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3:55 Salisbury
54 points @ 9/4 (B365) Mill Spring* (min 2/1)21 points @ 13/2 (C) Zamani* (min 13/2)(bits and pieces of 15/2 available on betfair, 7/1 with betway)
Value Is Everything2:20 Newbury
73 points @ 2/1 (WH) Justice Law* (min 15/8)
21 points @ 7/2 (888) Tashweeq (min 100/30)Value Is Everything5:00 Newbury
28 points @ 9/1 (B365) Pivotique* (min 8/1)
30 points @ 7/1 (FD) Carnachy* (min 13/2)
saver:
39 points @ 6/4 (FD) Persian Breeze (min 11/8)Value Is Everythinggingertips
do you have a set points total (in your head) what you want to win each race you bet in?
Thanks in advance
GL
Not exactly nwalton, the number of points is directly related to two things. With main bets it’s how much chance I believe the horse has of winning and how much value I believe there is in the price. Saver bets are simply to get back what I lose on the other bets. So if you have a look at the bet below:
2:20 Newbury
73 points @ 2/1 (WH) Justice Law* (min 15/8)
21 points @ 7/2 (888) Tashweeq (min 100/30)I could not make my mind up whether Justice Law’s fair chance of winning was 13/8 (38% chance) or 6/4 (40%), so called it mid way between the two 39%.
2/1 is equivalent to 33.3%.
39 – 33.3 = 5.7
So the chance I thought Justice Law had of winning was 39% and the amount of value 5.7%.Then I times the amount of value by 6 (it’s usually 6 but can be 5)
So 5.7 X 6 = 34.2
Then add the chance:
34.2 + 39 = 73.2
So Justice Law gets 73 points @ 2/1I also thought Tashweeq was value (although lesser value than Justice Law and rarely back debutant two year olds as main bets).
21 points @ 7/2 had Tashweeq won I’d have got back the 73 points lost on the main bet to break even on the race.Value Is Everything5:00 Newbury
28 points @ 9/1 (B365) Pivotique* (min 8/1)
30 points @ 7/1 (FD) Carnachy* (min 13/2)
saver:
39 points @ 6/4 (FD) Persian Breeze (min 11/8)Aaaaarggghhhhhhhh!
It was Kazziana’s short price that made the three above value bets; really disappointed she’s come out. 20p deduction.Value Is EverythingWhatever the result from the 5:00, 5 profitable days of betting on the trot.
Value Is EverythingCheers nwalton.
3:45 Newbury
38 points @ 11/1 (PP) Heaven’s Guest* (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingCheers nwalton.
3:45 Newbury
38 points @ 11/1 (PP) Heaven’s Guest* (min 8/1)27 points @ 11/1 (Sky) Windfast* (min 9/1)
35 points @ best price in Pricewise column tomorrow Breton Rock (min 11/2)Value Is Everything2:35 Newbury
40 points @ 7/1 (PP) Agent Murphy* (min 6/1)20 points @ 16/1 (L) Felix Mendelssohn* (min 14/1)
Value Is Everything<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Gingertipster wrote:</div>
2:35 Newbury
40 points @ 7/1 (PP) Agent Murphy* (min 6/1)20 points @ 16/1 (L) Felix Mendelssohn* (min 14/1)
savers:
17 points @ 6/1 (Sky) Ayrad (min 6/1)
39 points @ 2/1 (B365) Romsdal (min 2/1)Value Is Everything3:10 Newbury
48 points @ 4/1 (C) Mujassam* (min 4/1)
22 points @ 11/1 (L) Exchequer* (min 11/1)
saver:
18 points @ 4/1 (L) Withernsea (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingWas going to put up a bet in the 2:00 but worried about where the pace is coming from; so doubt I’ll get involved.
Value Is Everything3:10 Newbury
48 points @ 4/1 (C) Mujassam* (min 4/1)
22 points @ 11/1 (L) Exchequer* (min 11/1)
saver:
18 points @ 4/1 (L) Withernsea (min 4/1)With two prominent runners (incl. Exchequer) coming out Mujassam looks an even better bet:
another:
12 points @ 4/1 (B365) Mujassam* (min 3/1)Value Is Everything
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