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There are loads of races you can bet 3 horses in and be guaranteed a profit if you find the winner. Unlike Ginger you most likely wont be backing many horses on pure chance that really no one in their right mind could fancy. You will have a much higher strike rate and will make money.
To be frank I rarely study a race I have a quick look use the betting as my main guide and I have a excellent strike rate. tbh I’m amazed at how much you can win in a week but that’s all I am not here to talk money. What I will say is the lowest point I have hit was when I hit a bad run of 6 races without a winner but was so far ahead I rode it out and clawed it back to 350.13p loss on the day. The next day after 2 races I was back ahead on the 2 days.
Lowest price I will take is 1.85 as betting a horse at say 1.4 when you are on a 400 quid gross take out will cost over 1000 pounds if you don’t find the winner and you’ll need to win 3 races on the trot to get it back.
Hope you don’t mind my input Ginge I am just saying it as I see it. I wouldn’t be doing it if it wasn’t for you and all I have done is tweaked your idea cut out the book side of it and won a lot of money thanks to you…Cheers mate. I couldn’t be bothered studying all day to be prepared and I don’t think it really required and I couldn’t afford the time anyway. Next race is the 4.40 at Chester 6 minutes away you can back the first 4 in the betting for 400 quid and show around 200 quid if any of them wins…….fingers crossed
OMG, don’t blame me if it goes pear shaped Fist. Or should I say when? If you follow my advice you’ll stop
NOW!
While you’re still ahead.
Even if betting 3 or 4 horses in the same race, you still need to get VALUE to show a profit in the LONG RUN. Without studying there is no way of knowing if you’re getting value, therefore you won’t get value enough times to make a profit (given time).
Say you’re backing all 4 favourites each time at an average combined price of around 12 (as you say, 400 to win 200), then it figures you’ll naturally have a very high strike rate. It may well be at the moment you’re doing better than a strike rate of 66.7% (which is what you need at average combined odds of 12)… But the facts are the four horses you back all have bookies mark ups on them, around 2% (or a touch less) per horse at that type of price. With 4 horses, 4 x the mark up (just short of 2) gives around 7% difference. So in the bookmaker’s opinion (or market if they’re late bets) the combined percentage chance of the 12 chance is around
66.7% – 7
= around
60%
so a fair price for the combined price should be around 46,
not 12
.
So
if you are not bothering to consider whether these horses are value
, you’re constantly backing what are in all probability fair 46 shots at 12. Therefore,
eventually
you’ll lose. In practice, it doesn’t matter what the average price taken for the 4 horses is, with an average price of 13 it would be
75%
(13)
– 7
=
66%
roughly 1/2.
So constantly taking 1/3 about fair 1/2 chances
. Despite the seemingly high strike rate Fist, this will
without doubt
eventually result in a
loss
.
Value Is EverythingWow there’s a lot of percentage talk on this page and its going straight over my head!
I thought like I mostly do that I’d got the value on Chil the Kite
today at 20’s but if the bloody thing loses it really makes no difference what price I got! A 20/1 Loser is exactly the same as a 2/1 Loser in my mind.I really dont console myself by saying..Aah well at least I was on at 20’s!
Of course when one of mine comes in at twice the price its returned then I’m the greatest thing since sliced bread,at the moment I’m just picking the crumbs off the floor………ThenNathaniel
won the Arc!
Nothing is gained by getting value about a loser Gord. But if I knows I always get value… Then I can console myself in knowing profit is inevitable.
Value Is Everything2013 2000 Guineas
23 points @ 25/1 (L) Dundonnell*17 points @ 25/1 (L) Moohajim*
Value Is EverythingMoohaajim won the 6f Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes going away by 1 3/4 lengths. In truth the standard of opposition wasn’t great for Group 2 standards.
Runner-up Master Of War placed in both Solario and Richmond. In former only just beaten in a finish of heads by today’s Royal Lodge favourite Fantastic Moon and subsequent Champagne Stakes third Tha’Ir. Beaten half a length at Goodwood by Heavy Metal.
However, Moohaajim had to wait for a gap and could be named the winner from some way out. In reality had plenty in hand of his rivals. Added to that, he’s a good looking individual who (judging from Newbury) has an equable temperament.May be he’s just a sprinter, but seems to settle well and breeding suggests could be even better at a mile. By Lockinge and Queen Anne winner Cape Cross, already responsible for such as Sea The Stars and Ouija Board. Cape Cross stock usually stay at least a mile. His dam Park Appeal was winner of the Chieveley Park and half sister to another Desirable. Cape Cross’s sire Green Desert was Champion Sprinter but would’ve won most 2000 Guineas, runner-up to Dancing Brave in 1986.
Moohaajim’s dam’s sire is Kingmambo, winner of the French 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes and Moulin, all over a mile. Sire of 2 2000 Guineas winners Kings Best and Henrythenavigator, a 1000 Guineas winner Russian Rhythem and French 1000 Guineas winner Divine Proportions. Kingmambo’s dam is the great miler Miesque. Kingmambo’s sire Mr Prospector was a top American sire. Another known for siring milers. Amongst them 1000 Guineas winner Ravinella.
Moohaajim’s dam was Thiella, who won her only start as a 2 year old at 7. Should’ve stayed further but became a bit disappointing at 3. From what’s basically a family who stay further. Her dam Theoretically won a 7f Group 3 as a 2 year old on heavy ground. But at 3 finished a half length 2nd after being slowly away in the 9f Del Mar Oaks, which shows she stayed further. Theoretically’s sire Theatrical won the Breeders Cup turf and finished 2nd in the Irish Derby; a race his son Zargreb won. Another son Royal Anthem won the International.
