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Posts
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2:40 Doncaster
50 points @ 4/1 (WH) Biographer* (min 7/2)18 points @ 23/1 (betfair) Mutual Regard* (min 18/1)(£25 available)
Value Is Everything1:40 Doncaster
37 points @ 6/1 (Boyle) Sleeper King* (min 11/2)10 points @ 4/1 (FD) Wind Fire (min 4/1)
Value Is Everything2:40 Doncaster
50 points @ 4/1 (WH) Biographer* (min 7/2)18 points @ 23/1 (betfair) Mutual Regard* (min 18/1)(£25 available)
saver:
20 points @ 5/2 High Jinx (min 5/2)Value Is Everything3:50 Doncaster
78 points @ 15/8 (C) Be Ready* (min 13/8)Well done with this one today.
I do have a nosey at your thread from time to time and I see that you stake the shorties more heavily than the longer priced selections. For instance you only staked 10 points on Aquilonius who won for you a couple of weeks back. I accept each price bracket wins in its turn but are you not in danger of missing out on profits if you stake the big priced winners too lightly?
To quote a simple example I have a pal who might have £100 on an even money hot pot that gets beat then a fiver on a 10/1 shot that wins. Then he wonders why he is losing money at the game!
2000 Guineas
33 points @ 10/1 (L) War Command* (min 15/2)Bet above to go with this one.
Get on Be Ready quick, the 50/1 won’t last the hour.
My price to beat would be around 16/1.
Value Is EverythingJust to put my 2000 Gyineas bets in one post…
2000 Guineas
33 points @ 10/1 (L) War Command* (min 15/2)Get on Be Ready quick, the 50/1 won’t last the hour.
My price to beat would be around 16/1.2000 Guineas
26 points @ 50/1 (B365) Be Ready* min 20/1Value Is Everything3:50 Doncaster
78 points @ 15/8 (C) Be Ready* (min 13/8)Well done with this one today.
I do have a nosey at your thread from time to time and I see that you stake the shorties more heavily than the longer priced selections. For instance you only staked 10 points on Aquilonius who won for you a couple of weeks back. I accept each price bracket wins in its turn but are you not in danger of missing out on profits if you stake the big priced winners too lightly?
To quote a simple example I have a pal who might have £100 on an even money hot pot that gets beat then a fiver on a 10/1 shot that wins. Then he wonders why he is losing money at the game!
To an extent Oasis, I think you are right it’s not quite right, but not far out.
Unlike your friend the way I bet does win a lot more on the outsiders than shorties. Your pal is going a mile too far the other way. Winning half you would on a main bet 10/1 as you would @ Evens is just wrong. If both wagers are "main bets" I’d want to win at least 2 1/2 times if not 3 or 4 on the 10/1 as I would the Evens. More than 2 1/2 if it were 40/1+
eg. If I thought a horse has around a
If I thought a horse had around a
So despite the gap between 55 and 50 (
Aquilonius was in a race I’d already had two "main bets", had it been one of just two main bets it would’ve been a bit more than 10, but only a bit (14). Still won 448 points, 3, 4 or 5+ times the amount of what a shortie (Evens to 2/1) normally wins for me.Sometimes bookmakers make a rick Oasis (like imo Be Ready) and stake reflects that. In my opinion punters often try and win too much on outsiders, some possibly because they know it is their best chance of making a profit. ie One big win syndrome. But that I know is not what you are advocating Oasis.
As I suspect you know, my staking plan takes in to account how much chance (I believe) the horse has of winning + how much value (I believe) is in the bet. So the 13% chance gets 13 points for "chance" and then the value part, "chance" minus price available percentage and then times that figure by 5 and add to "chance". But I am thinking it is not quite right yet…
So am seriously considering upping the amount I times the "value" by from 5 to 6 or 7. This, although increasing all stakes/winnings… will increase the amount won by outsiders more than shorties. However Oasis, back end flat season is not the time for upping stakes, so will wait for the jumps.
