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2:40 Haydock
27 points @ 7/1 (PP) Here Comes When* (min 13/2)Now gone with Paddy Power but still there with Stan James.
You had to be pretty quick to get on!
7/1 gone.Value Is Everything2:40 Haydock
27 points @ 7/1 (PP) Here Comes When* (min 13/2)47 points @ 5/1 (VC) Eton Forever* (min 9/2)
Value Is Everything7:10 Newbury
26 points each way @ 8/1 (B365) Buckstay* (min 13/2)Value Is Everything7:10 Newbury
26 points each way @ 8/1 (B365) Buckstay* (min 13/2)Wondering what your thinking is behind this one and Here Comes When? Buckstay’s win record isn’t great and for me Here Comes When has been disappointing outside of Chester and I wonder if there is something about that track that suits him? Maybe I was too cautious in avoiding the 7/1 but certainly happy enough to swerve him at 11/2 and shorter. Perhaps the mind is playing tricks but I find junior Balding a good deal more difficult to get right than his father.
Good luck. I think it has been the poorest week’s racing of the season and other than Cosseted and a small each-way for the Coventry I haven’t found it too difficult to leave them alone.
2:05 Haydock (tomorrow)
50 points @ 100/30 (WH) Cubanita* (min 3/1)15 points @ 20/1 (L) Madame Defarge* (min 20/1)
25 points @ 8/1 (PP) Moment In Time* (min 15/2)
part saver:
10 points @ 100/30 (B365) Astonishing (min 100/30)Value Is Everything7:10 Newbury
26 points each way @ 8/1 (B365) Buckstay* (min 13/2)Wondering what your thinking is behind this one and Here Comes When? Buckstay’s win record isn’t great and for me Here Comes When has been disappointing outside of Chester and I wonder if there is something about that track that suits him? Maybe I was too cautious in avoiding the 7/1 but certainly happy enough to swerve him at 11/2 and shorter. Perhaps the mind is playing tricks but I find junior Balding a good deal more difficult to get right than his father.
Good luck. I think it has been the poorest week’s racing of the season and other than Cosseted and a small each-way for the Coventry I haven’t found it too difficult to leave them alone.
You’re right that Buckstay’s win ratio isn’t great Stilvi, but places regularly which is why I’ve made him a rare each way poke. Has often been given plenty to do in his races and being held up needs them to go a good pace. However, this characteristic is compounded by barely staying 10f. imo A fast run mile suits best. Travelled well at a 10f in slowly run race on reappearance. If he comes on for that run looks well handicapped on the form he was in at the back end of last year on similar ground. Be difficult to keep out of the first three provided they go a decent enough gallop. Hopefully Uncle Dermot and Harry Bosch will encourage each other to go a reasonable clip.
Am surprised you find Andrew Balding difficult to get right, one of my favourite trainers. Outside the top 3 or 4 trainers he gets in to my "trainers in form" more than most.
It’s possible Here Comes When is a Chester specialist Stilvi, but it could be more he’s been ridden more prominently there than elsewhere. Although with three other prominent runnes in the field it will be more difficult. Tracking pace should be fine. More importantly, he’s looked a bit of a thinker in the past and been gelded over the winter, an op that can improve them, case of finally fulfilling potential?Definitely been a poor quality week and today isn’t that much better, suppose we’ve had the Derby trials and now in to pre-Royal Ascot mode. Will look at Cosseted a little later.
Value Is Everything7:40 Newbury
40 points @ 5/1 (C) Igider* (min 5/1)
you might get 11/2 on betfairValue Is Everything7:40 Newbury
40 points @ 5/1 (C) Igider* (min 5/1)
you might get 11/2 on betfair42 points @ 7/2 (B365) Second Step* (min 7/2)
Value Is Everything7:40 Newbury
40 points @ 5/1 (C) Igider* (min 5/1)
you might get 11/2 on betfair42 points @ 7/2 (B365) Second Step* (min 7/2)
part savers:
9 points @ 5/1 (Boyle) Dursey Island (min 5/1)
9 points @ 9/2 (FD) Fastnet Red (min 9/2)Value Is Everything7:10 Newbury
26 points each way @ 8/1 (B365) Buckstay* (min 13/2)16 points @ 12/1 (B365) Harry Bosch* (min 9/1)
10 points @ 40/1 (VC) Mazaaher* (min 20/1)Value Is Everything2:05 Haydock (tomorrow)
50 points @ 100/30 (WH) Cubanita* (min 3/1)I fancied her today as well but she was bitterly disappointing and it’s hard to believe this is the same horse who beat Noble Mission first time up. Five horses rated a stone below her finished ahead of her today, pretty hard to swallow even allowing a couple of improvers in the race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
2:05 Haydock (tomorrow)
50 points @ 100/30 (WH) Cubanita* (min 3/1)I fancied her today as well but she was bitterly disappointing and it’s hard to believe this is the same horse who beat Noble Mission first time up. Five horses rated a stone below her finished ahead of her today, pretty hard to swallow even allowing a couple of improvers in the race.
