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“Queen Anne:
(4.25%) £50 @ 15/2 (B365) Quddwah (min 7/1) Oops Does not run.
(6.4%) £88 @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) Inspiral (min 7/2) Oops Does not run.
LAY £7 @ 4.1 (betfair £7 available) Inspiral (max 4.3) At least we got some Inspiral back.
LAY another £13 @ 4 (betfair £25 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
Reduced stake:
£20 @ 16/1 (Sky) Big Rock (min 14/1)”
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Facteur Cheval (min 4/1)”
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LAY £20 @ 15 (betfair £25 available) Big Rock (max 15)Value Is Everything“Glad you didn’t choose to ignore the fine margins. If Salt Bay hadn’t hung in behind, or Crouch hadn’t taken quite so log to straighten him up, he would have won. A very different result”.
—————————-Maybe, but temperament was one reason why I opposed Salt Bay, Stilvi.
I wasn’t surprised in the slightest when he hung in behind.
Salt Bay has a poor win to run ratio for a horse of his quality and not sure he’d ever have gone passed.Value Is EverythingPeter And Virginia Walwyn Memorial: Salisbury 16:00:
(Reduced) £100 @ 9/4 (WH) New Charter (min 15/8)^ A bet in the race named in honour of my quiz team mate and his wife.
Value Is EverythingAny reason why Levey would abandon her for the new comer? He must rate him better?
I think New Charter sets a decent standard and got sandwiched at Epsom from the stalls which basically killed the race for her
The market is moving in favour of An Outlaws Grace…🤔Blackbeard to conquer the World
Outlaws Grace does have a Group 1 Phoenix Stakes entry for the 10th August, Nathan…
So presumably he is showing them something at home. Also has entries in the Redcar Listed race and a couple of big Sales races. Whereas New Charter isn’t entered in anything…But Outlaws Grace is by Dandy Man and out of a mare by Acclamation (speed and speed). Whereas New Charter has more stamina – sire New Bay from the family of Time Charter. I wouldn’t be surprised if OG is faster than NC on the gallops which may be a reason for Levey’s decision… If it was his to make – maybe the owner privately (wrongly) blames Sean for Epsom. However, 6f at the stiff track of Salisbury can be quite a stiff test of stamina for a two year old this early in its career if they go at a good pace… And we don’t know whether OG will run green – like many a Hannon first time outer. Having said that, there is a possibility of the run coming too soon after Epsom for New Charter, but imo she didn’t have a hard race there. NC was thought good enough to start favourite for the Woodote and should be able to improve on her debut. So the form OS will need to find on his debut to beat an in form NC is asking quite a bit of the colt. Can see why he was backed early on, with his breeding and entries – probably was value then. I just feel punters have seen that market move and over-reacted.
We shall see.
Value Is Everything“Queen Anne:
(4.25%) £50 @ 15/2 (B365) Quddwah (min 7/1) Oops Does not run.
(6.4%) £88 @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) Inspiral (min 7/2) Oops Does not run.
LAY £7 @ 4.1 (betfair £7 available) Inspiral (max 4.3) At least we got some Inspiral back.
LAY another £13 @ 4 (betfair £25 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
Reduced stake:
£20 @ 16/1 (Sky) Big Rock (min 14/1)”
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Facteur Cheval (min 4/1)
LAY £20 @ 15 (betfair £25 available) Big Rock (max 15)”
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Reducing stakes for this race as I have a lot of liabilities already.
£40 @ 9/1 (WH) Audience (min 15/2)
£25 @ 14/1 (WH) Majloom (min 11/1)Value Is EverythingJUNE 16TH BET
Peter And Virginia Walwyn Memorial: Salisbury 16:00:
(Reduced) £100 @ 9/4 (WH) New Charter (min 15/8)
STAKES £100-£100.00
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Day’s Deficit -£100.00Betting Bank £12,355.40
Thread Profit + £2,355.40
=========================Value Is EverythingTrue the form hasn’t worked out, but there are some possible reasons for the second and third running poorly, Stilvi. Coming out the stalls New Charter was the meat in a sandwich at Epsom and looked after. Maybe the race came too soon after Epsom. Seemed to travel well, but didn’t find much off the bridle. That said, when the gap closed a bit when the winner and second moved in on her slightly in the final furlong appeared to be remembering that Epsom coming together – seemingly lost her action. Not that it made any difference to the impressive winner, but imo New Charter should have been finishing the race disputing second.
