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Surely though you are going into the Queen Anne chasing a loss, whereas other races you are starting from level? That has to be a much better situation. To clear a loss, presumably, you are going to have to stake more, and possibly bet more horses than you would originally have wanted to do? I haven’t liked the Queen Anne from the start, and wouldn’t have backed anything had they decided not to run Royal Scotsman. You could easily take 5/6 horses and still avoid the winner. It’s also the first race of the meeting, and starting with a big downer is never great.
“Queen Anne:
(4.25%) £50 @ 15/2 (B365) Quddwah (min 7/1) Oops Does not run.
(6.4%) £88 @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) Inspiral (min 7/2) Oops Does not run.
LAY £7 @ 4.1 (betfair £7 available) Inspiral (max 4.3) At least we got some Inspiral back.
LAY another £13 @ 4 (betfair £25 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
Reduced stake:
£20 @ 16/1 (Sky) Big Rock (min 14/1)”
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Facteur Cheval (min 4/1)
LAY £20 @ 15 (betfair £25 available) Big Rock (max 15)
Reducing stakes for this race as I have a lot of liabilities already.
£40 @ 9/1 (WH) Audience (min 15/2)
£25 @ 14/1 (WH) Majloom (min 11/1)”
LAY £63 @ 5 (betfair £155 available) Facteur Cheval (max 5)
£15 @ 20/1 (B365) Dolayli (min 16/1)”
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£5 @ 75 (betfair £7 available) Hi Royal (min 50/1)Value Is EverythingOf course “You could easily take 5/6 horses and still avoid the winner”. But I am not “chasing a loss” or “stake more”. In fact – as I said – I have reduced my staking because of the liabilities.
Here is my current 100% Book for Good-firm going:
Charyn 4/1
Facteur Cheval 5/1
Audience 13/2
Big Rock 8/1
Majloom 9/1
Dolayli 14/1
Docklands 18/1
Royal Scotsman 20/1
Poker Face 25/1
Hi Royal 33/1
Flight Plan 66/1
Brave Emperor 100/1
Whitch Hunter 200/1
Cairo 400/1The horses that are available at bigger prices are currently:
Audience 8/1, Majloom 14/1, Dolayli 20/1 and Hi Royal @ 66/1. Therefore I should back those horses. It’s not a case of trying to find more horses, the horses are just there, at bigger prices than in my 100% book. My staking plan (according to the betting bank) says I should put more money on them all, but have reduced the stakes due to the ante-post liabilities.Value Is Everything“King Charles III Stakes:
(3.2%) £38 @ 8/1 (B365) Asfoora (min 15/2)
(3.2%) £38 @ 14/1 (B365) Kerdos (min 12/1)
(2.9%) £34 @ 16/1 (Sportsbook) Believing (min 14/1)”
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Saver:
£32 @ 6.2 (betfair £64 available) Regional (min 6)Value Is Everything“King Charles III Stakes:
(3.2%) £38 @ 8/1 (B365) Asfoora (min 15/2)
(3.2%) £38 @ 14/1 (B365) Kerdos (min 12/1)
(2.9%) £34 @ 16/1 (Sportsbook) Believing (min 14/1)
Saver:
£32 @ 6.2 (betfair £64 available) Regional (min 6)”
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Another:
(4.45%) £21 @ 17/2 (WH) Believing (min 15/2) £55 in all.Value Is Everything“King Charles III Stakes:
(3.2%) £38 @ 8/1 (B365) Asfoora (min 15/2)
(3.2%) £38 @ 14/1 (B365) Kerdos (min 12/1)
(2.9%) £34 @ 16/1 (Sportsbook) Believing (min 14/1)
Saver:
£32 @ 6.2 (betfair £64 available) Regional (min 6)
Another:
(4.45%) £21 @ 17/2 (WH) Believing (min 15/2) £55 in all”.
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LAY £15 @ 9.8 (betfair £28 available) Asfoora (min 10)Value Is Everything“King Charles III Stakes:
(3.2%) £38 @ 8/1 (B365) Asfoora (min 15/2)
(3.2%) £38 @ 14/1 (B365) Kerdos (min 12/1)
(2.9%) £34 @ 16/1 (Sportsbook) Believing (min 14/1)
Saver:
£32 @ 6.2 (betfair £64 available) Regional (min 6)
Another:
(4.45%) £21 @ 17/2 (WH) Believing (min 15/2) £55 in all
LAY £15 @ 9.8 (betfair £28 available) Asfoora (max 10)”
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BACK £15 @ 9.8 (betfair £15 available) Asfoora (min 9)Value Is Everything^ Sorry, I did not realise that Australia’s “Good” must be our Good-Firm.
