rocking Rudolph*
-38

Days Stakes 130, Days Return 196, Days Profit +66 points

3:45 Goodwood
29 points each way @ 11/2 (C) Breton Rock* 3rd
-58

3:10 Goodwood
67 points @ 3/1 (L) Fun Mac* 2nd
14 points @ 5/1 (Sportsbook) Marzocco
-81

Days Stkes 139, Days Deficit -139 points

1:40 Salisbury
59 points @ 11/4 (B365) Justice Law* 2nd
-59

3:45 Salisbury
47 points @ 9/2 (B365) La Rioja* 1st Return 258.5 points
29 points @ 13/8 (L) Mayfair Lady
76 Stakes
+182.5

4:15 Salisbury
27 points each way @ 8/1 (B365) Trixie Malone* 1st Return 324 points
54 Stakes
+270

Days Stakes 189, Days Return 582.5, Days Profit +393.5 points

2:00 Haydock
37 points each way @ 5/1 (B365) Balty Boys* 1st Return 247.44 points (incl. 25% R4)
74 Stakes
+173.44

3:45 Haydock
28 points @ 9/1 (VC) Gordon Lord Byron*
24 points @ 14/1 (B365) Waady*
17 points @ 27/1 (betfair) Eastern Impact*
16 points @ 29/1 (betfair) Watchable*
-85

4:55 Haydock
28 points @ 7/1 (PP) Battle Pride*
57 points @ 9/4 (B365) Manaafidh* 3rd
-85

Days Stakes 244, Days Return 247.44, Days Profit +3.44 points

2:30 Doncaster
62 points @ 9/4 (B365) Elronaq*
-62

3:00 Doncaster
50 points @ 3.4/1 (betfair) Cotai Glory* 1st Return 209 points (incl. 5% comm)
30 points @ 7/1 (PP) Monsieur Joe*
16 points @ 5/1 (B365) Desert Law
96 Stakes
+113

Days Stakes 158, Days Return 209, Days Profit +51 points

2:30 Doncaster
56 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Mistrusting*
20 points @ 14/1 (PP) Dusky Queen*
20 points @ 4/1 (betfair) Fadhayyil
-96

3:05 Doncaster
41 points @ 9/2 (PP) Koora*
11 points @ 50/1 (sportsbook) Mill Springs*
27 points @ 11/1 (VC) Asyad* 3rd
16 points @ 5/1 (PP) Gretchen 1st Return 96 points
95 Stakes
+1

Days Stakes 191, Days Return 96, Days Deficit -95 points

1:55 Doncaster
85 points @ 15/8 (PP) Gutaifan* 1st Return 244.38 points
14 points @ 6.8/1 (betfair) Ornate 2nd
99 Stakes
+143.38

3:05 Doncaster
39 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) Fun Mac*
28 points @ 7.4/1 (betfair) Seamour*
30 points @ 7.2/1 (betfair) William Of Orange*
-97

3:40 Doncaster
74 points @ 2.5/1 (betfair) Pure Diamond*
13 points @ 6/1 (PP) Turret Rocks 1st Return 81.64 points
Stakes 87
-5.36
Not sure what the Rule 4 was, my own bet was with betfair and have included their reduction factor.

Days Stakes 283, Days Return 326.02, Days Profit +43.02 points

2:00 Doncaster
56 points @ 4/1 (VC) Ibn Malik* 2nd
60 points @ 5/6 (PP) Emotionless 1st Return 110 points
Stake 116
-6
3:10 Doncaster
37 points @ 7/1 (Sky) Ivawood*
5 points @ 8.6/1 (Betfair) Ivawood*
31 points @ 6.4/1 (betfair) Safety Check*
15 points @ 5/1 (generally) Limato 1st Return 90 points
88 Stakes
+2

St Leger
54 points @ 6/1 (FD) Storm The Stars*
33 points @ 10/1 (PP) Fields Of Athenry* 3rd
LAY 33 points @ 8.6/1 Fields Of Athenry Return 64.35 points
20 points @ 9/2 (B365) Fields Of Athenry
35 points @ 9/4 (B365) Bondi Beach 2nd placed 1st Return 113.75 points
175 Stakes:
+3.1

