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Posts
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2:55 TOMORROW Newbury
55 points @ 3/1 (PP) Maureen* (min 5/2)Savers
9 points @ 17/2 (VC) Agent Alison (min 8/1)5 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Desert Image (min 12/1)(£25 available)
Value Is Everything2:55 TOMORROW Newbury
55 points @ 3/1 (PP) Maureen* (min 5/2)Savers
9 points @ 17/2 (VC) Agent Alison (min 8/1)5 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Desert Image (min 12/1)(£25 available)
another:
1 point @ 13/1 (betfair) Desert ImageValue Is Everything3:30 Newbury
80 points @ 1.9/1 (betfair) Moohaajim* (min 5/4)(£86 available)Value Is EverythingOne win from bets in one race on my jumping thread and two winners from 3 races on Saturday for this flat thread. Pity the loser was also an ante-post bet for the 2000 Guineas (Moohaajim).
Not that it was the only bad news I’ve had. With Al Zarooni being found to have given steroids to 11 horses including Certify, who’s now rightly not allowed to race in the 1000 Guineas.
Back in July…
After saying no more bets until Friday…
2013 1000 Guineas
20 points @ 25/1 (WH) Certify*Impressive on debut in a Newmarket maiden last week in an excellent time.
Then in September…
Actually, before I lay Certify:
12/1 is still far too big so…Another:
1000 Guineas
15 points @ 12/1 (L) Certify* (min 6/1)Before finally laying a bit back…
Whatever the outcome of a BHA enquirey, Godolphin need to get rid of Al Zarooni for their own credibility.Value Is Everything2013 1000 Guineas
20 points @ 25/1 (WH) Certify*
15 points @ 12/1 (L) Certify* (min 6/1)30 points @ 7/2 (FD) Hot Snap* (min 7/2)
Value Is EverythingSorry, put this bet in the wrong thread.
Fri Apr 26, 2013 11:28 am
Gingertipster wrote:2:45 Sandown
36 points @ 7/2 (B365) Faraaj* (min 7/2)24 points @ 13/2 (B365) Chil The Kite* (min 13/2)
18 points @ 100/30 (B365) Trumpet MajorValue Is Everything- Total Posts 764
A very tricky race that one! The odds all seem pretty fair and it’s hard to pick between them.
I think the 3.15 tomorrow at Sandown is pretty interesting, another tough one but I like the favourite Al Kazeem (13/8 on PP), there are some interesting challengers but Thomas Chippendale and Ektihaam have too many question marks to answer for me to back them at 3/1 which will probably mean a saver on Eagles Peak (at 8/1 on PP but should get better odds on betfair tonight)
3:15 Sandown
33 points @ 6/1 (B365) Sugar Boy* (min 6/1)
20 points @ 11/2 (B365) Fantastic Light (min 11/2)
7 points @ 8/1 (VC) Galileo Rock (min 8/1)Value Is EverythingA very tricky race that one! The odds all seem pretty fair and it’s hard to pick between them.
I think the 3.15 tomorrow at Sandown is pretty interesting, another tough one but I like the favourite Al Kazeem (13/8 on PP), there are some interesting challengers but Thomas Chippendale and Ektihaam have too many question marks to answer for me to back them at 3/1 which will probably mean a saver on Eagles Peak (at 8/1 on PP but should get better odds on betfair tonight)
Not wishing to put you off Al Kazeem but I am going to take him on tomorrow in some shape or form (not decided yet)
I just can’t have him at the odds as the stable is doing next to nothing. Over the past two weeks Charlton has had 12 runners and the have finished as follows:-
3rd of 6
7th of 7
12th of 15
3rd of 4
7th of 10
8th of 8
11th of 17
4th of 16
16th of 25
13th of 16
4th of 8
9th of 9OK, some of those were outsiders but several were prominent in the betting and it’s a bit of a dent to confidence in the horse tomorrow. He’s also been off for the best part of a year after suffering a fractured pelvis. Add in that Thomas Chippendale and Ektihaam have scope to improve this year and Al Kazeem is not for me at 13/8
I have just checked and he is now 9/4 with Paddy Power, that looks a bit worrying!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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To be honest Steve I hadn’t even considered how his stable is performing and with recent figures like that it doesn’t bode well, He’s out at 11/4 on Betfair which like you said is a worry! Eagles Peak is 5/1 now and was 8/1 when I checked earlier! This race is turning out to be much more of a head scratcher than I’d anticipated.
