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I thought this would be the appropriate thread to say i couldn’t decide who to back in the 315 at Doncaster, so i backed both of them. Sovereign Debt 9/1, and Lockwood 8/1.
3:15 Doncaster
22 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Casper Netcher* (min 9/1)10 points each way @ 20/1 (B365) Red Jazz* (min 16/1)
Value Is EverythingI thought this would be the appropriate thread to say i couldn’t decide who to back in the 315 at Doncaster, so i backed both of them. Sovereign Debt 9/1, and Lockwood 8/1.
Sovereign Debt was a favourite of mine last year LW. Has a good turn of foot and has a form chance if recapturing Lockinge form. Personally I’d have to know why he was beaten last time out at 4/7 if backing him today. He’s also a hold up horse which may not suit the race today.
Saw Lockwood at Goodwood, still improving and got a dream run through in a fast run race (possibly over-strong).
Might be wrong, but there doesn’t seem much pace in this race and might suit prominent runners.
Red Jazz runs his best races at or near the front though not always ridden that way. With stable already successful today, hope prominent tactics can bring a return to form.
Viztoria can race prominently though again not always. Better than result suggests, ridden just behind a strong pace in Coronation. Return to 7f won’t be a problem.
Good luck LW.
Gregorian ran well in slowly run Hungerford, where Casper Netcher swerved at the gate and no cover pulled hard. Take that race out is outstanding value. Also, although a hold up horse has run well in slowly run races before; has turn of foot.
Value Is EverythingAch, i got done by one of yours there. Well in. The allowance and obviously conditions made all the difference.
Ach, i got done by one of yours there. Well in. The allowance and obviously conditions made all the difference.
Unfortunately LW, my "winner" will be counted as a loser on this thread. Actually only a saver anyway, having said that… I forgot had left a bet on betfair overnight, so had a "saver" with bookies this morning having already had one.
Casper Netcher ran well enough, just couldn’t get through when wanted. Running around a bit too. Fate of all good each way bets, 4th. Best of those held up.
Don’t think it was planned to race prominently with Lockwood LW. Had he not taken a keen hold early may well have won. Certainly another step up on form. You’re a bit unlucky there.
Value Is Everything3:10 Longchamp
25 points each way @ 6/1 (Sky) Camelot* (min 11/2)
5 points @ 9/1 (boyle) Mandour (min 9/1)Never thought I’d be backing this horse. Been one of his fiercest critics over the years. But it seems other punters/bookmakers have caught up and gone too far the other way. Orfevre is undoubtedly better than Camelot at their best. But despite his excellent strike rate the Japanese horse has more than his share of quirks. Threw the Arc away last year. Always like to take one like him on at short odds. Camelot himself is not straightforward, I wonder whether he’s best fresh these days and is the obvious second choice on form. Dunaden will need a truly run race to be effective at this trip. Mandour is worth a saver.
Value Is Everything2:40 Longchamp
25 points each way @ 6/1 (L) Venus De Milo* (min 11/2)Value Is Everything3:10 Longchamp
25 points each way @ 6/1 (Sky) Camelot* (min 11/2)
5 points @ 9/1 (boyle) Mandour (min 9/1)Camelot now a non-runner.
19 points each way @ 8/1 (PP) Mandour* (min 7/1)
Value Is Everythingyou,you,you i dont want to say it………
CHAAARLATAN
!!
You made me say it!And he
CHEATED
in TRF Summer tipping Comp……..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
you,you,you i dont want to say it………
CHAAARLATAN
!!
You made me say it!And he
CHEATED
in TRF Summer tipping Comp……..
Fancy no French races allowed Nathan, bloody stupid I say!
I blame the idiot who wrote the damn silly rules!
Value Is Everything1000 Guineas
20 points @ 20/1 (L) Amazing Maria* (min 15/1)Just wondering what prompted this one? Impressive enough but pretty much had the run of the race twice at Goodwood and the form has hardly been franked in the last few days.
In recent seasons the 2,000 Guineas has been a good deal more favourable for ante-post punters and at 50/1 I think Be Ready was definitely worth chancing. Having missed the price myself I did look at the Derby but predicting the possibles for that race is much more difficult and in any case it could well be that ten furlongs will be his limit.
In recent seasons the 2,000 Guineas has been a good deal more favourable for ante-post punters and at 50/1 I think Be Ready was definitely worth chancing. Having missed the price myself I did look at the Derby but predicting the possibles for that race is much more difficult and in any case it could well be that ten furlongs will be his limit.
