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I think there are 3 points to consider.
1st I don’t agree Coolmore are big on risks they usually play the safe option. I remember a similar discussion re. Rock of Gibraltor, Classic or Mile. With absolutely nothing to lose they still went for the Mile.
2nd factor to consider and one which I think will determine the entries is the strong hand (numbers wise) Coolmore has this year. They don’t like to run their best horses against each other which could mean a horse that may not have the Classic as its first choice, could end up running in the big one.
The other factor to consider is the fact the fav for the Classic is owned by owned by Coolmore’s biggest rival so they will be desperate to run anything they think has a chance of winning.
(Edited by jonny1ph at 10:16 pm on Oct. 9, 2006)
I’d be delighted if he ran.
So what if George wins the BC Mile? What would it do to his stud fee? Almost nothing. Rock of Gibraltar almost won the Mile, yet his fee stands at €45,000. What if George wins the BC Classic? What would it do to his stud fee? Almost everything.
Galileo ran in the BC Classic and came 6th, without previous experience. It has not exactly stopped his stud career, and his fee is a rising one.
Giant’s Causeway ran in the Classic without previous experience, and arguably should have won. It has done nothing but widen his options, with his fee at $300,000 at the moment, with success in both the States and the UK. And Ballydoyle weren’t exactly put off by a lack of dirt experience with Johannesburg.
George is a half-brother to Grandera, both being out of Bordighera. Grandera won a Group 2 on the dirt (the same race Electrocutionist won this year), 4th in the World Cup (behind Moon Ballad, Nayef and Harlan’s Holiday) and 3rd in a Group 3. There is some solid dirt form there.
However, this year’s Classic is looking like a stormer. Bernardini looks unbeatable as things stand. He beat Bluegrass Cat, himself a 6/7L Grade 1 winner, by 7/8L. Discreet Cat probably won’t run since he is also a Sheikh Mohammed horse. There’s also Invasor, David Junior, etc
It would be a gamble, but since Ballydoyle-Coolmore are a business partnership, then surely you have to speculate to accumulate?
I think the Classic would be a mistake – and, in a way, a cop-out.  A loss in the Classic could be much more easily excused without damaging his reputation than a bad performance in the Mile.  If they went for the Classic I would suspect it would be through lack of confidence for the Mile.
A Mile victory would make a difference to his fee – showing an unexpected resilience and stability of temperament to cope with the circus of the Breeders’ Cup would be an important enhancement to his reputation.  This was never an issue with ROG, who showed a high level of consistency and durability throughout his career. ÂÂÂ
A victory in the Classic would obviously make him more valuable – but so would a win in the Dubai World Cup and the Eurovision Song Contest, and he ain’t going to win those either.
In answer to the Danehill on dirt query, the stats (sorry, stat haters) are as follows:
(Northern Hemisphere only)<br>Turf – 1145 runners, 777 winners (67%).  Blacktype winners 170 (15%).<br>Dirt – 453 runners, 129 winners (28%). Blacktype winners 2 (0.5%).
If they went for the Classic I would suspect it would be through lack of confidence for the Mile.
While I agree with most of what your saying Sal, this notion that Coolmore/Ballydoyle will duck a challenge or protect George W has been disproved time and time again this year. People said he would not be seen again after the Guineas…we did….people said he would not run again after the Irish defeat….he did….people said after the Celebration Mile that will be the end of him….he then came out a ran a 130 performance.
Coolmore have no reason to be "afraid" of anything in the mile and they have never had anything but confidence in the horse so I do not see why it should suddenly change now. It is simply a commerical decision.<br>
Picking up on the points made about George not staying, did anyone saw the analysis on the BBC (surprising I know) of the guineas? They showed that in the guineas George didn’t actually accelerate he just maintained his galloping speed longer than anything else. The notion of a turn of foot in a mile race is a bit of a misnoma (any speed rating people verify this?) as George just maintained his gallop longer than any other horse. So over a mile George has the ability to maintain a fast gallop (he is obviously naturally quick anyway) over a longer period. My concern would not be whether he would stay, it would be more whether he would settle. If there was enough pace you would think that he could.
I think he’d have a real chance and you’d get a good price about him as the Americans will lump on Bernadini.. It will be almost ironic if in GW’s last two races he goes off reasonable odds against.. I’ll be backing him in whatever race he runs in. Judging by the QEII he was just a big kid before.
I think George is an absolute cert for the breeders Cup mile and has a very good chance in the Classic, they just need to keep him switched off. I think its something very good for horse racing that they are trying for it rather than just taking the easy option. I’d be happy to back george at 5/1 to turn over the yanks, at the end of the day there is nothing certain to win the classic and george stands out as an exceptional miler (arguably a sprinter/miler) who just maybe might step up to 1m2f, which will surely enhance his stud potential as he will have shown serious ability at a mile and both sides of a mile, with varying underfoot conditions. I just hope they keep him in training at 4, even though they will probably be losing money in doing so.
"I just hope they keep him in training at 4, even though they will probably be losing money in doing so."
