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I’m still not knowledgeable enough on the sport to confidently place ante-post bets. I feel I need to learn more about the size of the animals and the way certain big races are run (Guineas, Supreme NH etc.) before doing that.
You’re on the wrong thread for that Ben,Ginge knows as much about Ante-Post betting as I do ‘Percentage Crap’! There’s a thread called
‘A Different Approach’ written by an Ante-Post genius who’s suggestedTapestry
will win the 2014 1000gns!
Some of us knew you’d burn your fingers on ‘Radiator’ and ‘Rizeena’ today.
Ooh its hot in here! 
3:10 Newmarket
29 points @ 8/1 (C) Just The Judge* (min 7/1)29 points @ 7/1 (FD) Integral* (min 13/2)
Value Is EverythingIgnore TAPK Ben, he likes to shout about his ante-post winners. Give him his due, Gordie Boy’s had a fair few ante-post winners in the past. One of these days he’ll do so again.
Size is just something else to consider Ben, sometimes it can be overlooked if you think the value is still there. I backed Certify last year @ 20/1 immediately after her maiden. She was a similar type to Ihtimal though a better action (long stride for her size). Certify came in to be ante-post favourite, before the steroid scandal stopped her from running.
Ihtimal ran ok today considering the pace was against her. The two that beat her have more speed. I was expecting the Godolphin duo to make sure it was a reasonable pace.
Radiator was disappointing Ben, but it’s too early to say for sure. In a way it is best she was nowhere to be seen, at least there could be another reason other than "not good enough". As her trainer said afterwards, today was too bad to be her true running. Will have to wait for next year to see if she can live up to pedigree/maiden win.
Value Is Everything2:35 Newmarket
42 points @ 13/2 (PP) Come To Heel* (min 11/2)Saver:
21 points @ 2/1 (L) Vorda (min 2/1)Value Is Everything3:10 Newmarket
29 points @ 8/1 (C) Just The Judge* (min 7/1)29 points @ 7/1 (FD) Integral* (min 13/2)
Saver:
20 points @ 3/1 (B365) Elusive Kate (min 5/2)With Just The Judge now just 7/1, if you are yet to play in the race I’d advise backing him as the saver at 7’s with the other two as main bets.
Value Is Everything2:35 Newmarket
42 points @ 13/2 (PP) Come To Heel* (min 11/2)Saver:
21 points @ 2/1 (L) Vorda (min 2/1)6 points @ 12/1 (B365) Princess Noora (min 12/1)
3 points @ 2/1 (B365) VordaWith Red Lady coming out it might be even more slowly run, Princess Noora being the most likely to have the run of the race. Come To Heel has 5f speed and may have a speed edge in a sprint if not too far back. Vorda is (for now, imo) the best filly in the race. Kiyoshi is a good filly, but won’t want them to go to the middle of the course. Can get away with hanging in fairly run races, but probably not in a 2f sprint trying to make up ground.
Value Is EverythingArc De Triomphe
35 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Novellist* (min 11/2)(£179 available)
19 points @ 16.5/1 (betfair) Al Kazeem* (min 14/1)(£44 available)Value Is EverythingArc De Triomphe
35 points @ 5.8/1 (betfair) Novellist* (min 11/2)(£179 available)
19 points @ 16.5/1 (betfair) Al Kazeem* (min 14/1)(£44 available)It looks a good quality Arc this year. Most impressive middle-distance performance I’ve seen this season was
Novellist
‘s King George, smashing the track record. Quickening 5 lengths clear of Irish Derby winner and subsequent 1¼ length International Stakes runner up Trading Leather. Plenty of talk beforehand whether Novellist would act on the ground proved unfounded. Turned out to be his stand-out performance to date on first start on a firm surface. Now the talk is whether he’ll be equally effective on a soft surface. Not up to Ascot form last time out on good, but different tactics were employed there, front running and possibly not 100% fit in Grosser Prix Von Baden. Trainer says he left something to work on. Does not have the typical top-of-the-ground action and every reason to believe Novellist is equally effective on a soft surface and certainly stays well. Looks a value bet at current prices (around 11/2).