Value Is EverythingSt Leger
33 points @ 6/1 (L) Libertarian* (min 11/2)37 points @ 6/1 (WH) Foundry* (min 11/2)
Saver:
16 points @ 4.8/1 (betfair) Excess Knowledge (min 4/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Doncaster
22 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Casper Netcher* (min 9/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Doncaster
22 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Casper Netcher* (min 9/1)14 points @ 9/2 (FD) Viztoria (min 9/2)
15 points @ 4/1 (FD) Gregorian (min 4/1)Value Is Everything3:15 Doncaster
22 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Casper Netcher* (min 9/1)14 points @ 9/2 (FD) Viztoria (min 9/2)
15 points @ 4/1 (FD) Gregorian (min 4/1)By the time I put these two bets up the prices had gone, so scrap Viztoria and Gregorian.
Value Is Everything3:15 Doncaster
22 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Casper Netcher* (min 9/1)14 points @ 9/2 (FD) Viztoria (min 9/2)
15 points @ 4/1 (FD) Gregorian (min 4/1)By the time I put these two bets up the prices had gone, so scrap Viztoria and Gregorian.
You B*stard! I’m your greatest follower and back everything you suggest at the prices,except I put ‘real’ money on them not Pretend Points and now you are telling me to scrap the above 2 bets!!
Do you intentionally mislead your army of fans? Are you on the Bookies Pay line? I can just see Tom Segal doing that…..Not!
You are typical of the Racing fraternity,keeping it all to yourself and trying to sell the rest of us down the river,I reckon your success is going to your head,Oooh you make me so angry I can see I’m going to have to teach you a lesson in Credibility,you,you,you i dont want to say it………CHAAARLATAN
!!
You made me say it!Never that keen on The Charlatans personally, always thought they were a sort of dumbed down Oasis, and as i think Oasis are pretty terrible anyway, that might explain it.
Vera Lynn anyone? Oops,sorry your Dameship!!
3:15 Doncaster
22 points each way @ 14/1 (PP) Casper Netcher* (min 9/1)
14 points @ 9/2 (FD) Viztoria (min 9/2)
15 points @ 4/1 (FD) Gregorian (min 4/1)By the time I put these two bets up the prices had gone, so scrap Viztoria and Gregorian.
You B*stard! I’m your greatest follower and back everything you suggest at the prices,except I put ‘real’ money on them not Pretend Points and now you are telling me to scrap the above 2 bets!!
Do you intentionally mislead your army of fans? Are you on the Bookies Pay line? I can just see Tom Segal doing that…..Not!
You are typical of the Racing fraternity,keeping it all to yourself and trying to sell the rest of us down the river,I reckon your success is going to your head,Oooh you make me so angry I can see I’m going to have to teach you a lesson in Credibility,you,you,you i dont want to say it………CHAAARLATAN
!!
You made me say it!Oh gord!
I had those Viztoria and Gregorian bets myself this morning and then put the bets up on this thread at 9:18AM. (That TRF clock annoys me). However, as usual – immediately after writing – I checked on oddschecker. Unfortunately, between me taking 9/2 and 4/1 and me posting the bets – the prices hadgone
. It would obviously be
unfair
of me to advise my follower to take prices that
no longer
exist. ie He has
no
chance of taking the price advised. And (as my
minimum
price indicates) the horses are
not now
(imo) "value" – there is no other option but for me to cancel those two bets from this thread.
I know you often quote prices which are no longer available Gordie Boy, but I do not. It is not me who’s the "charlatan".
Value Is EverythingVery open St Leger.
Why Joseph has chosenLeading Light
is beyond me. Winner of 2 mile Queens Vase at Royal Ascot. Not going as well as handicapper Royal Skies three out before that one failed to stay, and only outstayed Feels Like Dancing close home. Latter would’ve been a second string for Gosden here. Leading Light now comes back in trip. Too slow and best form so far on quicker ground.