You’d need a miracle for that I think, unfortunately.  If he wins he will stay in the States, if not he’ll head back to Ireland, but in both cases only in a stallion capacity.
If he could win the Classic, it would be an enormous boost to Coolmore’s operation, both in America and over here – raising the US profile of all sons of Danehill would be very useful to them indeed.  But it is a very big gamble – to give up a very good chance of success in the Mile (the title World Champion miler and all doubters answered) for an extremely unrealistic shot at the big money. ÂÂÂ
I applaud them if they choose not to play safe, but I don’t think it is in the best interests of the horse.
i’m still of the opinion that a win in the breeders cup mile adds very little to GW’s prestige and stud value as he has already beaten the best all aged milers in the world aswell as being a handsome guineas winner. It would probably be his last race and win, lose or draw commercially the difference would be slim.
However a run in the classic at worst leaves his stud value unalterred but at best greatly improved. Commercially it is the way forward IMO.
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"he has already beaten the best all aged milers in the world"
But he hasn’t.  He’s beaten Court Masterpiece, Librettist, Proclamation, Soviet Song and Rob Roy (and some of them were nowhere near their best form).  He hasn’t beaten any challengers from abroad. He hasn’t beaten Aragorn, The Tin Man, Ad Valorem, Gorella or Becrux. He hasn’t even beaten Caradak, Peeress or Manduro.
At the moment he has two good mature performances to recommend him – only one against older horses – and plenty of question marks about his fragility (both physical and mental).  A loss in the Classic will only highlight those unanswered questions. ÂÂÂ
However, I appreciate that if he fails in the Mile then his value will fall more than if he fails in the Classic, which is why I think their consideration of the Classic might reflect a basic lack of confidence in him winning anything.
sal your clutching at straws now the ones you have mentioned would not stand at chance against gw on his day, and what makes you think the others you mentioned where not at there best in the qe11
I was referring to Soviet Song (and Rob Roy, although he was never very good) at Goodwood as not running up to her best form, not the QE2.  Some may argue that Librettist didn’t run up to his French performances either, but that opens up another can of worms!
George Washington hasn’t proven himself against the horses I mentioned.  He hasn’t even proved that as a 3yo he can string together two decent performances, that he can cope with the bright lights, that he is actually a proper racehorse.  You say the American-raced horses do not stand a chance against him ‘on his day’.  Proper racehorses don’t just win when it’s ‘their day’.  They put in consistently brilliant performances against all-comers – and George Washington has not done that.
That’s why he needs to win the Mile.
Quote: from Sal on 5:07 pm on Oct. 10, 2006[br]"he has already beaten the best all aged milers in the world"
But he hasn’t. He’s beaten Court Masterpiece, Librettist, Proclamation, Soviet Song and Rob Roy (and some of them were nowhere near their best form). He hasn’t beaten any challengers from abroad. He hasn’t beaten Aragorn, The Tin Man, Ad Valorem, Gorella or Becrux. He hasn’t even beaten Caradak, Peeress or Manduro.
At the moment he has two good mature performances to recommend him – only one against older horses – and plenty of question marks about his fragility (both physical and mental). A loss in the Classic will only highlight those unanswered questions.
However, I appreciate that if he fails in the Mile then his value will fall more than if he fails in the Classic, which is why I think their consideration of the Classic might reflect a basic lack of confidence in him winning anything.<br>
Aragorn aside, I dont think there is any reason to suggest he has anything to fear from those other horses you mention.
Ass for physical vunerability…he picks up one tweak from absolutely dreadful ground in Ireland that puts him out for a few months and suddenly he is physcially soft. Remember the horse had an extensive two year old career and has stood up to a difficult enough regime. If you think he is soft, god knows what we can say SP, hala bek etc
As for the mental fragility…not enough to stop him from winning which is all that counts. Seems to me that with age, he is growing up anyway but anyway apart from the odd tendency to lug which is just down to this greeness, he doesnt seem to mind winning.. ITs odd that people seem to talk about him as if he is another Rakti. He is clearly not.
SHL
Whilst George Washington may not have lost a race he should have won because of his temperament, I think it is erroneous to suggest his temperament hasn’t affected his performance. He’s twice hung across the track, in the National Stakes at the Curragh and the Newmarket Guineas whilst his head carriage at Goodwood suggested he wasn’t putting it all in.
I’m not suggesting George is physically soft. I’m saying he has not proved himself to have the resilience and consistency of a true champion.
He’s far from a Giant’s Causeway or Rock of Gibraltar – yet.
He’s twice hung across the track, in the National Stakes at the Curragh and the Newmarket Guineas whilst his head carriage at Goodwood suggested he wasn’t putting it all in.
Agree and this could be pretty difficult to overcome on a tight track.
Trackside….Goodwood doesnt suit all of course, but it could be that the same reasons it didnt suit GW would apply at CD
hes no rakti perhaps but Ascot was anice quiet day with a relaxed crowd…
hope he wins though…whichever race :)
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