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2:35 Goodwood
26 points @ 11/2 (b365) Mymumsaysimthebest
13 points @ 15/1 (betfair) Brandywell Boy
20 points @ 2/1 (b365) Soap WarsJust missed the 13/2 last night, too greedy and missed the bigger prices this morning.
Value Is Everything4:20 Goodwood
51 points @ 7/4 (b365) Lethal Force(took all the 2/1 and 15/8 on the exchanges last night)
Value Is Everything3:45 Goodwood
25 points @ 7/1 (b365) Fontley19 points @ 12/1 (Corals) Set The Trend
Value Is Everything4:20 Goodwood
51 points @ 7/4 (b365) Lethal Force(took all the 2/1 and 15/8 on the exchanges last night)
Mistake in stakes, a further:
8 points @ 7/4 (b365) Lethal Force
Value Is EverythingTodays Results
2:35 Goodwood
26 points @ 11/2 (b365) Mymumsaysimthebest3rd
13 points @ 15/1 (betfair) Brandywell Boy
20 points @ 2/1 (b365) Soap Wars
-59 points deficit
Mymumsaysimthebest backed in from 11/2 to 3/1, although that may have something to do with the name and a Bank Holiday Monday crowd. Came there going well enough but found little. It’s possible his poor strike rate has something to do with temperament. Soap Wars disappointed in 4th. Brandywell Boy ran well, not good enough. Fallon got the hood off of the joint winner Alfresco, before the gates opened this time.3:10 Goodwood
25 points @ 7/1 (b365) Fontley
19 points @12/1 (Corals) Set The Trend 1st Return 247 points
(44)
203 points profit
Fontley did not look great in the paddock, poor coat, on toes and a kidney sweat and duly disappointed. Set The Trend’s coat was shiny and looked well. Favourite Rainfall looked ok, but no more than that, had had a setback earlier in the week and possibly a little weak behind. Back with a trainer who failed to get the best out of her previously. Second favourite Tropical Paradise also on toes, quite normal for her but it wasn’t going to help her stay. A race ripe for a turn up and so it proved, both favs out of the first three in a six horse field. In truth, Set The Trend probably didn’t have to improve much in making all.
3:45 Goodwood
59 points @ 7/4 (b365) Lethal Force2nd
placed 3rd after stewards enqirey.
-59 points deficit
Lethal Force probably ran below debut form. I remember he was a non-runner somewhere, may be he’d had a setback. Ok in the paddock, but not one of the better looking ones. Came in for strong support 15/8 to 11/8, got beaten on the line but gave a slight bump to the third and relegated a place. Winner 40/1 shot Sir Clanton was a nice enough type, but winnieing and green, will come on for the run.Days Stakes 162, Days Return 247 points,
Days Profit 85 points
.
Total Stakes 2241, Total Return 3163.8,Total Profit 922.8 points
.
41.2% Profit
On Stakes.
Strike Rate (not including each way placed, but including 3 saver bets) 16/4238.1%
Often back more than one horse in a race, but individual winners were:
Rimth 13/2, Kings Gambit 11/2, Dandino 9/4, I’m A Dreamer 14/1 (saver), Delegator 15/2, Mr Topsy Turvy 6/1, Beatrice Aurore 15/8 (saver), Masked Marvel 15/2, Harlstone Times 3/1, City Leader 16/1, Blue Bajan 9/2, Tazahum 7/2, Malthouse 15/2 (saver), Show Maiden 11/4, The Cheka 8/1, Set The Trend 12/1. (267.2)
Average priced individual winner 5/1 (16.7%).Value Is EverythingHad:
150 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Frankel (to win 30 points)
Won’t stay.
50 points @ 5/2 (WH) Carlton House
So:
Using my Frankel winnings (30 points profit) and some (20 points) Carlton House (potential winnings) thought I’d get out of Carlton House:
Value Is EverythingJust to explain things a bit better, I’ve had these bets for the Epsom Derby:
26 points @ 10/1 (b365 bog) Seville
13 points @ 8/1 (PP) Seville50 points @ 5/2 (WH) Carlton House (wins 125 points)
If Carlton House wins then 67 points come off my winnings of 125 making a profit of 58 points on Carlton House. Minus 39 points of Seville’s bets, plus 30 for Frankel = race profit of 49 points.If Carlton House loses then I win 20 points from my lay bet and 30 from my Frankel lay = 50 points which pays for my back bet on Carlton House. Leaving the two Seville bets to stand on their own.
