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2:40 Ascot
33 points @ 6/1 (VC) Harris Tweed* (min 11/2)28 points @ 9/1 (888) Kelinni* (min 8/1)
11 points @ 13/2 (VC) Area Fifty One (min 6/1)
6 points @ 12/1 (SJ) Elidor (min 11/1)Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Very unlucky there Ben,
I think Integral will prove best of the two principles. Unfortunate one of the two possible front runners a non-runner, no competition for the early lead meant the German horse set slowish fractions. Esoteric being in a more prominent (better) posi for when the pace increased.
Thought she was going to do it but never managed to get on terms with the winner, oh well, still very interested to see how Integral does this season, and Sky Lantern too for that matter.
What are your thoughts on Lockwood in the 4.05 Haydock? I really like him but the worry is SBS has had 3 losing favourites in the last week (2 yesturday), though the fact that Ihtimaal ran a great race in the guinneas after a couple of months layoff is a plus.
4:00 Lingfield
31 points @ 12/1 (B365) Pavlosk* (min 9/1)Savers:
17 points @ 11/4 (PP) Winning Express
14 points @ 7/2 (VC) Dalayna
(probably increase one to a main bet in the morning)Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
Active Spirit another one I really like tomorrow in the 2.25 Haydock, could prove to be a really classy horse.
Very unlucky there Ben,
I think Integral will prove best of the two principles. Unfortunate one of the two possible front runners a non-runner, no competition for the early lead meant the German horse set slowish fractions. Esoteric being in a more prominent (better) posi for when the pace increased.Thought she was going to do it but never managed to get on terms with the winner, oh well, still very interested to see how Integral does this season, and Sky Lantern too for that matter.
What are your thoughts on Lockwood in the 4.05 Haydock? I really like him but the worry is SBS has had 3 losing favourites in the last week (2 yesturday), though the fact that Ihtimaal ran a great race in the guinneas after a couple of months layoff is a plus.
SBS isn’t in bad form Ben, but as you rightly say not great either. Worry for me would be the ground. Haydock is in for a lot of rain and already (officially at any rate) good-soft… And I wouldn’t trust the Clerk at Haydock (Mr Tellwright) to tell it right anyway. Lockwood has form on soft, but not soft/heavy. Plus, 7f may well be his limit stamina-wise. This is 7f, but on soft going with three prominent racers in the field – if very soft could be a little too testing for him.
In contrast, Highland Colori has already won @ 7f on heavy ground and his trainer Andrew Balding is in excellent form. imo Should be favourite.
Be worth a saver on Breton Rock just in case they go off too quick in front.
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
SBS isn’t in bad form Ben, but as you rightly say not great either. Worry for me would be the ground. Haydock is in for a lot of rain and already (officially at any rate) good-soft… And I wouldn’t trust the Clerk at Haydock (Mr Tellwright) to tell it right anyway. Lockwood has form on soft, but not soft/heavy. Plus, 7f may well be his limit stamina-wise. This is 7f, but on soft going with three prominent racers in the field – if very soft could be a little too testing for him.
In contrast, Highland Colori has already won @ 7f on heavy ground and his trainer Andrew Balding is in excellent form. imo Should be favourite.
Great point about the stamina issues, especially as I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Lockwood wasn’t 100% fit yet. Highland Colori does seem a more solid option especially considering Baldings form.
4:05 Haydock
71 points @ 11/4 (PP) Highland Colori* (min 9/4)18 points @ 4/1 (B365) Breton Rock (min 4/1)
Value Is EverythingIf Custom Cut, Highland Colori and Glory Awaits all run there’s chance of them cutting each others throats, so have saved on a hold up horse.
Value Is EverythingActive Spirit another one I really like tomorrow in the 2.25 Haydock, could prove to be a really classy horse.
Time for bed, I’ll take a look at Active Spirit’s race in the morning (or afternoon if I’m not up early enough
) Ben.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
I think Highland Colori will try and run the stuffing out of the others tomorrow and the more I look at the race the better he’s looking, especially with the form of Andrew Balding.