The Newmarket third, Invincible Song comes from a yard who’s been pretty much out of form since.
So although it is nice when the form works out, I’d be surprised if Mountain Breeze doesn’t at least run well for you.
Value Is Everything“Queen Anne:
(4.25%) £50 @ 15/2 (B365) Quddwah (min 7/1) Oops Does not run.
(6.4%) £88 @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) Inspiral (min 7/2) Oops Does not run.
LAY £7 @ 4.1 (betfair £7 available) Inspiral (max 4.3) At least we got some Inspiral back.
LAY another £13 @ 4 (betfair £25 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
Reduced stake:
£20 @ 16/1 (Sky) Big Rock (min 14/1)”
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Facteur Cheval (min 4/1)
LAY £20 @ 15 (betfair £25 available) Big Rock (max 15)
Reducing stakes for this race as I have a lot of liabilities already.
£40 @ 9/1 (WH) Audience (min 15/2)
£25 @ 14/1 (WH) Majloom (min 11/1)”
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LAY £63 @ 5 (betfair £155 available) Facteur Cheval (max 5)Value Is Everything“Queen Anne:
(4.25%) £50 @ 15/2 (B365) Quddwah (min 7/1) Oops Does not run.
(6.4%) £88 @ 4/1 (Bet Victor) Inspiral (min 7/2) Oops Does not run.
LAY £7 @ 4.1 (betfair £7 available) Inspiral (max 4.3) At least we got some Inspiral back.
LAY another £13 @ 4 (betfair £25 available) Inspiral (max 4.3)
Reduced stake:
£20 @ 16/1 (Sky) Big Rock (min 14/1)”
(5.3%) £63 @ 4/1 (B365) Facteur Cheval (min 4/1)
LAY £20 @ 15 (betfair £25 available) Big Rock (max 15)
Reducing stakes for this race as I have a lot of liabilities already.
£40 @ 9/1 (WH) Audience (min 15/2)
£25 @ 14/1 (WH) Majloom (min 11/1)”
LAY £63 @ 5 (betfair £155 available) Facteur Cheval (max 5)”
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£15 @ 20/1 (B365) Dolayli (min 16/1)Value Is Everything^ Think I’d better say that the LAY bet on Big Rock was only to be done in the ante-post market, because I was (still am) concerned Big Rock will be a non-runner. ie If a non-runner in the ante-post market then the LAY bet would / will win. Whereas a LAY bet on the horse right now would be in the Day Of Race market and just be counted as no bet if it does not run. So if you haven’t yet LAID Big Rock, DON’T! Obviously if Big Rock runs then our original 16/1 would be value.
However, with the ground firming up I no longer believe the 5/1 I advised on Facteur Cheval is value… And therefore advise getting out at the same price we backed it at. Getting back what we put on.
If you have had no ante-post bets on the race just do the Audience, Majloom and Dolaylii bets.
If I hadn’t got all those ante-post liabilities on the race I would be advising:
(4.3%) £53 @ 9/1 Audience (min 15/2)
(4.3%) £53 @ 14/1 Majloom (min 11/1)
(2.625%) £32 @ 20/1 Dolayli (min 16/1)Hope that makes sense.
Value Is Everything“St James’s Palace Stakes:
(8.4%) £100 @ 6/4 (B365) Notable Speech (min 6/4)
(reduced) £40 @ 6/1 (B365) Henry Longfellow (min 6/1)”
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Another:
(10.45%) £29 @ 2.6 (betfair £33 available) Notable Speech (min 2.46) (£129 in all)Value Is EverythingIn respect of the Queen Anne is there a point when a race effectively becomes a train wreck, and as such rather than trying a salvage job, is not better to concentrate on balancing the books by winning on a different race? Just a thought.
“St James’s Palace Stakes:
(8.4%) £100 @ 6/4 (B365) Notable Speech (min 6/4)
(reduced) £40 @ 6/1 (B365) Henry Longfellow (min 6/1)
Another:
(10.45%) £29 @ 2.6 (betfair £33 available) Notable Speech (min 2.46) (£129 in all)”
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LAY £20 @ 5.4 (betfair £44 available) Henry Longfellow (max 6)Value Is Everything“Train wreck” is a good way of putting it with my ante-post losses Stilvi, LOL. But the race can still be evaluated with the same predictability / unpredictability of any other race. ie It is just as easy to get back the Queen Anne ante-post losses on the Queen Anne as any other race.
Value Is Everything
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