Or have I complicated things still further?
Value Is EverythingEpsom Coronation Cup
57 points @ 2/1 (PP) MiddayAnother:
4 points @ 13/8 (WH) Midday
12 points @ 43/1 (betfair) Indian DaysCoronation Cup Epsom
1/ Dandino 4 9-0 (Mullrennen / Given)
Impressive on reappearance, breaking the 1½m track record at Ripon when scoring in a conditions race by 11 lengths. Then just got back up to beat Native Ruler a nose in Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2), getting one pound. 4 lengths third there was stable companion Indian Days who gave 4lbs to his mate and renews rivalry here. Runner-up went on to frank the form with a close 4th to Duncan in Yorkshire Cup. Fourth home Campanologist well below form. Dandino probably has a little more improvement in him, but doubtful enough to challenge market principles if either runs their race. Course and distance winner at this meeting last year. Also successful at Royal Ascot and good second to Rebel Soldier in Gordon stakes at Goodwood. Won on soft ground on 2010 reappearance, but improved since on a sound surface. Very genuine with a turn of foot.
7¾ % 12/1
2/ Indian Days 6 9-0 (Hanagan / Given)
Beaten 4 lengths trying to give 4 pounds to Dandino in Jockey Club Stakes and is at level weights here. Although Indian Days does not have as good a chance as his stable mate, its puzzling why they are that far apart in the betting; 9/1 and 33/1. Earlier won John Porter (Group 3) at Newbury, giving 5 lbs and just holding on by a head from Bridge Of Gold. Subsequent Brigadier Gerrard second Poet didn’t handle the ground and trainer of fourth, Michael Bell was in poor form at the time. Indian Days won the 2010 Bosphorus Cup (a valuable Group 2) in Turkey, from Sri Putra by 2½ lengths at level weights. Equally effective on a soft or firm surface. It will be interesting to see what tactics are used; had been a front runner prior to winning at Goodwood last year. Genuine.
4¾% 20/1
3/ St Nicholas Abbey 4 9-0 (Moore / O’Brien)
Seemed destined for the top when winning Racing Post Trophy. Then disappointed only start at three, just 6th in 2000 Guineas as Evens favourite. With such little racing, it is probable something physical has ailed him. This term, came on a lot for reappearance with an impressive Group 3 Huxley Stakes win. Possibly helped by main rival Harris Tweed (level weights) getting involved in a fight for the lead, going off too quickly and not even holding on for third. St Nicholas Abbey looked to have plenty in hand when passing the post 11 lengths clear of Allied Powers (levels). However, with all runners usually held up, it’s expected the Coronation Cup will be a totally different test to the strongly run 1m5f at Chester. Has a good chance if able to build on that performance; though it’s surprising he’s so short in the betting.
42¾% 11/8
4/ Clowance 6 8-11 (Hughes / Charlton)
Lightly raced and had plenty of entries this season without a run; in form trainer is loathed to run her on a firm surface. Big mare with a poor action and much better form on a soft surface. Five may become four. Won 2010 St Simon Stakes quite easily by 2 lengths from Poet who was giving 6 lbs. Excellent runner-up to Alandi in 09 Irish St Leger. Like so many by Monjeu, she has shown a quirky side.
2% 50/1
5/ Midday 5 8-11 (Queally / Cecil)
Wonderful mare. At least as good as ever on reappearance. Beat Sajjhaa 2 lengths with stable companion Timepiece a further 4 back in third; giving 5 lbs to both. Prolific Group 1 winner against her own sex. Won Nassau Stakes for second successive year from Stacelita, idling in front. Midday hasn’t taken on colts in a Group 1 race, but plenty she’s beaten have. She also won the Yorkshire Oaks by an easy 3 lengths from Snow Fairy, who went on to twice beat the colts in the Far East. Pix Vermaille, by ¾ length and ½ from Plumania and Sarafina. Former earlier winner in Grand Prix de Saint Cloud against male Youmzain. Latter went on to finish around 2 ¾ lengths third to Workforce in the Arc. Already proven at Epsom, Midday has improved since chasing home Sariska in the Oaks. A filly who was going well two out before finding little in last years Coronation Cup. Equally effective on a soft and firm surface and from 10 to 12 furlongs. Genuine and consistent.