Before jockey bookings the two Ballydoyle horses were the same price. Fact
Foundry
is the stable neglected and Ladbrokes are fielding against him (Mike Dillon has an ear to Coolmore) – is a bit of a negative. But Ryan Moore has a good record when booked for a classic by this team. With only two races to his name and already not far off the best middle-distance/staying three year olds. Impressive on very soft ground only start as a juvenile. 1¼ lengths 2nd to Telescope in Voltigeur only three year old start on a sounder surface. If Sir Michael’s horse had gone for this he’d be favourite. Not absolutely certain to stay on the dam’s side of pedigree, but by Galileo and staying on at York. 7/1 is too big to ignore.
Galileo Rock
is thought by his trainer better on firmer ground. True it was firm at the Curragh (2nd in Irish Derby) but there is not much between that run and 3rd at Epsom where if anything on the soft side. Has a rounded action too which should be suited by give underfoot and won maiden by 7 lengths on soft. Half-brother to Saddlers Rock and sure to stay, has the best form in the book. Everything sounds great for his chance today, not surprised he’s favourite but there are a lot of improvers just behind Galileo Rock. Would not be surprised to see him placed in another Classic.
Excess Knowledge
was named after TAPK. Should have won the Gordon Stakes; muddling pace, got behind, rider dropped reigns. Trainer has a great record in the race. Bred to get the trip, dam stayed well and from a stamina family. Excess Knowledge is half-brother to 1½m winner who was by a stallion with a shorter stamina index. German sire Monsun a staying influence and possibly more importantly today most of his stock seem to like soft ground. Excess Knowledge has no form on a soft surface. Improving at 1½m and should step up a lot for this trip, so 5/1 looks generous.
Talent
may have been a little flattered in the Oaks. Dropped out in a strongly run race. That said, she did win a Classic looking as though stamina is her strong-suit. Going away at the line. Appeared not to act on firmer ground in the Irish version, also took a keen hold. Will need to settle better but sometimes horses don’t travel. So that run well worth discounting. Stable could be in better form. Certainly one with a chance and positive market move a good sign, though not one for me.
Another who ran an awful race in Ireland is
Libertarian
. I’d already backed him @ 6/1 for the Leger after Epsom. Stayed on really well to be 2nd in an average Derby. Curragh a lot firmer and hasn’t the action for it. Like to forgive him for that, could come back to form on this surface. However, stable are talking down his chances, apparently showed nothing at home for a new stable, Charlie Appleby. Ex-trainer says that’s just how Libertarian is. But am I wrong? Seem to remember Burke saying Libertarian was entered in the Dante because of home work. Libertarian did shout Leger after Epsom and there could still be more improvement; but if I was not already on he’d only be a saver bet, and that’s @ 8/1.
Can’t really see any of the others as value outsiders/figuring.
Cap Orushes
did beat Excess Knowledge but had the run of the race there. Highly unlikely to confirm the form unless it’s slowly run. Can’t think Ballydoyle will allow that as Leading Light would have no chance at all under those conditions. Ran poorly last time at York. Team Godolphin seem keener on him than Libertarian. To me, there’s nothing in the way he races that suggests will improve significantly at this trip.
Godolphin’s third string has his supporters today. However,
Secret Number
has already outstayed his breeding. Doubtful stayer, by 8-10 furlong horse Raven’s Pass from a female speed family. If he can’t beat the lightly raced Foundry in the Voltigeur (½ length behind) can’t see Secret Number doing so over this trip.
I’ll be walking over
Great Hall
(footpath) in my village later. Be unkind to say Great Hall needs a walk over to win here. Still has potential to improve and proven at this trip if not ground. Needs to find a lot on handicap form to figure here.
Havana Gold
is better than last of 7 in Gordon Stakes suggests, but beaten in worse races than this and more exposed than most.
Forget
Ralston Road
, will do well to avoid last position.
Conclusion:
I’ve backed and have got Libertarian ante-post on this thread. But if you have not backed anything yet… My advice now is to backFoundry
and
Excess Knowledge
as main bets with a saver on
Libertarian
.
Value Is Everything
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