Thanks Stilvi,
I’ve done far better over the years in the 1000 Guineas than 2000 myself.Wouldn’t back Be Ready for the Derby just yet. Like to see him get rid of a tendency to be a bit keen early – before doing so. By Derby winner New Approach (who was also 2nd in the 2000 Guineas). But Be Ready’s half sister Trending was a sprinter, admittedly by another sprinter Dark Angel. Be Ready’s dam’s sire is Gone West, a speed influence. I agree Stilvi, 10f should not be a problem, not sure about 12 at this stage. Shows a lot of speed to stay.
Value Is Everything1000 Guineas
20 points @ 20/1 (L) Amazing Maria* (min 15/1)Just wondering what prompted this one? Impressive enough but pretty much had the run of the race twice at Goodwood and the form has hardly been franked in the last few days.
I know an amazingly pretty girl called Maria, Stilvi. You gotta see her.
I was very impressed when seeing Amazing Maria win at Goodwood. Has size, so should do better on a flat track than undulating. And not the finished article, improvement to come over winter. I don’t think she was at all flattered by making all in the Prestige Stakes Stilvi. She did not set a slow pace before kicking on. It was a catch me if you can, performance. Did it without coming under serious pressure, value for more than the 2.5 lengths winning margin and yet the time was excellent. Little over 1 second slower than the record 2yo time despite "good" ground. Hopefully doesn’t "need" to lead.
Third, Halljoy was only 5.25 lengths 5th to Ihtimal at Donny, but she was beaten 5.75 lengths by Amazing Maria. If having a second bet it would be the winner there, but Ihtimal isn’t very big and (unlike AM) lacks the scope to improve at three. Prestige second, Qawaasem finished last in the same Donny race, but she just ran so badly not to be a true reflection of ability.
Amazing Maria is by Mastercraftsman, who’s made an outstanding start to his career at stud. Dam a sprinter who was 2nd on debut (gave winner too much rope) before easily winning her maiden in only two starts at two (both in July). Possibly some problem occurred, as disappointed all starts at three and never delivered on potential shown and price $700,000 (well bred). Dam’s sire Tale Of The Cat was a miler and top class sire of horses like Gio Ponte. Amazing Maria will be suited by a mile.
Had hoped to wait until nearer the Fillies Mile to get involved, but had to take the last piece of 20/1 Stilvi. Pretty sure that will be her next/final 2yo race and should run well there.
Trained by Ed Dunlop, in a way good, in a way bad. Good is that he has very few good two year olds. Most of his good horses come through the ranks at three. So if Amazing Maria can show this standard of form at two, what could she do at three? Her size points to this too. AM has also done well despite the trainer not having a great 2013, so again another pointer to better to come in 2014. Trouble is Ed is not known for getting his string ready early in the season. Just hope she makes it to Newmarket in May. But at 20/1 looks worth the risk.
Value Is Everything1000 Guineas
20 points @ 20/1 (L) Amazing Maria* (min 15/1)Just wondering what prompted this one? Impressive enough but pretty much had the run of the race twice at Goodwood and the form has hardly been franked in the last few days.
Amazing Maria
had the run of the race simply because she was too quick for the field she’s beaten Stilvi,I’d certainly like to see her in something like the Fillies Mile.What interests me about this January filly is her rate of progression,to the naked eye she ran 2 identical times over Goodwoods 7f on what was officially described as good going however on Aug 1st her time was relative to the rest of the days racing and yet the clerk of the course tells us the ground had a bit of cut in it.No way! that was proper Good ground,the clock tells us so.On Aug 24th though on officially good ground again she clocks 1m 26sec,again an excellent time for a 2yo,this time however there had been rain and it had definitely got into the ground,’Midnite angels’ performance confirms it and the rest of the card clocked times to suggest that this ‘Amazing Maria’ had actually ran an exceptional time for a 2yo.The last time I saw a 2yo win around Goodwoods 7f like that he went on to win The Derby and he clocked a slower figure!!
You have a serious filly on your hands there Ginge,she has size and scope,still a bit green too.I love the ‘Mastercraftsman’ breeding,the Dams thrown one other sibling who did nothing but she is a well bred filly and she’s certainly got a good filly in this Ogden owned one.She enjoyed bowling along at a good clip around Goodwood and I wouldn’t be worried about Newmarket not suiting.Good Luck with your Ante-Post wager,I like to see foresight,something you still need to develop.Thanks Gord,
Just remember, there may be no write up, but every bet on here is as carefully worked out and has as much (or as little) "foresight" as the rest.Value Is Everything
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