42¾% 11/8
Value Is Everything2011 Oaks
17 points @ 12/1 (pp) Havant50 points @ 9/2 (Skybet) Blue Bunting
6 points @ 25/1 (Tote) Wonder Of Wonders
75 points @ 2.9/1 (betfair) Blue Bunting
(winning 25.86 points)
Getting half of the stake on BB back.8 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Misty For Me
Value Is Everything"Gingertipster":zyflah0f wrote:
2011 Oaks
17 points @ 12/1 (pp) Havant50 points @ 9/2 (Skybet) Blue Bunting
6 points @ 25/1 (Tote) Wonder Of Wonders
75 points @ 2.9/1 (betfair) Blue Bunting
(winning 25.86 points)
Getting half of the stake on BB back.8 points @ 8/1 (betfair) Misty For Me
3 points @ 20/1 (b365) Siren’s Song
Value Is EverythingEpsom Oaks
1/ Beatrice Aurore (Durcan / J Dunlop) Drawn 3:
Comes from the handicap route, but won the Height Of Fashion (Group 3) at Goodwood. Didn’t seem to be going especially well on the inner until pulled out into the clear, displaying a good turn of foot. By Danehill Dancer who isn’t a big stamina influence, but dam Mondschein (by Rainbow Quest) won at 1½m and the way Beatrice Aurore runs suggests she’ll get the trip. Owner Benny Anderson of Abba has been a loyal supporter of John Dunlop over the years. My price to 100%
6% 16/1
2/ Blaise Chorus (M Hills / B Hills) 13:
Isn’t up to this. Tried to make all when 2¾ lengths second to Wonder Of Wonders at Chester (1m3f79yrds). One place and 3½ lengths in front of the more conservatively ridden Fork Handles. Still a maiden and likely t remain so.
1/8% 800/1
3/ Blue Bunting (Dettori / Zarooni) 6:
Winner of the Guineas and bred to be much better at this trip. Half sister to a stayer and dam is sister to another stayer. Sire is American stamina influence Dynaformer. Blue Bunting possibly got the run of the race more than most at Newmarket. Held up behind a host of horses, taking relief from a strong headwind. First three home came from well back. However, ¾ length second Together franked the form in coming a good ¾ length second to Misty For Me. On form the two Guineas winners are the same horse, although Blue Bunting has the breeding to go with it.
27% 11/4
4/ Dancing Rain (Murtagh / Haggas) 7:
Only thrice raced. Just beaten head by Izzi Top in the Newbury Oaks Trial (1m2f listed). Getting back at her in the finish. Pulled quite hard early in a slowly run race and may be able to improve further if settling better. Another by Danehill Dancer (see Beatrice Aurore), Dancing Rain is a full sister to Captain Dancer, a mile winner who ran well at 1¼m and yet to tackle 1½m. So she is not certain to get the trip.
2¾% 33/1
5/ Eirnin (JP O’Brien / A O’Brien) 10:
25/1 9th of 10 finishers in Naas 1m2f Group 3 on latest start. Held up there but may be her job here is as pacemaker. Looks totally outclassed.
1/10% 1000/1
6/ Fork Handles (Spencer / Channon) 1:
No reason to think she can reverse the 6¼ lengths deficit to Wonder Of Wonders at Chester. Between the pair was front runner Blue Bunting, but like that one is an outsider here. Not ideally drawn.
1/5% 500/1
7/ Havant (Moore / Stoute) 9:
Only around 5½ lengths 6th to Blue Bunting in the 1000 Guineas. Outpaced in final stages. Bred for middle-distances. Half brother, Leadership won a Group 1 in Italy at 1½m and he is by Selkirk, usually a lesser influence of stamina than Havant’s sire Halling. She could show big improvement from Newmarket, however, there is also a strong possibility she’ll prove best with give underfoot. Has a rounded action and her two impressive performances at two (including the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes) were on a soft surface. Had subsequent UAE Derby and Oaks winner Khawlah beaten 5 lengths in that.