Treve
seems a strange name for a filly, apparently means “truce” in French. Impressive turn of foot in her trial, even in this race got shuffled back and had to come from a poor position in a less than truly run Prix Vermaille (12f). Better than winning distance suggest and will need to be, because a 1¾ length beating of Wild Coco is not good enough form to win an average renewal. That said, Treve is progressing fast with only 4 runs to her name; is obviously one to consider. Also won 10½f Prix Diane by 4 lengths from subsequent Irish Oaks winner Chicquita. Trainer, Mme Head has said Treve’s improved since the Vermaille; but also that she did not want to go for the Arc until 2014. Thinking inexperience in the hurly burly in such a race may tell against this admirable three year old filly. Jockey Frankie Dettori has just (wednesday) had a bad fall, receiving treatment for a sprained ankle.
Orfevre
has cracking form and unlucky when my money was on last year. On the face of it an impressive easy 3 length winner in Prix Foy. Flattering (in a way) with second and third favs running poorly in last and second last and Camelot a non-runner. Getting the run of the race and having very little to beat. I wouldn’t judge him too much on that easy victory. Able to race up the rail; something that may be important to his chance this term. In 2012 had a poor stall position, raced wide around the turn and wandered badly once in front, giving the race away. Despite an exceptional strike rate Orfevre has a bit of temperament. Good draw would help his cause enormously on Sunday. Obviously has a leading chance on last year’s race, but punters are always susceptible to a hard luck story and looks poor value at current prices. Deserves to win but debatable if he should be favourite, let alone 5/2 favourite.
Fellow Japanese contender
Kizuna
won the Prix Niel last time out. Japanese Derby winner beating English Derby winner
Ruler Of The World
a short head. That his first start since May and there were some paddock watchers who thought Kizuna would come on for the race. However, the second is more of a stayer and probably less suited by a relative test of speed in a slowly run race. Can not see why the two horses are not the same price for Sunday. Soft surface and (hopefully) a fast pace will suit the Irish horse. Niel third
Ocovango
only ¾ length behind, but on all known form seems exposed as just below top class. Can not see him reversing places. Fourth was Ocovango’s stable companion
Flintshire
, who’s better than that run suggests. Quite a short priced favourite and in all probability unsuited by a first run on a soft surface. Undeniably impressive earlier in Grand Prix De Paris (Group 1, 12f) and an excellent prospect for top races next year. Connections now believe him better on a sound surface and seems unlikely to take part (drifting badly in the market at the moment, 22/1 on betfair).
Another Fabre horse,
Intello
is (according to the trainer) his best chance of an 8th win. Won French Derby (unlike other Derbys only 10½f). If he stays – Intello will be a force to be reckoned with. Although by the best quality stamina influence in the World in Galileo; is out of a 7f/8f mare who was in turn both by an influence of speed, Danehill – out of another 7f/8f performer. Intello himself being effective at a mile, with a good 2 lengths 3rd to Moonlight Cloud in Group 1 Prix Jaques Le Marois. Jockey, Olivier Peslier is confident of staying, but he’s going to be confident whatever the ride; with such a good record in the race (4 wins, including 2012 on an outsider). There has in my opinion got to be a doubt whether 12f will suit, especially if soft ground puts added emphasis on stamina.
I did not think
Leading Light
would be fast enough for the St Leger let alone an Arc, he proved me wrong by 1¼ lengths; beating Epsom Oaks heroine Talent. In hindsight being pushed along in 2m Queens Vase probably more to do with lazy tendencies rather than lack of speed (for staying trips); has won in lesser company at 10f. Winner of his last 5 races, improving and come in for some good support recently. I don’t want to write him off this weekend; but unless getting an easy lead on very testing ground – again can not see Leading Light being fast enough in this grade. Surely a Derby winner should have a lot better chance of winning an Arc than a St Leger winner?
