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Another that looks a two horse race. Expected to be backing The Fugue here, having already backed her for the Oaks. But in my opinion the two fillies should be closer together than what Paddy Power are currently offering. There’s also the fact The Fugue had a hard enough race at Newmarket. Hopefully will be able to come back with a partial saver on that one, IF she drifts as expected. I currently rate it 42% 11/8 The Fugue, 38% 13/8 Twirl and 20% 4/1 (combined) The Field
Value Is Everything3:00 York
60 points @ 4/1 (vc) Hoof It*7 points @ 12/1 (SJ) Definightly
Value Is Everything2:30 York
54 points @ 15/8 (PP) Twirl*Partial (half) saver:
17 points @ 13/8 (FD) The FugueValue Is Everything2:30 York
54 points @ 15/8 (PP) Twirl*Partial (half) saver:
17 points @ 13/8 (FD) The FugueIs there something wrong with The Fugue? Only thing that would explain the changing prices. Out now to 15/8 and Twirl now odds-on. I know The Fugue was reportedly struck in to in the Guineas, but the fact she’s running here suggests she’s over that. Almost 2/1 now on betfair.
Value Is Everything3:00 York
60 points @ 4/1 (vc) Hoof It*7 points @ 12/1 (SJ) Definightly
Definightly now a non-runner.
Can’t hold out waiting for 4/1, got other things to do before racing. So:Saver:
17 points @ 7/2 (b365) MaysonValue Is Everything2:30 York
38 points @ 4/1 (b365) Mandean*
8 points @ 5/1 (b365) FencingValue Is EverythingDon’t normally bet each way ante-post (doubling the risk of non-runner) but with a short priced fav and Laddies being a stand out price… Everything else is right.
Value Is Everything2:30 York
43 points @ 11/2 (sporting) Arctic Cosmos*16 points @ 4/1 (SJ) Harris Tweed
20 points @ 3/1 (FD) Red CadeauxValue Is EverythingHave followed you in on the 8/1 for Bonfire, there’s obviously plenty more to come & he has a great chance of a top 3 finish in what could be a single figure field.
Finding in hard to forgive Artic Cosmos his last poor effort although the ground wasn’t suitable, think Harris Tweed may have improved this year and he may make all from the front so he’ll be carrying my cash.
Have followed you in on the 8/1 for Bonfire, there’s obviously plenty more to come & he has a great chance of a top 3 finish in what could be a single figure field.
Finding in hard to forgive Artic Cosmos his last poor effort although the ground wasn’t suitable, think Harris Tweed may have improved this year and he may make all from the front so he’ll be carrying my cash.
I backed Harris Tweed that day at Newbury Pants. Artic Cosmos just couldn’t handle the soft ground and lost his action badly. Almost pulled up. Where as Harris Tweed loved it. My prices to beat tomorrow for
Good
ground are:
Red Cadeaux 5/2, Harris Tweed 7/2, Artic Cosmos 4/1, Times Up and Be Fabulous 15/2, Blue Bajan 16/1, Electrolyser 80/1, Glen’s Diamond 400/1.
Times today suggest the ground is good, but there is some rain about tonight. If still capable of St Leger form
Artic Cosmos
is the one to beat. That is quite a big IF. Also, if there’s a downpoor I might even swap to
Harris Tweed
and lay Artic Cosmos tomorrow (getting out). That’s provided AC is not a non-runner on a soft surface. Harris Tweed’s action is rounded and he has an excellent record on a soft surface. That 7/2 Harris Tweed would come in to around 5/2 on soft ground, the 4/1 Artic Cosmos going out to around 7/1. No rain would make prices go the other way.
So I still believe Harris Tweed has a better chance (at the moment) than Artic Cosmos. Both Gosden and Haggas are in great form.
AlthoughRed Cadeaux
has (imo) around 1 1/2 times the chance of Artic Cosmos, even on good ground. Consistent too. Fingers crossed he can frank the form of Colour Vision. Amazed Red Cadeaux isn’t entered in the Gold Cup.
Times Up
is interesting if at his best, but needed his first start in other years.
Be Fabulous
is another with a fair chance, but will he be as good for Zarooni? Some from the stable have disappointed recently too.
Blue Bajan
‘s form isn’t far behind the market leaders, but whether he can run to that at the age of 10 remains to be seen.
Electrolyser
shouldn’t be good enough to win, although it’s possible could still scupper Harris Tweed’s chance, if they take each other on up front.
Glen’s Diamond
looks exposed at a lesser level, can’t see him figuring, but I’ve been wrong before.
Value Is Everything
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