5:40 Leopardstown
21 points @ 14/1 (Betfair) Pleascach*
27 points @ 10/1 (Betfair) Cirrus Des Aigles*
18 points @ 13/8 (generally) Golden Horn 1st Return 47.25 points
66 Stakes
-18.75

Matron Stakes Leopardstown
73 points @ 3/1 (PP) Amazing Maria*
-73

Days Stakes 518 – 87 = 431, Days Return 425.35, Days Deficit -92.65 points (without Storm The Stars and Fields Of Athenry -5.65)

2:10 Newbury
55 points @ 3/1 (B365) Operative* 2nd
25 points @ 9/4 (L) Fighting Temeraire 3rd
-80

4:25 Newbury
45 points @ 9/2 (B365) Dark Emerald* 3rd
30 points @ 13/2 (B365) Jallota*
15 points @ 20/1 (PP) Marsh Hawk*
18 points @ 5/1 (Sky) Hathal 1st Return 108 points
108 Stakes
+0

5:00 Newbury
117 points @ 10/11 (PP) Nathra* 1st Return 223.36 points
+106.36

Days Stakes 305, Days Return 331.36, Days Profit +26.36 points

1:45 Newbury
38 points @ 4/1 (sky) The Corsican* 1st Return 190 points
21 points @ 10/1 (Boyle) Sky Hunter* 2nd
59 Stakes
+131

2:45 Newbury
68 points @ 11/4 (B365) Raucous* 3rd
-68

3:25 Newbury
20 points @ 25/1 (PP) Rathaath*
39 points @ 11/2 (B365) Justice Day* 3rd
41 points @ 4/1 (sportsbook) Steps* 1st Return 196.8 points (incl. 5p Rule 4)
100 Stakes
+96.8

Days Stakes 227, Days Return 386.8, Days Profit +159.8 points

2:35 Goodwood
16 points each way @ 16/1 (Sky) Argyle*
-32

3:45 Goodwood
23 points @ 100/30 (B365) Batallion 1st Return 88.17 points (incl. 15p Rrule 4)
37 points @ 7/4 (L) Basem
60 Stakes
+28.17

4:20 Goodwood
66 points @ 15/8 (generally) Scrutinise* 1st Return 189.75
66 Stakes
+123.75

Days Stakes 158, Days Return 277.92, Days Profit +119.92 points

3:40 Newmarket
47 points @ 9/2 (L) Tasleet* 2nd
28 points @ 7/1 (SJ) Haalick*
17 points @ 5/1 (PP) Sanur per Aquam 1st Return 97.75 points
92 Stakes
+5.75

4:15 Newmarket
25 points @ 9/1 (PP) Gale Force* 3rd
25 points @ 13/8 (PP) Flying Officer 1st Return 65.63 points
50 Stakes
+15.63

Days Stakes 142, Days Returns 163.38, Days Profit +21.38 points

3:05 Newmarket
36 points @ 5/1 (B365) Promising Run* 1st Return 216 points
64 points @ 2/1 (B365) Hawksmoor* 3rd
100 Stakes
+116

3:40 Newmarket
92 points @ 11/10 (SJ) Time Test* 1st Return 193.2 points
92 Stakes
+101.2

Days Stakes 192, Days Returns 409.2, Days Profit +217.2 points

Chieveley Park
59 points @ 9/2 (C) Lumiere* 1st Return 324.5 points
24 points @ 5/2 (B365) Besharah* 3rd
83 Stakes
+241.5

3:10 Newmarket (betting without)
66 points @ 2/1 (VC) Ajaya* 3rd
27 points @ 5/2 (VC) Buratino 1st Return 94.5 points
93 Stkes
+1.5

Days Stakes 176, Days Returns 419, Days Profit +243 points

Ante-Post Bets Yet To Run (italics backed before this update):

Arc De Triomphe
36 points @ 10/1 (L) Jack Hobbs* (min 8/1)

Champion Stakes
27 points @ 14/1 (L) The Corsican* (min 11/1)

