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Posts
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2:30 Newmarket
14 points each way @ 18/1 (C) Sadeek’s Song*(Smaller than usual bet)
22 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Masked MarvelOne more main bet to come.
Value Is Everything2:30 Newmarket
14 points each way @ 18/1 (C) Sadeek’s Song*(Corals are 1/4 odds a place)
22 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Masked Marvel
27 points @ 13/1 (betfair) Al Kazeem*
Value Is EverythingMasked Marvel
goes on a soft surface and will be suited by the test of stamina the ground should bring. I say should because there isn’t much pace in the race and could be slowly run. If so it won’t play to his strengths, which is why he’s not the main bet.
Sadeek’s Song
is yet to run on a soft surface and breeding isn’t encouraging in that respect. However, at the prices is worth the risk, especially as he’s done well in slowly run races before. Needs to improve but by no means exposed.
Al Kazeem
is the one horse you’d think would be up there from the word go. Won a very slowly run race last term at Newbury by kicking from the front. Has a bit to find with some of these, but could yet improve. Pace and soft ground are also great levellers. Proven on a soft surface if not quite this soft.
Value Is Everything1000 Guineas
28 points @ 14/1 (PP) Wading31 points @ 8.2/1 (betfair) Lyric Of Light*
17 points @ 10/1 (b365) Discourse*
8 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Moonstone Magic
3 points 28/1 (betfair) The FugueValue Is Everything2:05 Newmarket
30 points @ 6/1 (VC) Anatolin*
31 points @ 15/2 (VC) Sandusky*
7 points @ 22/1 (b365) Bridle Belle2 more to come, 1 main and one saver.
Value Is Everything2:05 Newmarket
30 points @ 6/1 (VC) Anatolin*
31 points @ 15/2 (VC) Sandusky*
7 points @ 22/1 (b365) Bridle Belle2 more to come, 1 main and one saver.
7 points @ 15/2 (C) Local Hero
Value Is Everything2:05 Newmarket
30 points @ 6/1 (VC) Anatolin*
31 points @ 15/2 (VC) Sandusky*
7 points @ 22/1 (b365) Bridle Belle2 more to come, 1 main and one saver.
7 points @ 15/2 (C) Local Hero
9 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Colinca’s Lad*
Value Is Everything2:35 Newmarket
51 points @ 7/2 (L) Khawlah13 points @ 4/1 (b365) Izzi Top
Value Is EverythingGT – you may have covered this earlier soemwhere but, looking at Colincas Lad on BF. It’s available to back for only £3.
Would it be worth stating how much is available ‘to back’ at the price you highlight? It’s not a ‘real’ price, in my view, if you can only back it for £3.
Agree?
In addition – do you take the 5% commission into account when reporting returns from Betfair winners?
I’m a big fan of your thread, a big fan, but just a couple of niggles I have.
GT – you may have covered this earlier soemwhere but, looking at Colincas Lad on BF. It’s available to back for only £3.
Would it be worth stating how much is available ‘to back’ at the price you highlight? It’s not a ‘real’ price, in my view, if you can only back it for £3.
Agree?
Agreed Corm, £3 is no money at all. If I’d seen it available for just £3 I wouldn’t have put the bet up.
Betfair being betfair, the price and amount of money availabe are constantly shifting. When I first read your post I looked to see what was available and there was plenty @ 54/1 (gone back out). I see your post is timed 1 hour 20 minutes after my post. When did you see it avalable for just £3 Corm? Now; after just a few minutes there’s £29 available @ 49/1. See what I mean? Does sometimes take a few minutes for me to get on here and write the bet, so it can change. Have occasionally gone back and reduced the price if I notice it’s no longer available at time of writing. Other times, when I’ve taken all there is available at a certain price, I’ve quoted the next price down, shorter than price I’ve taken myself. On very rare occasions, eg when I’ve done other bets afterwards (before posting) and the price has gone out, I’ve quoted a price bigger than I’ve taken myself. Don’t like (and can’t remember ever doing so) quoting betfair prices near off time; when prices are changing all the time.Quoting betfair prices is not ideal Corm, I only do so when the price available is significantly bigger. Do think when prices are massive, there is some justification in quoting a price when only £25 is available, because not many people bet in large amounts at those odds.
Now, finishing my post, Colinca’s Lad is only available for £2 @ 47/1 and next to it is just £3 @ 45/1.
In future will try to remember to put how much is available in my posts. If you notice a price I’ve quoted is not available immediately after my time of writing, then please tell me and I’ll change it.
Value Is EverythingIn addition – do you take the 5% commission into account when reporting returns from Betfair winners?
I’m a big fan of your thread, a big fan, but just a couple of niggles I have.
No I don’t take the 5% commission in to account Corm. When I first started posting tips on here I asked if it was the done thing. Got the answer not to bother about commission. If you want me to I will?
Colinca’s Lad is now only available @
27/1
for £49
Value Is EverythingUnderstand completely re- the changing odds and trust your word implicitly. I’d suggest just putting an ‘available to £whatever’ figure at the time you post.
Re – betfair comm. It’s up to you. I’d include the 5% commission deduction when putting my returns up though as it is does affect the actual profit. But it’s your thread GT.
