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DANTE DAY BETS:
15:15 York Middleton:
(6.4%) £56 each way @ 4.7 (betfair £66 available) Sapphire Seas (min 4.7)
STAKES £112-£112.00
———————-15:45 York Dante:
(Reduced) £50 @ 2.84 (betfair £122 available) Ancient Wisdom (min 2.5)
(Reduced) £50 @ 2.8 (betfair £68 available) Ancient Wisdom (min 2.5) 2nd
(2.15%) £25 @ 16.5 (betfair £66 available) Gods Window (min 15)
STAKES 125-£125.00
———————-Days Deficit -£237.00
Betting Bank £11,582.79
Thread Profit +£1,582.79
========================================LOCKINGE DAY BETS:
LOCKINGE Newbury 18th May:
(3.3%) £38 @ 12/1 (B365) Poker Face (min 11/1)
£17 @ 9/4 (B365) Big Rock (min 85/40)
STAKES £55-£55.00
——————Days Deficit -£55.00
Betting Bank £11,527.79
Thread Profit +£1,527.79
==========================Value Is Everything15:40 CURRAGH IRISH 2000 GUINEAS
Partial Savers:
£10 @ 9.0 (betfair £65 available) Haatem (min 8.5)
£8 @ 12.0 (betfair £11 available) Unquestionable (min 11.0)Value Is Everything“15:40 CURRAGH IRISH 2000 GUINEAS
Partial Savers:
£10 @ 9.0 (betfair £65 available) Haatem (min 8.5)
£8 @ 12.0 (betfair £11 available) Unquestionable (min 11.0)”
————————————————————
(11.4%) £34 @ 1.88 (betfair £34 available) Rosallion (min 1.83)
£99 @ 1.87 (betfair £122 available) Rosallion (min 1.83)Value Is Everything“15:15 York Middleton:
(6.4%) £56 each way @ 4.7 (betfair £66 available) Sapphire Seas (min 4.7)
STAKES £112”Ginger, far be it from me to query a thread showing such a healthy profit – but could you explain your reasoning behind placing an each way bet in a five runner race? There are only two places to play for. Why not go all out for the win?
CAS,
Free Wind was favourite and had won the race in 2023, but the rating she put up in winning that race was significantly lower than her best 12f form. ie I thought Free Wind was unlikely to show her best, especially if it was a slowly run 10f… And had not made the running since her maiden – probably thought by connections to be best with a lead. ie Unlikely to get a strong pace she’d need.
Infinite Cosmos’s form had been at 10f, but had also appeared lacking a turn of foot at the distance. Likely to be best in a strongly run 10f or upped to 12f. But although prominent in the Musidora – with favourite Free Wind wanting a fast pace – it was less likely she’d actually make a strong pace… Especially on her reappearance.
I backed Caernarfon at Newmarket and was disappointed in her run there, looking temperamental and appeared outclassed in this anyway… and had never front run before.
Although Blue Stocking’s best form had been more at 12f, the way she went through her races suggested she’d be effective at 10f… But again, was extremely unlikely to front run, so relied on something else making it enough of a test of stamina… And had looked temperamental at three, so less likely to go through with her effort (didn’t turn out that way, the first time cheek pieces working).
Whilst Sapphire Seas form was as good at 9 or 10 furlongs and had been suited by a test of speed at 10f… And – importantly I thought – was the only one of the field used to making the running / racing prominently.
So Spphire Seas was by far the most likely to make the running and could make it at a pace that suited her. When assessing these horses I could see that I could be wrong about the speed of one of the four rivals, but unlikely to be wrong about two or more. So chose an insurance policy of an each way bet. I just couldn’t see Sapphire Seas being out of the first two unless Buick went too fast in front and made it too much of a test of stamina and why would he do such a daft thing when a slowly run race suited his and only his filly?… But unfortunately that is exactly what he did!
Take a look at the sectionals. 12 second early fractions was too fast. Two out it looked as if SS was going a lot better than FW and IF, but they both stayed on past her purely because of the equal fractions – Buick going too quickly to suit his own horse.Buick is usually one of the best judges of pace, but either misjudged it or got the tactics wrong.
Made no difference to whether he’d win or not, but did make the difference of a place.Value Is EverythingGinger good stuff as usual but just a point losses on Middleton Day should read 237 not 137 unless i am mistaken.
MAY 25TH BET:
15:40 CURRAGH IRISH 2000 GUINEAS
Partial Savers:
£10 @ 9.0 (betfair £65 available) Haatem (min 8.5) 2nd
£8 @ 12.0 (betfair £11 available) Unquestionable (min 11.0)
(11.4%) £34 @ 1.88 (betfair £34 available) Rosallion (min 1.83)
£99 @ 1.87 (betfair £122 available) Rosallion (min 1.83) 1st
STAKES £151
RETURN £63.92 + £185.13 = £249.05+£98.05
—————————————————————Day’s Profit +£98.05
Betting Bank £11,625.84
Thread Profit +£1,625.84
Value Is EverythingCURRAGH IRISH 1000 GUINEAS:
Reduced stakes:
£50 @ 5.0 (betfair £113 available) Fallen Angel (min 7/2)Value Is Everything“CURRAGH IRISH 1000 GUINEAS:
Reduced stakes:
£50 @ 5.0 (betfair £113 available) Fallen Angel (min 4.5)”
———————————————————-
£25 @ 10.5 (betfair £26 available) Purple Lily (min 10.0)Value Is Everything“CURRAGH IRISH 1000 GUINEAS:
Reduced stakes:
£50 @ 5.0 (betfair £113 available) Fallen Angel (min 4.5)
£25 @ 10.5 (betfair £26 available) Purple Lily (min 10.0)”
———————————————————-
£20 @ 13.5 (betfair £94 available) Skellet (min 12.0)Value Is Everything“CURRAGH IRISH 1000 GUINEAS:
Reduced stakes:
£50 @ 5.0 (betfair £113 available) Fallen Angel (min 4.5)
£25 @ 10.5 (betfair £26 available) Purple Lily (min 10.0)
£20 @ 13.5 (betfair £94 available) Skellet (min 12.0)”I have had a saver on Buttons too @ 17.5, but the price has shortened since the bet, so can’t put it up.
Value Is EverythingMAY 26TH BET:
CURRAGH IRISH 1000 GUINEAS:
Reduced stakes:
£50 @ 5.0 (betfair £113 available) Fallen Angel (min 4.5)
£25 @ 10.5 (betfair £26 available) Purple Lily (min 10.0)
£20 @ 13.5 (betfair £94 available) Skellet (min 12.0)
STAKES £95
RETURN £250+£155.00
———————————————————Day’s Profit +£155.00
Betting Bank £11,780.84
Thread Profit +£1,780.84
Value Is Everything“The Epsom Derby:
(4.65%) £55 @ 10/1 (B365) Ambiente Friendly (min 8/1)”
——————————————————
(5.9%) £70 @ 11/2 (Betway) Los Angeles (min 5/1)Value Is Everything
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