- This topic has 2,646 replies, 45 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Arc De Triomphe
35 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Novellist* (min 11/2)(£179 available)
19 points @ 16.5/1 (betfair) Al Kazeem* (min 14/1)(£44 available)Novellist non-runner.
20 points @ 10/1 (SJ) Ruler Of The World* (min 9/1)
saver:
18 points @ 4.7/1 (betfair) Treve (min 4/1)Value Is EverythingMy 100% Book for soft ground:
Orfevre 3/1Treve 7/2
Ruler Of The World 7/1
Al Kazeem 9/1Kizuna 10/1
Intello 18/1
Leading Light 18/1
Flintshire 20/1Ocovango 40/1
Penglai Pavillion 66/1
Pirika 132/1
Meandre 250/1
Very Nice Name 400/1
Haya Landa 500/1
Joshua Tree 500/1
Going Somewhere 500/1
Sahawar 1000/1Treve is currently available @ 9/2
Ruler Of The World @ 10/1
Al Kazeem @ 16/1
If I had not already backed Novellist – Treve would also be a "main bet" instead of a saver.
Ocovango and Penglai Pavillion are slightly better than my price on exchanges, but not at the moment enough for a margin for error.Value Is EverythingGood to hear you have done well, well done.
Jumping season ahead of you I am sure you are looking forward to, all the best with that.
Which bookmakers have you found problematic generally? Have you any ideas going forward as to how you might work around it?
Thanks tb,
Sure am looking forward to the jumps season. Planning an increase in stakes too, probably at the Paddy Power meeting. Hope it rains and keeps raining, for consistent going like last year. Still in Flat mode. My Timeform Chasers And Hurdlers will soon be arriving and that helps to welcome in the new season.Stan James closed my account a long time ago and Victor Chandler did so this season. Most others can limit my bets at times, but particularly Hills and Corals. Every bet with them goes to a trader who says yes full bet accepted, or just so much allowed, or refused entirely.
Am using Betfair more nowadays, partly out of neccessity. Partly to get used to it, ready for when more accounts are closed. Suppose it’s to be expected. Have opened a WBX account which am yet to use. Majority of bets are late the night before or Early Prices tb; but starting to play more nearer the off. None of those bets are on here, obviously. Though bets at that time go a bit against the grain. When a couple of my 1:30 bets were non-runners today, I promoted Steps from saver to a "main bet". But then at the last minute – decided to lay most of it back at shorter than I’d backed it. Went and won!
Tantshi also became a "half bet". Sorry, aftertiming. 
Value Is Everything1:55 Longchamp
37 points @ 6/1 (PP) Barley Mow* (min 6/1)
saver:
11 points @ 3.8/1 (betfair) Noozoh Canarias (min 7/2)Value Is Everything2:30 Longchamp
37 points @ 11/2 (Sky) Secret Gesture* (min 5/1)Value Is Everything2:30 Longchamp
37 points @ 11/2 (Sky) Secret Gesture* (min 5/1)28 points @ 7/1 (PP) Thistle Bird* (min 13/2)
Value Is Everything2:30 Longchamp
37 points @ 11/2 (Sky) Secret Gesture* (min 5/1)28 points @ 7/1 (PP) Thistle Bird* (min 13/2)
saver:
6 points @ 12/1 (Sky) Dalkala (min 12/1)Value Is EverythingNo need to apologize, that is the thing of tipping on here you can not exactly get up bets when you are backing something late. I had backed Tropics early yesterday and again when he drifted before the off.
My experiences of WBX is there is very little liquidity there to be honest, Betdaq would be the next best thing behind Betfair, about a 1/4 of the liquidity probably.
I do most of my betting in the time before the off these days, unless there is enough floating, for all the runners that prices close there are those that drift or don’t close enough.
I do most of my betting in the time before the off these days, unless there is enough floating, for all the runners that prices close there are those that drift or don’t close enough.
Something that worries me about betting late is paddock/course negatives. How often do you find yourself backing horses late when it subsequently transpires there were paddock/course negatives tb?
Value Is EverythingIt wouldn’t be something I factor into my betting generally to be honest.
If there is an obvious thing like the runner gets lose or something then I would act. Generally as I am not on course and don’t consider paddock inspection so I don’t worry I just stick to the the form book work I have done.
There was an interesting incident in at the Leger meeting on one of the days, there was a 30 minute delay for the last race and the in the 10 minutes preceding the actually original off time the market started to take shape, some shortened, some drifted etc and 200k or so was turned over. Of course, this was just faceless bots shaping the market that were triggered to start working and reacting at a certain time. A good example that is not always what you think going on behind the screen.
Many things can keep effecting it from there, weight of money for other horses particularly, that would have been a strong point in Tropics being easy to back.
A few bets I have had of particularly weak horses in the last couple of weeks are Hurryupharriet, Tropics and the best of them Marmalady at Bath, she went absolute walkies and won easily.
Similarly, horses I have backed early and crash often run like drains more than they go on to win!
In an ideal world I suppose we would just get on early with out fuss but, alas, it is not an ideal world!
Arc De Triomphe
35 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Novellist* (min 11/2)(£179 available)
19 points @ 16.5/1 (betfair) Al Kazeem* (min 14/1)(£44 available)Novellist non-runner.
