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4:15 Newbury
29 points @ 8/1 (L) Burwaaz* (min 7/1)45 points @ 9/2 (C) Steps* (min 9/2)
Hopefully Corals will allow you more than a fiver!
Value Is Everything4:15 Newbury
29 points @ 8/1 (L) Burwaaz* (min 7/1)45 points @ 9/2 (C) Steps* (min 9/2)
Two thirds saver:
18 points @ 11/4 (L) Dutch Msterpiece (min 11/4)Value Is EverythingHi Ginge,
Interested what you do when you can’t get on at the prices…do you wait for betfair liquidity?
3:05 Newbury
62 points @ 9/4 (PP) Western Hym* (min 2/1)Interested in your reasoning here as it doesn’t strike me as your usual bet as there appears plenty of guesswork involved. Obviously, he was visually impressive but he did start 6/1 (longer price than the horse who finished last) and the subsequent performances of his closest pursuers suggest it was a (possibly very) weak maiden. For what its worth I prefer two of the others tomorrow in what looks a much more difficult task.
I dont know what gingers reasoning will be but trainer form is a plus, Gosden has sent out 5 winners from 8 runners in the last 2 days.
Hit um while their hot.Blackbeard to conquer the World
3:05 Newbury
62 points @ 9/4 (PP) Western Hym* (min 2/1)Interested in your reasoning here as it doesn’t strike me as your usual bet as there appears plenty of guesswork involved. Obviously, he was visually impressive but he did start 6/1 (longer price than the horse who finished last) and the subsequent performances of his closest pursuers suggest it was a (possibly very) weak maiden. For what its worth I prefer two of the others tomorrow in what looks a much more difficult task.
Nathan is right, trainer form has a big influence on me, particularly this time of year. Also Stilvi, I don’t see why the fact he was "6/1" is a negative. If not expected to win or not thought ready – then a horse could improve significantly once ready.
Western Hymn
didn’t just win, he won very easily, without resort to the whip. With 2 3/4 lengths back to the second and 2 1/2 to the third. Third placed Roskilly’s form afterwards hasn’t been great, but was fairly good before this maiden. Fourth placed Domascene has franked the form since, Western Hymn beat him very easily and by 7 lengths, yet only beaten half a length since with the winner pretty much all out. So I don’t agree, I’ve even backed the second horse in that race Be My Gal for the 5:15 Maiden.
Western Hymn’s form might not be technically as ggod as some here, but allowance needs to be made for ease of victory and he’s had fewer runs too. Therefore, probably capable of more improvement than any of the others.
I was at Salisbury when
Snow Sky
won and was impressed at the time. But that was on bottomless ground and whether the form is what it seems remains to be seen.
Do like
Scotland
, from another in form stable. I expected to be backing him, but his price is now only just better than the favourite.
Shankly
disappointed on a soft surface after a good debut on a sound surface.
If I back another horse/s it’s likely to be one or more of the outsiders.
Double Bluff
was progressive prior to his final start on very soft ground. And (if
Belfilo
is not used as pacemaker) might get an easy lead. Latter named can not be dismissed either, being a gradual improver with Oisin’s claim always a plus.
God’s Speed
also a similar type. Although it has to be said those three are probably capable of less improvement as the others.
What are the two you’re interested in Stilvi?
Value Is EverythingI like STEPS but is form in spring over the last few years a concern, normally starting in May? And not running particularly well. Or is this just a coincidence?
Hi Ginge.,
Hopefully the early flat season results will be kinder to you this year than last – frankly can`t stand to see you in tears so often!!
Presume you`ll be going to Newbury today? Personally i`ve decided on Fontwell as the card is interesting, but will see you tomorrow all things being well. Hopefully Johnny G. can get you off to a nice start today.
3:05 Newbury
62 points @ 9/4 (PP) Western Hym* (min 2/1)22 points @ 12/1 (FD) Double Bluff* (min 11/1)
Value Is Everything5:15 Newbury
59 points @ 11/4 (Sporting) Be My Gal* (min 5/2)11/4 gone before I could put the bet up so will call it 5/2 with PP.
Value Is Everything3:05 Newbury
62 points @ 9/4 (PP) Western Hym* (min 2/1)Interested in your reasoning here as it doesn’t strike me as your usual bet as there appears plenty of guesswork involved. Obviously, he was visually impressive but he did start 6/1 (longer price than the horse who finished last) and the subsequent performances of his closest pursuers suggest it was a (possibly very) weak maiden. For what its worth I prefer two of the others tomorrow in what looks a much more difficult task.
Nathan is right, trainer form has a big influence on me, particularly this time of year. Also Stilvi, I don’t see why the fact he was "6/1" is a negative. If not expected to win or not thought ready – then a horse could improve significantly once ready.
Western Hymn
didn’t just win, he won very easily, without resort to the whip. With 2 3/4 lengths back to the second and 2 1/2 to the third. Third placed Roskilly’s form afterwards hasn’t been great, but was fairly good before this maiden. Fourth placed Domascene has franked the form since, Western Hymn beat him very easily and by 7 lengths, yet only beaten half a length since with the winner pretty much all out. So I don’t agree, I’ve even backed the second horse in that race Be My Gal for the 5:15 Maiden.
Western Hymn’s form might not be technically as ggod as some here, but allowance needs to be made for ease of victory and he’s had fewer runs too. Therefore, probably capable of more improvement than any of the others.
I was at Salisbury when
Snow Sky
won and was impressed at the time. But that was on bottomless ground and whether the form is what it seems remains to be seen.
Do like
Scotland
, from another in form stable. I expected to be backing him, but his price is now only just better than the favourite.
Shankly
disappointed on a soft surface after a good debut on a sound surface.
If I back another horse/s it’s likely to be one or more of the outsiders.
Double Bluff
was progressive prior to his final start on very soft ground. And (if
Belfilo
is not used as pacemaker) might get an easy lead. Latter named can not be dismissed either, being a gradual improver with Oisin’s claim always a plus.
God’s Speed
also a similar type. Although it has to be said those three are probably capable of less improvement as the others.
What are the two you’re interested in Stilvi?
I wouldn’t expect the market to ‘miss’ a Gosden debutant running in a poor maiden. Perhaps he is better than what those who should have had the best idea thought. We shall see.
Personally, I don’t like backing once-raced animals from the top stables in races such as this. It is very easy for them to go off (far) too short.
The two I backed last night were Scotland and Double Bluff. Double Bluff is pretty obvious. His form is probably better than the favourite and he was 7 times the price, I doubt he wanted the soft ground (Johnston tends to run whatever the surface) and there is a possibility he might nick a lead. As a rule I would sooner back a Johnston outsider than a favourite. In my opinion Scotland has the best form on offer, has plenty of scope and no surprise if he finds Newbury more suitable than Epsom. Happy for the ground to dry out for both of them.
Having said that plenty of guesswork involved at this time of year.
Good luck.
I agree with your assessment of Scotland and Double Bluff Stilvi. Got a bit of 3/1 taken on the machine overnight, but not even enough for half a saver. As always, too greedy with trying to get 16.5/1 Double Bluff overnight (not taken) so had to take 12/1 this morning. Impressed me at Goodwood as one who’ll keep finding a bit more.
Value Is Everything
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