2016 2000 Guineas
49 points @ 8/1 (L) Emotionless* (min 6/1)

2016 1000 Guineas
19 points @ 25/1 (PP) Lumiere* (min 22/1)
15 points @ 20/1 (L) Lumiere* (min 13/1)

2016 Epsom Oaks
30 points @ 14/1 (PP) Ballydoyle* (min 11/1)

Yet to run Ante-Post bets staked in this update 121 points

18th August to 29th September:
This Update Stakes 4,068, This Update Returns 5,512.31, This Update Profit 1,444.31 35.5% on stakes

Season Stakes 15,650.6 (incl. All ante-post bets yet to run)
Season Returns 19,857.35 (incl. Rule 4’s and commission where applicable)
Season Profit +4,206.75 points
+26.9% Profit On Stakes

Value Is Everything

[nwalton]

how much do you bet to a point? not be nosey but thats alot of points

[Gingertipster]

nwalton wrote:

how much do you bet to a point? not be nosey but thats alot of points

Not a lot really. Because it all depends on the scale.
Although I do occasionally go over 100 points in a race, it is only very seldom. You could say my scale is 0 to 100. Therefore my “50 points @” would be exactly the same as a “5 points @” bet in someone else’s 0 to 10 scale or a 2 1/2 points stake in a 0 to 5 scale.

I don’t mind you asking nwalton, but I don’t tell anyone how much money I bet. What I will say is that each point is worth 0.0002 of my bank account.

I keep to the 0 to 100 scale only because it is easier for me to work out and don’t need to add a decimal point.

ie A horse that I believe has a 25% chance (fair 3/1) who’s available @ a best price of 9/2 (18.2%) gets…
25 – 18.2 = 6.8
6.8 X 6 = 40.8
40.8 + 25 = 65.8 call it 66
So the horse gets 66 points @ 9/2
I don’t want to then bother with putting the decimal point in to make it 6.6 points @ 9/2.
It’s very easy for me to times 66 by the amount 1 point is worth to me personally.

My staking on something I thought a 25% chance available @ 9/2 would be 66 points winning 297 points. I don’t have a “betting bank” as such, instead using all my savings to find out the number of points.

I currently have each point as worth 0.0002 of my total bank account/savings.

So for a 66 points bet, If I had savings of:
1K every point would be worth 20p, so 66 X 0.20 = £13 staked @ 9/2 = £58.50 profit.
5K = £1 a point, staking £66 @ 9/2 = £297 profit
10K = £2 a point, staking £132 @ 9/2 = £594 profit
20K = £4 a point, staking £264 @ 9/2 = £1,188 profit
30K = £6 a point, staking £396 @ 9/2 = £1,782 profit
50K = £10 a point, staking £660 @ 9/2 = £2,970 profit
100K = £20 a point, staking £1320 @ 9/2 = £5,940 profit

My staking of something thought of as a fair 12.5% 7/1 shot available at 10/1 (9.1%) gets 33 points @ 10/1 for 330 points profit.

So for a 33 points bet – if I had savings of:
1K = £7 staked @ 10/1 = £70 profit
5K = £33 staked @ 10/1 = £330 profit
10K = £66 staked @ 10/1 = £660 profit
20K = £132 staked @ 10/1 = £1,320 profit
30K = £198 staked @ 10/1 = £1,980 profit
50k = £330 staked @ 10/1 = £3,300 profit
100K = £660 staked @ 10/1 = £6,600 profit

Because I bet more than one horse in a race (from 1 to 12), I would normally bet between 75 and 100 points in a race. So it works out at between 1.5% to 2% of bank per race.

Hope that helps.

Value Is Everything

[The Ante-Post King]

Gingertipster wrote:

nwalton wrote:

how much do you bet to a point? not be nosey but thats alot of points

Not a lot really. Because it all depends on the scale.
Although I do occasionally go over 100 points in a race, it is only very seldom. You could say my scale is 0 to 100. Therefore my “50 points @” would be exactly the same as a “5 points @” bet in someone else’s 0 to 10 scale or a 2 1/2 points stake in a 0 to 5 scale.