Results now include commission where applicable
6:00 Meydan
50 points @ 3/1 (WH)Cirrus Des Aigles
* (SP 11/4)
1st
Return 200 points
10 points @ 5/1 (L) Beaten Up
(60)+140
MB +150
Stakes 60, 2012 Return 200, Profit
+140 points
(Main Bets +150)
1:35 Newbury
34 points @ 8/1 (SJ) Cheveton* (SP 13/2)
Desert Law non-runner
-34
MB -342:40 Newbury
Sans Loi non-runner4:25 Newbury
18 points each way @ 12/1 (b365) Safarjal* (SP 8/1)3rd
Return 61.2 points
(36)
+25.2
MB +25.24:55 Newbury
36 points @ 5/1 (betfair) Gold Rally* (SP 9/2)
36 points @ Evens (SJ) Wrotham Heath (SP 10/11)2nd
-72
MB -36Days Stakes 142, Days Return 61.2, Days Deficit
2:00 Newbury
61 points @ 2/1 (SJ)Harris Tweed
* (SP 6/4)
1st
Return (incl 10p R4) 170.8 points
(61)+109.8
MB +109.8
2:35 Newbury
58 points @ 7/4 (b365) Best Terms (SP 5/2)
10 points @ 6/1 (C) Moonstone Magic (SP 7/2)1st
Return 70 points
(68)+2
MB -58
3:45 Newbury
25 points @ 9/1 (betfair) Mull Of Killoch* (SP 11/1)
9 points @ 49/1 (betfair) George Guru* (SP 25/1)
5 points @ 64/1 (betfair) Take It To The Max* (SP 33/1)
17 points @ 14/1 (WH) Global Village* (SP 14/1)3rd
4 points @ 17.5/1 (betfair) Emilio Largo (SP 16/1)
10 points @ 6/1 (b365) Captain Bertie (SP 7/1) bog1st
Return 80 points
(70)+10
MB -56
4:20 Newbury
53 points @ 3.2/1 (betfair)Minimise Risk
* (SP 15/8)
1st
Return (incl 34.1% reduction factor) 159.18
17 points @ 23/1 (betfair) King Of Dudes* (SP 6/1)
(70)+89.18
MB +89.18
Days Stakes 269, Days Return 479.98, Days Profit
+210.57 points
(Main bets +84.98)
2:30 Sandown
31 points @ 11/2 (b365)Penitent
* (SP 5/1)
1st
Return 201.5 points
36 points @ 5/1 (b365) Questioning* (SP 5/1)2nd
(Side Glance already a non-runner when bets struck)
(67)+134.5
MB +134.5
Days Stakes 67, Days Return 134.5, Days Profit
+134.5 points
(Main Bets +134.5 points)
3:45 Sandown
Hunters Light and Retreive both non-runners so only the saver bet ran, no main bet..
17 points @ 7/2 (FD) Poet (SP 15/8)2nd
-17
Days Stakes 17, Days Return 0, Days Deficit
No main bets.
3:10 Kempton
36 points @ 5/1 (PP) Skilful* (SP 4/1)
22 points @ 9/4 (WH) Side Glance (SP 11/4)3rd
13 points @ 14/1 (WH) Scarf (SP 14/1)
-71
MB -363:45 Kempton
40 points @ 13/2 (C)Colour Vision
* (SP 9/2)
1st
Return 300 points
18 points @ 9/4 (L) Thimaar (SP 5/2) 3rd
(58)+242
MB +260
Days Stakes 129, Days Return 300, Days Profit
+171 points
(Main Bets +224 points)
2:30 Newmarket
14 points each way @ 18/1 (C) Sadeek’s Song* (SP 14/1)
22 points @ 7.8/1 (betfair) Masked Marvel (SP 9/1)
27 points @ 13/1 (betfair)Al Kazeem
* (SP 15/2)
1st
Return 360.45 points
(77)+283.45
MB +305.45
2000 Guineas
18 points @ 20/1 (WH) Harbour Watch* DNR
17 points @ 25/1 (betfair) Fencing*
27 points @ 12/1 (L) Trumpet Major* 4th
16 points @ 5/2 (WH)Camalot
(SP 15/8)
1st
Return 56 points
9 points @ 5/2 (betfair place market) Trumpet Major 4th
5 points @ 59/1 (betfair) Mandean* DNR
2 points @ 5/2 (betfair place market) Trumpet Major
(94)
-38
MB -67Days Stakes 171, Days Return 416.45, Days Profit
+245.45 points
(Main Bets +238.45)
2:05 Newmarket
30 points @ 6/1 (VC) Anatolin* (SP 13/2)
31 points @ 15/2 (VC) Sandusky* (SP 8/1)4th
7 points @ 22/1 (b365) Bridle Belle (SP 20/1)
7 points @ 15/2 (C) Local Hero (SP 5/1)2nd
9 points @ 49/1 (betfair) Colinca’s Lad* (SP 20/1)
-84
MB -702:35 Newmarket
51 points @ 7/2 (L) Khawlah* (13/2)
13 points @ 4/1 (b365) Izzi Top (3/1)1st
Return 65 points
(64)+1
MB -51
1000 Guineas
28 points @ 14/1 (PP) Wading* DNR
31 points @ 8.2/1 (betfair) Lyric Of Light* (SP 8/1)
17 points @ 10/1 (b365) Discourse* (SP 10/1)
8 points @ 10/1 (betfair) Moonstone Magic (SP 13/2)
3 points 28/1 (betfair) The Fugue (SP 22/1) 4th
-87
MB -76Days Stakes 235, Return 65, Days Deficit
Total 2012 Stakes 1090, Total 2012 Return 1657.13,
Total 2012 Profit 567.13 points
(2012 Main Bets +590.33)
2011 Total Stakes 14135.13 points
2011 Total Return 15874.57 points– 80.99 for 5% commission = 15793.58 points
TOTAL 2011 PROFIT 1658.45 points
11.73%Total Thread Stakes 15225.13 points, Total Thread Return 17450.71,
Total Thread Profit 2225.58 points
Profit On Stakes
14.62%
All
results now include 5% commission where bets have been made on betfair.
Value Is Everything
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