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A poor judgement of pace by the rest but credit to Fortune for leading them a merry dance. And good to see Lucarno get another win to his name.
The pace was desperate inthe previous race too, Ramona Chase was going like it was a 7 furlong race, and plenty appeared to be going with him.
A complete joke. Jockeys really are thickest species going.
Yep they are. They might as well have all stayed in the stables and given Lucarno a walkover.
I agree it seemed a race too for for Anna Pavlova.
I’m not normally one to lay into jockeys for the way they ride races – after all I probably could not do any better myself – however I can’t help thinking if Ryan Moore had made his run on Papal Bull sooner the result may have been different.
All credit, however, to Jimmy Fortune – a very good tactical ride from him.
I hardly think Lucarno is an undeserved winner. He was possibly the best horse in the field, the leger he won last year was a pretty good renewal IMO.
I dont really think there was that much negative about him going into today, he was beaten easily over 1m2f on reappearance (way short of his best) and ran 6th at st cloud behind horses who were better than his opposition today.
He was well fancied today and won it tactically. The other jockeys did make it easy for him, but it isnt the shock of the century that hes won IMO.
It’s a race I couldn’t go near now. Wouldn’t have a clue where the pace is going to come from and Papal Bull needs a truly-run race. Time of first race suggests it’s not as soft as the official either which means it may not be enough of a test for Anna Pavlova. I think Lion Sands needs further in this grade. Difficult to know what to expect from Godolphin and think you’ll need everything to be below it’s best for Lucarno to give weight all round.
Just noticed an official going change to good to soft.
This morning I thought there was enough pace in this race. It was not until you pointed out the pace angle David that it got me thinking.
9/1 winner.
Thanks mate, owe you one.
After Classic Blade, turned out a very good day.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHang on guys,
Anna Pavlova is always held up, possibly a slight criticism for Moriarty not getting enough cover early.
Papal Bull is always held up, idles badly in front, may be Ryan would’ve liked to go a bit earlier but his way was blocked.
Petara Bay is usually held up but did (if I remember right) run more prominently in Spanish Moon’s race at Ascot. So might have been expected to be nearer the pace. An outsider anyway.
Lion Sands (again if I remember right) ran fairly prominently in one or two races last year. But has usually been held up or tracks pace.
Sagara is always held up or tracks pace and is temperamental sort you don’t want to try anything differently with.
Lucarno almost always races prominently and often leads.Ran poorly on soft ground on his reappearance where may have been unfit. Ran in France last time pulling too hard just behind the pace. The going today turned out very similar to when winning the Voltigeur last year.
So is not the way the race took shape entirely predictable?
O.K. it was a bit of a surprise they let him go so far in front. However, when all the others are usually hold up horses this can often happen.
Mark
Value Is EverythingPapal Bull is always held up, idles badly in front, may be Ryan would’ve liked to go a bit earlier but his way was blocked.
He was blocked 2 1/2 out and had time to recover. Moore has reportedly said he feels he should have got him going 50 yards sooner – and I certainly agree with that.
Connections have every right to feel aggreived IMO.
Bad ride from moore,he only had to stay 3 lengths behind the winner & he would of won easily!
Don’t forget Papal Bull needs cover. Ryan did the right thing covering it up. He was stopped in his run, then (as PB always does) took time to quicken. The horse is a difficult ride.
Yes, he was "unlucky" but that was very possible beforehand.
Mark
Value Is EverythingThe continuous slating of Ryan Moore is a serious case of deja vu.
A once popular rookie who later comes in for an unprecedented amount of criticism.
Frankie Dettori, Jamie Spencer…and so on. I hope William Buick is prepared.
It’s a race I couldn’t go near now. Wouldn’t have a clue where the pace is going to come from and Papal Bull needs a truly-run race. Time of first race suggests it’s not as soft as the official either which means it may not be enough of a test for Anna Pavlova. I think Lion Sands needs further in this grade. Difficult to know what to expect from Godolphin and think you’ll need everything to be below it’s best for Lucarno to give weight all round.
Just noticed an official going change to good to soft.
This morning I thought there was enough pace in this race. It was not until you pointed out the pace angle David that it got me thinking.
9/1 winner.
Thanks mate, owe you one.
After Classic Blade, turned out a very good day.
Mark
Congatulations, you win the aftertimer of the day award. Are you now going to ask how much everybody’s won and lost today?
Can’t say a word right as far as you are concerned mate can I Carvills. Every time, you have to go through what I say with a fine tooth combe. Trying to find something you can criticise.
I was only trying to thank David, without whom I may not have backed a 9/1 winner. And if you look back at this thread I did say Lucarno was now the likliest pace setter.
Therefore isn’t it probable I’d back Lucarno, particularly when 9/1 was available?
Had told everyone about what an outstanding bet Classic Blade was earlier in the day.
If you want to see my tips Carvills, can give you the name of a site where I give them. None of which are aftertimed.
When other TRF members have a good day I am happy for them, even if I have had a poor day myself.
So lighten up mate.
Value Is EverythingYour two pre-race comments were that Lucarno "seems best on firmer"
And you really nailed your colours to the mast with:Very good point about the pace angle David. I would expect either Lucarno or possibly the outsider Petara Bay to go on, but they are by no means certain to do so.
MarkIf I want people telling me what they backed afterwards I’ll visit the Betfair forum and thanks, but I’ll pass on the tips.
Your two pre-race comments were that Lucarno "seems best on firmer"
And you really nailed your colours to the mast with:Very good point about the pace angle David. I would expect either Lucarno or possibly the outsider Petara Bay to go on, but they are by no means certain to do so.
MarkIf I want people telling me what they backed afterwards I’ll visit the Betfair forum and thanks, but I’ll pass on the tips.
At 12:55 (the time of that first post) the going was officially soft.
Lucarno’s only run on soft was a disappointing run on reappearance at Sandown. So unless he was unfit (possible) we can say he is probably unsuited by soft going.
Judging by the times of the first two races the going was nowhere near soft and the official going was changed to good-soft. I’d say on times it was on the good side of good-soft.
Lucarno had won the Voltigeur on good-soft (good-soft is firmer than soft) so there was every reason to think Lucarno could run to form.
After David pointed out to us the lack of pace in the race, I looked again.
Lucarno I considered the most likely pace setter but was not certain to lead as he is a horse who either leads, races prominently or tracks the pace. Which is why I said he is not certain to do so.
Had he been a favourite I would not have backed him, would not have been worth the risk. But at 9/1, with the probability (or at least large possibility) of a soft lead out in front. I considered his chance a lot better than 10% 9/1. A good bet.The reason for my post was to thank David. Sorry if you thought of it as aftertiming Carvills. Are you saying I should not thank people in future for helping me back a winner?
If someone tipped a horse on TRF and you backed it and won a considerable sum by doing so, wouldn’t you thank them? Well that is how I felt. Without David’s comment I would not have backed the horse.
Hope that explains things Carvills.
Mark
Value Is Everything
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