14½% 6/1
8/ Izzi Top (Buick / Gosden) 2:
Beat Dancing Rain a head at Newbury off a slow pace. Like her old rival only thrice raced and more improvement possible (and needed). Said by stable to need some give, but the ground in Berkshire was quite fast. Although by Pivotal, she is from the family of Gold Cup winner Kayf Tara and the way she runs should get this trip. Not ideally drawn.
3% 33/1
9/ Misty For Me (Heffernen / A O’Brien) 4:
Won the Irish Guineas with exactly the same distance back to Together as Blue Bunting in the English version. Weak 9/1 shot when well beaten 11th at Newmarket herself, at a time Aidan O’Brien’s horses needed their first run of the season. Ground was soft at Longchamp for the Boussac, beating Helleborine a length. Good-firm in the Moyglare by a length from Laughing Lashes. Also had Laughing Lashes 1 ¾ lengths behind in the Irish Guineas on good ground. On jockey bookings is only the stable second string. Misty For Me isn’t very big, and it’s possible others will improve past her; but she sets a good standard and looks over-priced at around 8/1 on betfair.
14¼% 6/1
10/ Siren’s Song (Berry / Harrington) 5:
The “Siren’s Song” I know is by Billy Bragg (the singer) and Mrs Harrington’s Siren’s Song “won’t be long” in proving Group class. She won the listed Salsabil Stakes (1m2f good-soft) on the second of just two starts. Coming with a wet sail to get up late. By multiple Group 1 (including King George) winner Azamour who’s made a great start to his stud career. Dam Lure was third to Banks Hill in Group 2 Prix Sandringham at a mile. The way Siren’s Song was finishing at Navan suggests strongly will be fully effective at 1½ miles. Yet to race on a firm surface.
6% 16/1
11/ Why (Barzalona / A O’Brien) 11:
Like Eirnin from the Aidan O’Brien stable, does not look up to this standard. Despite being held up last time, may be in here as a pacemaker. Brilliant young jockey Mickael Barzalona gets his first ride in the Oaks.
1/8% 800/1
12/ Wonder Of Wonders (Fallon / A O’Brien) 12:
Won the listed Cheshire Oaks from Blaise Chorus and Fork Handles by 2¾ and 3½ lengths. Form is nothing exceptional, but did it all with comparative ease. Came through the field and went clear in no time. Big sort who could improve significantly and go on improving. Beautifully bred to win an Epsom Classic, out of Oaks second All Too Beautiful; sister to one Derby winner (and exceptional sire) Galileo, and half sister another in the great Sea The Stars. Drawn next to two stable companions.
20% 4/1
13/ Zain Al Boldan (Hitchcott / Channon) 8:
Won Lingfield Oaks Trial by 6 lengths under today’s pilot. However, there are holes in the form. Second Field Of miracles is only a Kempton maiden. Third placed Date With Destiny subsequently only 5th to Beatrice Aurore at Goodwood. Albeit by 4 lengths less than she was beaten by Zain Al Boldan. Distances possibly more to do with a slower pace in the Height Of Fashion. Very likely to stay the extra furlong. Already of a higher quality than breeding. Sire Poliglote yet to produce a Group 1 winner. Best known for his ½ length second to Celtic Swing in French Derby (then 1½m).
6% 16/1
Value Is Everything26 points @ 10/1 (b365 bog) Seville
13 points @ 8/1 (PP) Seville50 points @ 5/2 (WH) Carlton House (wins 125 points)
10 points @ 28/1 (C, SJ) Memphis Tennessee
10 points @ 41/1 (betfair) Masked MarvelValue Is EverythingEpsom Derby
1/ Carlton House (Moore / Stoute) Drawn 13:
The Queen’s Dante (1m2f88y) winner beat Seville and Pisco Sour by 1½ and 2½ lengths. But more impressive than distances indicate. Not the easiest to load and took a couple of furlongs to settle. In a slowly run race came between horses with head down, looking very genuine. By Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry who is not as great a stamina influence as his racing record suggests; with an average winning distance in Europe of under a mile. However, his dam is Talented who has produced a 1m7f winner by Barathea. She herself won the Sun Chariot Stakes (then a 1¼m Group 2) and placed in Ribblesdale (1½m). The way Carlton House was staying on in the Dante suggests he’ll get the Derby trip, but it is not a given. Has had an eleventh hour setback which puts a question mark about his fitness.