I don’t mind you asking nwalton, but I don’t tell anyone how much money I bet. What I will say is that each point is worth 0.0002 of my bank account.

I keep to the 0 to 100 scale only because it is easier for me to work out and don’t need to add a decimal point.

ie A horse that I believe has a 25% chance (fair 3/1) who’s available @ a best price of 9/2 (18.2%) gets…
25 – 18.2 = 6.8
6.8 X 6 = 40.8
40.8 + 25 = 65.8 call it 66
So the horse gets 66 points @ 9/2
I don’t want to then bother with putting the decimal point in to make it 6.6 points @ 9/2.
It’s very easy for me to times 66 by the amount 1 point is worth to me personally.

My staking on something I thought a 25% chance available @ 9/2 would be 66 points winning 297 points. I don’t have a “betting bank” as such, instead using all my savings to find out the number of points.

I currently have each point as worth 0.0002 of my total bank account/savings.

So for a 66 points bet, If I had savings of:
1K every point would be worth 20p, so 66 X 0.20 = £13 staked @ 9/2 = £58.50 profit.
5K = £1 a point, staking £66 @ 9/2 = £297 profit
10K = £2 a point, staking £132 @ 9/2 = £594 profit
20K = £4 a point, staking £264 @ 9/2 = £1,188 profit
30K = £6 a point, staking £396 @ 9/2 = £1,782 profit
50K = £10 a point, staking £660 @ 9/2 = £2,970 profit
100K = £20 a point, staking £1320 @ 9/2 = £5,940 profit

My staking of something thought of as a fair 12.5% 7/1 shot available at 10/1 (9.1%) gets 33 points @ 10/1 for 330 points profit.

So for a 33 points bet – if I had savings of:
1K = £7 staked @ 10/1 = £70 profit
5K = £33 staked @ 10/1 = £330 profit
10K = £66 staked @ 10/1 = £660 profit
20K = £132 staked @ 10/1 = £1,320 profit
30K = £198 staked @ 10/1 = £1,980 profit
50k = £330 staked @ 10/1 = £3,300 profit
100K = £660 staked @ 10/1 = £6,600 profit

Because I bet more than one horse in a race (from 1 to 12), I would normally bet between 75 and 100 points in a race. So it works out at between 1.5% to 2% of bank per race.

Hope that helps.

Who the Hell bets 12 horses in a race??

[nwalton]

thanks a lot ginger for explanation,as said wasn’t be nosey (on money front) just how you worked it.

[Gingertipster]

nwalton wrote:

thanks a lot ginger for explanation,as said wasn’t be nosey (on money front) just how you worked it.

Realise that mate.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

The Ante-Post King wrote:

Who the Hell bets 12 horses in a race??

Me… and probably you as well Gord, if taking in to account both win bets and place bets of some of your ante post races; where first two choices don’t run.

If you back four horses each way for the Grand National and first two don’t turn up – you back another two each way:

1) A win bet – does not run.
2) A place bet – does not run.
3) B win bet – does not run.
4) B place bet – does not run
5) C win bet – runs
6) C place bet – runs
7) D win bet – runs
8) D place bet – runs
9) E win bet – runs
10) E place bet – runs
11) F win bet – runs
12) F place bet – runs

That’s twelve bets Gord.

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

4:30 Salisbury
31 points @ 6/1 (L) Bint Al Reem* (min 6/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Gingertipster wrote:

4:30 Salisbury
31 points @ 6/1 (L) Bint Al Reem* (min 6/1)

44 points @ 4/1 (PP) Projection* (min 4/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

1:50 Salisbury
56 points @ 4/1 (PP) Past Master* (min 100/30)
23 points @ 5/2 (B365) Stargazer (min 5/2)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

2:50 Salisbury
73 points @ 5/2 (B365) River Echo* (min 2/1)

Value Is Everything

[Gingertipster]

Gingertipster wrote:

2:50 Salisbury
73 points @ 5/2 (B365) River Echo* (min 2/1)

saver:
14 points @ 11/2 (B365) Tafteesh (min 5/1)

Value Is Everything

[Author]

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