To be honest Steve I hadn’t even considered how his stable is performing and with recent figures like that it doesn’t bode well, He’s out at 11/4 on Betfair which like you said is a worry! Eagles Peak is 5/1 now and was 8/1 when I checked earlier! This race is turning out to be much more of a head scratcher than I’d anticipated.
Al Kazeem is 3/1 with Ladbrokes and bet365 at the moment. Eagles Peak is as low as 3/1 with Ladbrokes but 5/1 elsewhere. Aged 5 he has had only 3 starts so I assume he has had problems. Only won a handicap last year so I am passing on him for that reason.
I am going against Ektihaam purely on the fact that Roger Varian often seems to have horses shorter in the betting than they really warrant. I thought Farraaj was a typical example of that today, dropped in trip and up in grade after scrambling home in The Winter Derby, going off 9/4 Fav and looking rank bad value despite the Channel 4 pundit’s insistence that he was a horse of "Unlimited potential"
That leaves me with Thomas Chippendale who would look a lot more appealing if you took his last two runs away. Dropping trip could help and he surely has the scope to improve past a couple of less than robust looking elders. Tommy Chip 4/1 Boyle Sports
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
3:15 Sandown
40 points @ 7/2 (FD) Ektihaam* (min 100/30)
Savers:
16 points @ 7/2 (FD) Thomas Chippendale (min 7/2)
13 points @ 9/2 (C) Eagles Peak (min 9/2)Value Is EverythingTo be honest Steve I hadn’t even considered how his stable is performing and with recent figures like that it doesn’t bode well, He’s out at 11/4 on Betfair which like you said is a worry! Eagles Peak is 5/1 now and was 8/1 when I checked earlier! This race is turning out to be much more of a head scratcher than I’d anticipated.
Al Kazeem is 3/1 with Ladbrokes and bet365 at the moment. Eagles Peak is as low as 3/1 with Ladbrokes but 5/1 elsewhere. Aged 5 he has had only 3 starts so I assume he has had problems. Only won a handicap last year so I am passing on him for that reason.
I am going against Ektihaam purely on the fact that Roger Varian often seems to have horses shorter in the betting than they really warrant. I thought Farraaj was a typical example of that today, dropped in trip and up in grade after scrambling home in The Winter Derby, going off 9/4 Fav and looking rank bad value despite the Channel 4 pundit’s insistence that he was a horse of "Unlimited potential"
That leaves me with Thomas Chippendale who would look a lot more appealing if you took his last two runs away. Dropping trip could help and he surely has the scope to improve past a couple of less than robust looking elders. Tommy Chip 4/1 Boyle Sports
I totally agree with you Steve that
Al Kazeem
has got to be taken on at the prices. I don’t even make him favourite, or secod fav, or third fav!
Despite winning on reappearance last year (for which I backed him @ double the SP if I remember rightly) the fractured pelvis and trainer form make my price to beat tomorrow 9/2! May be that will come back to haunt me, because on the Jockey Club run would have the beating of these. 
Al kazeem’s crazy price makes three others value. I’ve been following
Thomas Chippendale
for for a while now. Backed him for the King Ed
and Voltigeur 
and St Leger . As you say Steve, palpably didn’t stay in the latter and should be fully effective at this trip given a sound pace. However, there is no confirmed front runner and is a hold up horse. That allied to the fact he’s a "stayer" at the trip – puts me off a little. He also came on for the run on 3 year old reappearance and his three main rivals all won on their first start last season. I’ve only saved on him.Wish I’d seen the 8/1
Eagles Peak
earlier Ben.
that would’ve been a bet with a capital B. Although only won a handicap and lightly raced, I was there when won with a bit in hand over a filly who on next start won a listed race. True, Eagles Peak has a bit to find which is why he’s another saver.One I like is
Ektihaaam
. You are right that sometimes the market over-estimates Varian horses – in the same way as Jarvis used to. However, on the bases of judging every horse individually – it does not seem to me to be the case here. As said, Ektihaam won on reappearance last year and the stable usually have them fit. On occasions looked a bit of a boyo last year and wouldn’t be at all surprised if the winter gelding op makes a man of him, if you see what I mean? He’s also usually ridden near the pace which may suit this race.