20 points @ 10/1 (SJ) Ruler Of The World* (min 9/1)
saver:
18 points @ 4.7/1 (betfair) Treve (min 4/1)15 points @ PMU Al Kazeem
Value Is EverythingChampion Stakes
50 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Cirrus Des Aigles* (min 100/30)Value Is EverythingChampion Stakes
50 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Cirrus Des Aigles* (min 100/30)Do you think the horse can win the race on good ground? I appreciate he has run decent races on quicker ground in the past but his return to form has coincided with running on his favoured surface in a relatively weak Group 2. To my eyes the 4/1 would only represent value if the ground comes up soft. I backed Flintshire three months ago for the Arc fully aware that he hadn’t got a prayer on soft ground but he was a 16/1 chance at the time.
Champion Stakes
50 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Cirrus Des Aigles* (min 100/30)I hope you’re right ginger, I got the value at 16/1 in you Ante-post comp and am in dire need of the points.
The trainer has played a blinder in letting him find his feet throughout the season and he now looks back to his best. If he was really as bad as his early season form he would of been retired by now.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Champion Stakes
50 points @ 4/1 (Boyle) Cirrus Des Aigles* (min 100/30)Do you think the horse can win the race on good ground? I appreciate he has run decent races on quicker ground in the past but his return to form has coincided with running on his favoured surface in a relatively weak Group 2. To my eyes the 4/1 would only represent value if the ground comes up soft. I backed Flintshire three months ago for the Arc fully aware that he hadn’t got a prayer on soft ground but he was a 16/1 chance at the time.
Although
Cirrus Des Aigles
has such a good record on soft ground, his win in the 2011 Champion (one of his best performances) was on a firm surface. As you imply Stilvi, without doubt horses going needs can change, particularly if having an injury since and an action that naturally favours give (like Cirrus). However, for the moment I think it more likely he’s just taken time to get over the leg injury sustained in December.
The Arc is always a competitive race Stilvi, with many chances ante-post, so the prices are going to be higher. The Champion is only two weeks away, not three months as in Flintshire’s case. You were right, 16/1 was worth the risk, as is (imo) 4/1 or 7/2, especially with a firm surface less likely in mid to late October.
Other reasons are his market rivals. Let’s go down the betting…
Only one without issues isDeclaration Of War
, Cirrus would kill him if the French horse was at his best. I know the Ballydoyle soldier has won a couple of good races, did me a big favour at York, but hardly an above average Group 1 horse. There’s also a chance he’ll go for the mile.
The Fugue
has been making music, big fan, but I believe more likely to go straight to America. Also ground reliant, this time of year I’d rather back those who want it good or softer ante-post rather than good or firmer.
Big fan ofFarhh
too, but his last run seems far away. Would he stay if it were very soft?
Mukhadram
has been mucking about, injured since we last saw him too.
Supposedly seen the last ofAl Kazeem
, retired? Though it would not surprise me if he rocked up.
Toronado
, more likely to be hit by a tornado than seeing him turn up for this longer event. Question marks to answer now over breathing issues.
Sky Lantern
is shining bright, apparently a possible, but I get the impression connections are waiting to see if the race cuts up before commiting. Or, they have two top class colts for the QEII and want a runner in the longer race. Another arguably better on decent ground (one disappointing run at Goodwood as a two year old on a soft surface). Suspect they might go to the US of A.
Trading Leather
needs to hear his shoes rattle.
Magician
not seen since last in St James Palace, Coolmore need to pull a rabbit out of the hat if that is to win.
Ruler Of The World
doesn’t. A staying mile and a half horse who did not run to form in the Arc.
Camelot
hasn’t been seen since the days of King Arthur.
Kingsbarns
, you’d need to be a barnpot to back him after "losing his action" on only 2013 start, he lost something. Have we heard the reason for his absence?
Maputo
, map who?
Will the other Frenchies come over,Maxios
,
Triple Threat
and
Mandour
?
Hillstar
Wouldn’t be quick enough for this even if the track was downhill.
Planteur
needs to grow wings.
Then we’re in to the 100/1+ bracket.Some of the injured horses will turn up and some of the out of form horses will return to their best, but there seems more question marks about all of them than Cirrus Des Aigles.
I think the race will cut up badly Stilvi. Corine Barande Barbe has excellent prospects of once again walking on cloud nine with
Cirrus
. Won the Dollar in an outstanding time compared to the rest on the day. Showing he’s on his way back and won’t need to improve much on that to win at Ascot. Won in 2011 and second in 2012, so we know he’s effective at Ascot and this time of year. Probably won’t need to reproduce the form of those performances this time around. Much better than a 20 or 22% chance anyway.
Value Is EverythingI hope you’re right ginger, I got the value at 16/1 in you Ante-post comp and am in dire need of the points.
The trainer has played a blinder in letting him find his feet throughout the season and he now looks back to his best. If he was really as bad as his early season form he would of been retired by now.
Don’t know about "played a blinder" Nathan. Seem to remember Mmme Barbe claiming before the season started that Cirrus was better than ever. I don’t mind her taking her time to get the horse back to peak fitness, as long as punters aren not put away.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.