It is certainly "hard to swallow" Steve.
Can’t take much notice of the Noble Mission form, he gave it away that day and is a far better horse than Cubanita. Even so… Although as you say Steve, there were a couple of improvers from the Gosden yard one/two, proximity of Quiz Mistress suggests at their best – Cubanita, Astonishing and Moment In Time all have better form than the winner. (Lightly raced winner may improve further in subsequent races).
Similar to the John Of Gaunt, Here Comes When didn’t want to go between horses.
Eton Forever below form as well as Garswood… Form not working out at Haydock. But that’s racing! Hopefully will do better at Newbury.Value Is EverythingSecond Step got me out of trouble at Newbury and Buckstay placing was the "saver bet". So a small loss on the day, happy with that after Haydock.
Hopefully get round to doing p/l before Royal Ascot.
Value Is EverythingSecond Step got me out of trouble at Newbury and Buckstay placing was the "saver bet". So a small loss on the day, happy with that after Haydock.
Hopefully get round to doing p/l before Royal Ascot.
Not surprised you are happy with that, even in the maiden about six finished on top of each other. Many races nothing short of bookmakers benefits and it was achievement in itself to find one that wasn’t. Buckstay was produced to win his race but quickly threw in the towel before consenting to run on again when his winning chance had long disappeared. I suspect everything would need to fall right if he is to win a race. The Haydock finish was fought out by two soft ground lovers on drying ground. Here Comes When had every chance but appeared to say no thanks when push came to shove. Not so sure there is a suitable race at Chester so I suspect Balding’s Group race aspirations will never come to fruition.
As for Cosseted just beaten by a better horse although it wasn’t the best of rides stuck outside the slowest horse in the race. Moore had much the better track position.
Oaks
76 points @ 4/1 (FD) Taghrooda* (min 3/1)14 points @ 33/1 (WH) Casual Smile* (min 25/1)
20 points @ 9/2 (Sporting) Marvellous (min 4/1)
2 points @ 66/1 (VC) Inchila (min 66/1)
Value Is EverythingMy 100% book for the Oaks on Good ground:
Marvellous 7/2
Taghrooda 7/2Tarfasha 5/1
Marsh Daisy 14/1
Ihtimal 15/1
Madame Chiang 18/1
Amazing Maria 20/1
Palace 25/1
Volume 25/1Inchila 33/1
Honour Bound 50/1
Lily Rules 132/1
Dazzling 132/1
Momentus 150/1
Regardez 150/1
Anipa 300/1
Island Remede 800/1Value Is EverythingIrish Guineas is the best form on offer and
Marvellous
is bred to be better at this didtance, only negative being only 12 days since a hard race.
Taghrooda
‘s Pretty Polly form has been knocked by those she’s beaten subsequently disappointing. For sure price needed to lengthen after form didn’t "work out", but as often the case media over-stating things has led to an over-correction imo. She won well and by quite a distance. Some behind that day have had excuses too.
Tarfasha
is an improving filly, has a good chance on Blue Wind form and bred to improve at this trip. But is now too short compared to the other two market principals.
Ihtimal
3rd in the 1000, but not bred to stay this far and others look open to more progress.
Marsh Daisy
won well at Goodwood and improving fast. Just wonder what the form is worth. Sire sprinter, dam middle-distance.
Madame Chiang
two wins from two runs including Musidora, looking all about stamina, though this ground is a worry for me.
Amazing Maria
wouldn’t surprise me if proving the best of these in time. However, is a very doubtful stayer whose stable is yet to hit top form.
Palace
has a going doubt, bred to do much better at this trip than the Irish Guineas, but so does her stable companion and has a lot to make up on her.
Volume
could improve further at this trip but others may have more progress in them. Seemed to get her own way in front at Newbury and unlikely to here with Coolmore pacemaker.
Inchila
wasn’t far behind Volume and came from some way back in a slowly run race. Well backed there and may be under-estimated here.
Honour Bound
‘s Lingfield Oaks form doesn’t look good enough, although any Ralph Becket Oaks runner should not be discounted.
Lily Rules
chased home Madame Chiang in the Musidora, though was going best two out and appeared to be weakening late at 10f.
Dazzling
was over 6 lengths behind Tarfasha and races prominently, could be Coolmore’s pacemaker.
Momentus
improved to be a fairly close 3rd to Honour Bound in Lingfield Oks, would need to make another massive step up here to get involved.
Regardez
is the second Becket runner, but it’s difficult to see why she should reverse placings with Madame Chiang in Musidora; beaten almost 3 3/4 lengths.
Anipa
is unbeaten this season, but Chester form doesn’t look great and had run of the race there.
Island Remede
looks outclassed unless the Ed Dunlop bug affected her badly last time.
Value Is Everything
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