Al Kazeem
was ante-post favourite earlier in the year for this, on the back of three Group 1 victories at around 10f; Tattersalls Gold Cup (beating Camelot 1½ lengths), Prince Of Wales (by neck from Mukhadram, with 3¼ back to a below par The Fugue) and Eclipse (beating Declaration Of War 2 lengths). Since then, seemingly a little disappointing. Beaten in to 3rd by last named in International and 2nd in Irish Champion. In my opinion a load of rubbish has been talked about Al Kazeem not acting on firm ground at York, though probably not at full ability there. Stable not in such good form at the time. Do not under-estimate Irish Champion winner
The Fugue
, if turning up here on a sound surface. Race times at Leopardstown illustrated it was no worse than a true Good. Like Flintshire, The Fugue seems an unlikely starter (41/1 betfair). Al Kazeem, on the other hand goes on anything. Ran well in Ireland, finishing 2nd and turning the tables on Trading Leather, a further 2 lengths back in 3rd. However, I can not get out of my head the last time he raced at 12f, in May 2012. An impressive 4½ lengths win in the Jockey Club Stakes on soft ground (only 4yo start). Although sire Dubawi was a top class miler who failed to stay 12f when 3rd in the Derby – Al Kazeem’s dam is Kazeem, who promised at two, but only ran once afterwards. Kazeem was by stamina influence Darshaan and out of Kanz, 2nd in Yorkshire Oaks. Considering the way Al Kazeem runs and stamina laden dams side of pedigree – it would not be at all a surprise if he’s better at 12f than 10f. The current 16/1 could prove amazing value.
Value Is EverythingExcellent write up Ginge.
Personally, i have taken some of the 14.5 on offer about Intello on Betfair and added him to the mix. Price looks too big to me.
Not a huge amount of rain forecast for the area between now and the off so may not be that soft.Fabre is very bullish about the horse claiming that he is " exceptional and something out of the ordinary"
so i feel that it is worth a risk, at that price. that he will stay the 12f.Best of luck to all.
Excellent write up Ginge.
Personally, i have taken some of the 14.5 on offer about Intello on Betfair and added him to the mix. Price looks too big to me.
Not a huge amount of rain forecast for the area between now and the off so may not be that soft.Fabre is very bullish about the horse claiming that he is " exceptional and something out of the ordinary"
so i feel that it is worth a risk, at that price. that he will stay the 12f.Best of luck to all.
If they don’t get any/much rain in Paris Softie, then Intello comes far more in to the equation. In my opinion – may be not as much as sound surface specialists like The Fugue and Flintshire – more than most, Intello’s chance is reliant on ground conditions.
IF genuinely on the firm side of good – I’d estimate 14.5 to be a a very good price Softie.
IF genuinely good ground – 14.5 would still be a reasonable price (imo).
IF genuinely good-soft – 14.5 would not be big enough for me to take.
IF genuinely soft or heavy – 14.5 would look a poor price (imo). Stamina-wise, in a strongly run race it could concievably be like running Intello (a horse fully effective at 1m) at 1m6f on good-firm. If it is genuinely soft or heavy I would expect connections to pull him out in favour of Ascot.I say "genuinely" Softie, because to be honest I have little faith in the Longchamp Clerk (or whatever they call him/her). Plenty of occasions in the past they’ve said it was one thing and times tell a different story.
Value Is EverythingYeah, based on what we know so far, anything too soft would not be welcome for Intello Ginge, but hopefully it won`t be that soft, time will tell of course.
I agree that Novellist looks one to definitely have on side and i can see the value about Al Kazeem. One thing that concerns me is that AK has been pretty active this season and i hope they aren`t going to the well once too often as the cliche goes. Mind you he has shown his quality to date and the prize is well worth a tilt.
2:40 Ascot
35 points @ 9/2 (PP) Gospel Choir* (min 9/2)25 points @ 8/1 (PP) Mijhaar* (min 15/2)
Probably a saver to come
Value Is Everything
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