24% 100/30
2/ Castlemorris King (Coumbe / Attwater) 11 (visor1):
Absolutely no chance and should not be allowed in the race. My evaluation of form goes down to 0.05% 2000/1, Castlemorris King does not reach that level.
No Price
3/ Marhaba Malyoon (Spencer / Simcock) 8:
Only a touch above Castlemorris King’s ability, but still not enough to get a percentage. Last of six in a poor Lingfield Derby trial.
No Price
4/ Masked Marvel (Buick / Gosden) 5:
Won the slowly run listed Cocked Hat (1m3f) at Goodwood. Taking time to reach full stride, but going further clear in the finish. 3 lengths second Namibian did not do much for the form at Newmarket when 4th to Laajooj. He was hampered there and unsuited by a slight drop in trip, but the form of Goodwood is questionable. However, Masked Marvel will come on for that experience and a stiffer test should suit. He’s a good looking colt, does not seem to have the quirks of many by stamina influence Monjeu; relaxed at Goodwood. From the family of a German St Leger winner. Current betfair odds of around 40/1 appear to underestimate his chance.
4% 25/1
5/ Memphis Tennesse (JP O’Brien / A O’Brien) 6:
Coolmore 4th string is by King George winner Hurricane Run, dam from the family of Ebor winner Honolulu. Bred to be much better at 1½m and further than shorter distances. Beaten 1½ lengths by Recital in Leopardstown Derby Trial (1¼m). Seems far more straightforward and did not have the benefit of a run like his apparently more illustrious stable companion. Available at infinitely better odds too. Ridden by trainer’s son.
5¾ % 16/1
6/ Native Khan (Murtagh / E Dunlop) 3:
By Azamour who although won the King George and other middle-distance Group 1’s, also had enough speed to win the St James’s Palace (1m). Half brother to a 1½m winner (by Victory Note), but most of the family seem to be best short of that distance and dam Viva Maria herself won at 6f. Native Khan was third in the Guineas to the great Frankel. Race run at a terrific pace and other than the winner, Native Khan was the only horse to travel well for a long way. That despite many of the field better bred for the mile. I have my doubts whether one who shows so much speed at a mile will stay 1½. If he does, the current price will look big. Kieran Fallon has chosen Recital rather than keep with Native Khan. Despite the stamina doubts I still make him slight value at around 12/1.
9½% 10/1
7/ Ocean War (Dettori / Zarooni) 10:
Godolphin have had several horses thought of as better Derby candidates than Ocean War. Whether that is a positive or negative, I am not sure. Casamento goes to France, but their best hope was probably Dubai Prince who is injured. Ocean War won the listed Newmarket Stakes by 2 ¼ lengths from Cai Shen. More needed but is progressive. By Arc winner Dalakhani out of sprinter Sea Gift. The way he stays on over 1¼m suggests takes after his sire.
5¼ % 18/1
8/ Pisco Sour (Fortune / Morrison) 1:
In the coffin box draw. A lot of those in stall 1 are cut off when others come over after the first right-handed kink. However, Pisco Sour is (if the Dante is anything to go by) a front-runner. May be able to get out of trouble. Being beaten a total of 4 lengths by Derby favourite Carlton House and just 2 ½ from Seville; might make 100/1 look tremendous value. But looked grossly flattered that day. Favoured by setting a slow pace before kicking for home. Sire USA Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid is a fair stamina influence. Dam only ran twice and is by South African champion Horse Chestnut. Talented trainer Hughie Morrison does not usually tilt at windmills, but when he does it’s with this owner.