Looking at Asfoora’s form – having never run on good-firm I thought he might not act on tomorrow’s surface. But there is no good-firm in Aus.
Value Is EverythingMy King Charles III Stakes 100% book for Good-Firm
Big Evs 4/1
Regional 9/2
Believing 13/2
Asfoora 7/1
Kerdos 17/2
Rogue Lightning 16/1
Twighlight Falls 18/1
Diligent Harry 22/1
Crimsom Advocate 25/1
Valiant Force 25/1
Seven Questions 80/1
Emeraati Ana 125/1
Equality 125/1
Makarova 300/1
Purosangue 300/1
Kylian 500/1
Vadream 500/1Value Is Everything“Prince Of Wales:
£88 @ 11/4 (Sky) White Birch (min 3.6)” Ante-Post Non-Runner
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Reduced because of the liabilities:
£80 @ 11/4 (B365) Inspiral (min 5/2)Value Is Everything“Prince Of Wales:
£88 @ 11/4 (Sky) White Birch (min 3.6) Ante-Post Non-Runner
Reduced stakes because of the liabilities:
£80 @ 11/4 (B365) Inspiral (min 5/2)”
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£25 @ 12/1 (B365) Alflaila (min 10/1)Value Is Everything^ If you didn’t do the ante-post bet on White Birch the stakes would be:
(8.5%) £105 @ 11/4 Inspiral
(3.85% £47 @ 12/1 AlflailaValue Is Everything“Queen Anne:
(4.25%) £50 @ 15/2 (B365) Quddwah (min 7/1) Oops Does not run.
(6.4%) £88 @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) Inspiral (min 7/2) Oops Does not run.
LAY £7 @ 4.1 (betfair £7 available) Inspiral (max 4.3) At least we got some Inspiral back.
LAY another £13 @ 4 (betfair £25 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
Reduced stake:
£20 @ 16/1 (Sky) Big Rock (min 14/1)”
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Facteur Cheval (min 4/1)
LAY £20 @ 15 (betfair £25 available) Big Rock (max 15)
Reducing stakes for this race as I have a lot of liabilities already.
£40 @ 9/1 (WH) Audience (min 15/2)
£25 @ 14/1 (WH) Majloom (min 11/1)”
LAY £63 @ 5 (betfair £155 available) Facteur Cheval (max 5)
£15 @ 20/1 (B365) Dolayli (min 16/1)
£5 @ 75 (betfair £7 available) Hi Royal (min 50/1)”
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Laying some back at shorter than when I backed them:
LAY £7 @ 9.6 (betfair £8 available) Audience (max 9.6)
LAY £8 @ 11.5 (betfair £182 available) Majloom (max 12)
LAY £2 @ 18 (betfair £2 available) Dolayli (max 18)
LAY £3 @ 32 (betfair £442 available) Hi Royal (max 40)Value Is Everything“St James’s Palace Stakes:
(8.4%) £100 @ 6/4 (B365) Notable Speech (min 6/4)
(reduced) £40 @ 6/1 (B365) Henry Longfellow (min 6/1)
Another:
(10.45%) £29 @ 2.6 (betfair £33 available) Notable Speech (min 2.46) (£129 in all)
LAY £20 @ 5.4 (betfair £44 available) Henry Longfellow (max 6)”
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Reduced Stakes:
£20 @ 21 (betfair £26 available) Alyanabi (min 20/1)
£10 @ 32 (betfair £12 available) Unquestionable (min 28/1)Value Is Everything“St James’s Palace Stakes:
(8.4%) £100 @ 6/4 (B365) Notable Speech (min 6/4)
(reduced) £40 @ 6/1 (B365) Henry Longfellow (min 6/1)
Another:
(10.45%) £29 @ 2.6 (betfair £33 available) Notable Speech (min 2.46) (£129 in all)
LAY £20 @ 5.4 (betfair £44 available) Henry Longfellow (max 6)
Reduced Stakes:
£20 @ 21 (betfair £26 available) Alyanaabi (min 20/1)
£10 @ 32 (betfair £12 available) Unquestionable (min 28/1)
Actually put a bit more on:
Another:
£7 @ 21 (betfair £39 aviailable) Alyanaabi (min 21)
£3 @ 30 (betfair £40 available) Unquestionable (min 28)Value Is EverythingWolferton:
(7.3%) £90 @ 4.7 (betfair £157 available) Torito (min 4.3)Value Is Everything
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