This is not predominately a sprinting family and Moohaajim should be suited by a mile at three.Value Is EverythingThere are loads of races you can bet 3 horses in and be guaranteed a profit if you find the winner. Unlike Ginger you most likely wont be backing many horses on pure chance that really no one in their right mind could fancy. You will have a much higher strike rate and will make money.
To be frank I rarely study a race I have a quick look use the betting as my main guide and I have a excellent strike rate. tbh I’m amazed at how much you can win in a week but that’s all I am not here to talk money. What I will say is the lowest point I have hit was when I hit a bad run of 6 races without a winner but was so far ahead I rode it out and clawed it back to 350.13p loss on the day. The next day after 2 races I was back ahead on the 2 days.
Lowest price I will take is 1.85 as betting a horse at say 1.4 when you are on a 400 quid gross take out will cost over 1000 pounds if you don’t find the winner and you’ll need to win 3 races on the trot to get it back.
Hope you don’t mind my input Ginge I am just saying it as I see it. I wouldn’t be doing it if it wasn’t for you and all I have done is tweaked your idea cut out the book side of it and won a lot of money thanks to you…Cheers mate. I couldn’t be bothered studying all day to be prepared and I don’t think it really required and I couldn’t afford the time anyway. Next race is the 4.40 at Chester 6 minutes away you can back the first 4 in the betting for 400 quid and show around 200 quid if any of them wins…….fingers crossed
OMG, don’t blame me if it goes pear shaped Fist. Or should I say when? If you follow my advice you’ll stop
NOW!
While you’re still ahead.
Even if betting 3 or 4 horses in the same race, you still need to get VALUE to show a profit in the LONG RUN. Without studying there is no way of knowing if you’re getting value, therefore you won’t get value enough times to make a profit (given time).
Say you’re backing all 4 favourites each time at an average combined price of around 12 (as you say, 400 to win 200), then it figures you’ll naturally have a very high strike rate. It may well be at the moment you’re doing better than a strike rate of 66.7% (which is what you need at average combined odds of 12)… But the facts are the four horses you back all have bookies mark ups on them, around 2% (or a touch less) per horse at that type of price. With 4 horses, 4 x the mark up (just short of 2) gives around 7% difference. So in the bookmaker’s opinion (or market if they’re late bets) the combined percentage chance of the 12 chance is around
66.7% – 7
= around
60%
so a fair price for the combined price should be around 46,
not 12
.
So
if you are not bothering to consider whether these horses are value
, you’re constantly backing what are in all probability fair 46 shots at 12. Therefore,
eventually
you’ll lose. In practice, it doesn’t matter what the average price taken for the 4 horses is, with an average price of 13 it would be
75%
(13)
– 7
=
66%
roughly 1/2.
So constantly taking 1/3 about fair 1/2 chances
. Despite the seemingly high strike rate Fist, this will
without doubt
eventually result in a
loss
.
Pear shaped….cheeky bastid!!..following you a punter could lose 5k in a few days with the mad selections you put up.
You’re talking complete shyte to make a case against my much superior method it’s what we call propaganda
. If my calculations are correct my average selection comes in at 2.476 horses per race NOT 4 and my strike rate in any given week has been just over 68%. Tell you what I will do Ginge. I’ll start a thread called Ginger Proof my starting back is 1000 pound not points. I will have a back up of 1000 pounds I can draw of should I get off to a stinker. If I lose the 2k I am How’s That out!!!!!!
I will increase how much my gross win is every 500 pounds and decrease accordingly. Example if I reach 1500 pound in my bank my take out becomes 150 then 2k it becomes 200 and so forth, Straing of at 100 pounds
Never in a month of Sundays will I lose that 2k.
I’ll post all selections before the off (I hope) then at the end of the day calculate everything using Betfair SP.
I doubt if I’ll have time to time the races as I will actually be backing what I post but I’ll do my best
Tell you what I will do Ginge. I’ll start a thread called Ginger Proof my starting back is 1000 pound not points. I will have a back up of 1000 pounds I can draw of should I get off to a stinker. If I lose the 2k I am
How’s That
out!!!!!!
I’ll believe it Fist, when you’ve reached a century of pages NOT OUT.
Value Is EverythingArc De Triomphe
32 points @ 14/1 (B365) Sea Moon*If you aren’t on yet, get a better price than I’ve got now. 20/1 with Paddy and William. If you want each way (I don’t) then go for Paddy as he’s 1/4 odds.
Value Is EverythingArc De Triomphe
32 points @ 14/1 (B365) Sea Moon*If you aren’t on yet, get a better price than I’ve got now. 20/1 with Paddy and William. If you want each way (I don’t) then go for Paddy as he’s 1/4 odds. (min 12/1)
Saver (will probably have other bets nearer the time on outsiders).
12 points @ 5/1 (WH) Nathaniel (min 5/1)
Value Is EverythingAlready done:
2013 1000 Guineas
20 points @ 25/1 (WH) Certify*
15 points @ 12/1 (L) Certify*Now:
Lay 14 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Certify (£14 available) Liability 117.6 pointsValue Is Everything1:30 Salisbury
32 points @ 9/2 (SJ) Lions Arch* (min 4/1)39 points @ Evens (VC) Greatwood
6 points @ 12.5/1 (betfair) So Beloved (£9 available)Value Is Everything2:00 Salisbury
18 points each way @ 11/1 (PP) Marju Prince*11/1 had gone before I could finish putting the bet up so will call it 10/1 available with Boyle/sporting.
Value Is Everything
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