½% 200/1
9/ Pour Moi (Barzalona / Fabre) 7:
It’s not really the form that makes him a challenger, but the way he did it. Won easily despite having to come from last to first in Prix Greffulhe (Group 2 1m2f). Trainer has said this is his best chance of winning the Derby, but his feelings for the horse must have changed after the race. Otherwise would not have gone off 12/1, and also big outsider of 5 when only 3rd penultimate start. Apparently put up an outstanding time in a piece of work at Epsom under his young rider. Without the trainer’s words would not have been so well backed this week. Another by Monjeu, from a middle-distance female line. Obvious potential for better, particularly over this trip, but has something to find on form with some bigger priced rivals. The Greffulhe 1½ length second Bubble Chic had been beaten 5 lengths by Recital in Criterium de Saint Cloud as a two year old. Pour Moi is owned by Coolmore who also have the Aidan O’Brien trained quartet.
14½% 6/1
10/ Recital (Fallon / O’Brien) 4:
Form of his Group 1 win in Criterium de Saint Cloud boosted when runner-up finished in the same position but 3½ lengths closer to Pour Moi. Connections blamed the strong headwind for Recital’s antics in the Leopardstown Trial (1¼m). Raced with head high (though did as a two year old too). Also hung badly left and looks as though he might be one of those Montjeu’s who’s temperament goes the wrong way. Needs to learn from the experience. Reportedly going to be held up for a later run tomorrow. If he hangs badly left on a comparatively flat course, is unlikely to be suited to Epsom. Although Recital’s sire is a strong stamina influence; half-brother Racinger (by primarily middle-distance sire Spectrum) was a miler. Full brother Corre Caminos won the Prix Ganay at 1m2½f which is the furthest he raced. Most of the dam’s progeny are milers. So is not a given to stay, especially as he’s a quirky, nervy sort.
13½% 13/2
11/ Seville (Soumillon / O’Brien) 2:
Stable’s runners have been needing their first run. Although travelled well for a long way in the slowly run Dante (1m2f88y) is bred to be much better at 1½m and more. By Galileo out of Silverskaya who finished 8th in the Arc, with stamina influence Silver Hawk as maternal grand-sire. There is every chance of big improvement in a fast run Derby. Has enough speed to finish a good ¾ length second to Casamento in Racing Post Trophy (1m), only a month after his debut. Going was good at Doncaster and good-firm at York. Soumillon keeps the ride and it is to be hoped he’s learnt from the experience. A prominent position should be first option, especially as often horses come across to block those drawn low. Still excellent value at around 7/1.
17% 5/1
12/ Treasure Beach (O’Donaghue / O’Brien) 12:
Won Chester Vase (1½m) first time up, getting first run on Nathanial. Needs to improve a good deal on that form. Didn’t look a top class horse when distant third behind Frankel in the Royal Lodge at two. Hampered by the second when chance had gone. Proven at the trip. Looks coolmore 5th string.
2% 50/1
13/ Vadamar (Lemaire / de Royer Dupre) 9:
Started odds-on to beat Pour Moi in Greffulhe (1¼m) last time. Passed quite easily in closing stages and beaten a total of 2½ lengths. A line through the second Bubble Chic gives him plenty to find with Recital. Very well bred, by Dalakhani out of a Prix Saint Alary (1¼m) winner. Should be suited by the trip. If he had excuses last time would come in to calculations.
4% 25/1
Value Is Everything2:40 Epsom
25 @ 13/2 (PP) St Moritz
10 @ 21/1 (betfair) Nationalism
7 @ 10/1 (betfair) Vesuve
27 @ 1.86/1 (betfair) Premio Loco
8 @ 8.8/1 (betfair) AwzaanValue Is EverythingHi Ginge, have you typed the right price there on Premio Loco?
Do you mind if I ask you what percentage chance you have him down to win today?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
No typo Nathan. Almost 15/8, 1.86/1 (2.86) was the price on betfair at the time. My prices to 100% are:
Premio Loco 37% (between 13/8 and 7/4)
St Moritz 15.5% 11/2
Awzaan 13% 13/2
Rio De La Plata 11.5% 15/2
Vesuve 11% 8/1
Nationalism 7% 14/1
Fanunalter 4% 25/1
Mac Love 1% 100/1Almost laid Rio De La Plata instead of backing the others, he looks awful value to me, 7 lbs penalty for winning a couple of Italian Group 1’s.
Value Is Everything
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