Of the others: Suppose
Semayyel
would be the most likely leader and although looks outclassed – could nick it from the front if allowed.
Burano
and
Dick Doughtywylie
don’t look up to this grade.
We should have the winner between us.
Value Is EverythingExcellent winner with Sugar Boy Ginge, who showed a terrific attitude when headed to get back up to win.
Wondering if this is a sign of the times and we can expect far more Irish raiders in future, mind you,it can hardly be for our dismal prize money methinks?
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I really couldn’t decide on who to bet on in the 3.15 so I’ve given it a miss, might bet on something when i get to the track but it’ll only be a small amount.
The main bets I’ve put on are Carry On Sydney (5/1 in the 4.25) and Forgotten Hero (6/1 in the 4.55), have to say though it’s quite a puzzler of a meeting in terms of betting.
Good luck for today Ginge!
Good luck to you too Ben, I’ll be cheering your selections on.
Value Is EverythingExcellent winner with Sugar Boy Ginge, who showed a terrific attitude when headed to get back up to win.
Wondering if this is a sign of the times and we can expect far more Irish raiders in future, mind you,it can hardly be for our dismal prize money methinks?
Thanks Softie,
Rigt now, it is a bit difficult to see where the stars are coming from Softie. Of the "middle-distance" 3 year olds I do like Battle Of Merengo, but haven’t quite decided whether he’s a Derby or St Leger horse. Mars is far from certain to get the Epsom trip and has surely had a training problem, being off course so long. Dawn Approach is the obvious Irish miling star. Should get 10 but 12f is questionable. Christaforo Colombo and George Vancover are other Irish possibles for a mile.
Of all the British colts the one stand out three year old colt is Toronado, who could be a match for all the Irish. Without him the British stable is bare.
I like the Irish filly Big Break if she comes over for the 1000 (trainer does not push them early). Though the Brits do have Hot Snap who’s a worthy favourite and Just The Judge (where’s Bob when you need him?)
Liber Nauticus is the talking middle-distance filly for us, but it is very much early days in that department.
Of the older horses the French may have the ace in Cirrus Des Aigles if back from injury. There’s a soft ground French filly too, begins with "R", forget her name, Arc filly. One of ours who I am really looking forward to this year is The Fugue. Be nice to see her at a mile again instead of 12f.
We seem to have a few better older milers than Ireland, but there’s an American and possibly Aussie that might have a say. Declaration Of War and now Ex-English Most Improved if AOB can work his magic – best of ireland. But we have Cityscape, Elusive Kate and particularly Farhh, predict he’ll go far this year at a mile or 10 furlongs.
Irish don’t have many good sprinters, Maarek their best. I think Mince will prove Champion European sprinter this year, who’s yet another top Roger Charlton sprinter. Pearl Secret could improve and both Moohaajim and Dundonnell could make their mark in this sphere.
Thought I’d be against Camelot this year, but there’s little in the way of middle-distance older horses. If he can be returned to form could win a Group 1. Is sure to have a gradual reintroduction with Tatts Gold Cup main early target. But how did Camelot get the award for best horse in Ireland? Not even the best horse in his stable. St Nicholas Abbey should have a good season going LEFT-handed. Hope Imperial Monarch might go back to middle-distances (ran at 2m in Dubai), could yet be the best of the lot given a soft surface. EDIT: Al Kazeem may be one Brit to challenge.
Ireland has a couple of good stayers in Right Of Passage and Saddlers Rock, but I think their position in the Gold Cup market is a false one. Prefer High Jinx and Mount Athos and then there is Colour Vision.
On the whole I’d say Ireland has the edge with the 3 year olds colts and middle-distance older horses. We have better 3 year old fillies, sprinters and milers, probably stayers too. All in my opinion.
If I had to nominate the stars of 2013 Softie – it would be Toronado and Dawn Approach.
Value Is Everything
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