Will no doubt be on here tomorrow too so interested to hear what you think about that Active Spirit, I just think Matalebb is being overhyped on his maiden win and don’t think there’s much to be worried about in the other runners. Believe Active Spirit will only improve for the step up in trip too and may very well be a different class, though it remains to be seen how he’ll handle the potentially soft/heavy ground.
I think Highland Colori will try and run the stuffing out of the others tomorrow and the more I look at the race the better he’s looking, especially with the form of Andrew Balding.
Will no doubt be on here tomorrow too so interested to hear what you think about that Active Spirit, I just think Matalebb is being overhyped on his maiden win and don’t think there’s much to be worried about in the other runners. Believe Active Spirit will only improve for the step up in trip too and may very well be a different class, though it remains to be seen how he’ll handle the potentially soft/heavy ground.
Had a quick look at the 2:25 Ben, Active Spirit, Matalebb and Chatez are all progressive sorts with similar chances. Think it’s between the three but that’s how the betting sees it too. Matalebb probably has marginally the best form, but on breeding (American) is less likely to act on the ground than the other two. Therefore, I’d have Active Spirit and Chatez ahead of the Gosden horse.
Active Spirit won impressively on only start, Godolphin horses are usually pretty straight on debut, but should improve. By Pivotal, who’s progeny usually do well on soft grouund, although dam Local Spirit never ran on a soft surface. Local Spirit was second in the Lancashire Oaks, so you’re right – Active Spirit should be suited by this trip. Pivotl was a sprinter but gets plenty of horses who stay further. Having said that, 1m on soft is quite a lot different to 6f on good.
Chatez shouldn’t be dismissed, already proven on heavy and stamina proven. Steadily progressive.
If I was going to have a bet in the race would’ve wanted to back one of Active Spirit and Chatez and saved on the other (and possibly Matalebb too). But prices don’t allow that. Don’t let me put you off though Ben, Active Spirit has a great chance.
Value Is EverythingOaks
76 points @ 4/1 (FD) Taghrooda* (min 3/1)14 points @ 33/1 (WH) Casual Smile* (min 25/1)
Value Is Everything- Total Posts 764
If I was going to have a bet in the race would’ve wanted to back one of Active Spirit and Chatez and saved on the other (and possibly Matalebb too). But prices don’t allow that. Don’t let me put you off though Ben, Active Spirit has a great chance.
Later on after we were chatting I looked at Active Spirits time for his debut win and I believe it was 7 slower than average, suggesting he was flattered by the way he drew clear, would seem as though the oppositon that day were poor and maybe a lot of them would have benefited from a quciker pace. By this time I think Active Spirit was 9/4 so I passed over the race. Ended up backing Highland Colori as I continued to look through his race and found him incredibly difficult to faulter. I wrongly assumed he’d be the consistent horse in the field!
Seems a hard day tomorrow but Jack Dexter is undoubtedly a good bet at 5/1, I backed him on his reappearance where he looked in need of the run and although he should come on for the run there’s a couple of potential improvers (Astaire worries me the most, especially receiving weight). Having said that, it could well be a repeat of the Sole Power win last week where the top form horse proves too good for the young pretenders early on in the season when benefiting from a fitness edge.
The Navan meeting looks to have some good 2yo’s in it (especially from Aiden) and this War Envoy looks very smart…….If I was a millionaire that 4/9 would be gobbled up as long as it doesn’t rain
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Oaks
76 points @ 4/1 (FD) Taghrooda* (min 3/1)14 points @ 33/1 (WH) Casual Smile* (min 25/1)
I like Casual Smile (at the odds), think people are going OTT about her not meeting expectations on the weekend, she didn’t like the door being shut on here and seemed to fold soon after, I don’t think she’d have won anyway but she’ll only improve for that run.
Palace was another I like but having seen Pricewise tip her I’d expect to see her price drop in the next few days/weeks. Would also like to see how she does over further before making a bet.
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