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Big races, big horses, big riders (Sam Twiston-Davies and Danny Mullins are coming over).
This Thursday is the first day of what would have been the Belmont Park meet, except this year Belmont is undergoing renovation so its dates have been moved to Aqueduct (“Belmont at the Big A”). The two stakes races being run on Thursday are the first jumps races at Aqueduct since 1974 – that is, when the old steeplechase course got removed (the removal of permanent jumps courses from major racetracks in the 70s led to the standardization of portable hurdles for all the old steeplechases and is why our Grand National is so very un-Grand National-like). So nobody is quite sure how the track will play. It’s smaller than Belmont, around the same size as Saratoga, and the Lonesome Glory distance is being brought back from 2 5/8 to 2 1/2.
I am making this thread about both the G1 and the novice, because the National Steeplechase Association’s rules allow the reigning Eclipse Champion Steeplechase Horse with 3 G1 wins to her name to run as a “novice”. Horses here get two years of novice eligibility; because The Mean Queen won her first race over fences after March 1, 2021, she can run in the Entenmann and dodge Snap Decision. This is an understandable move by her trainer Keri Brion – The Queen is making her long-delayed first start of the year, and since the Entenmann is a fixed-weight (150 + 3lbs for every non-maiden/claimer/starter win) she gets a much better weight spread than she would in the Lonesome Glory. Her trainer has promised that she will face Snap Decision at Far Hills next month. The novice rules were instituted when the division was much smaller, but now we have novice horses coming out our ears (about half of them are trained by Keri Brion) so hopefully the rules will be adjusted to match NH novice rules, or at least bar horses who have previously won G1s against top company.
Anyway, a quick rundown of the fields for both races. The Entenmann is the first race going off at 1pm ET (6pm GMT), the Lonesome Glory a half hour later. Should be broadcast by NYRA’s youtube page https://www.youtube.com/c/thenyra, the NSA website and probably ATR.
The Entenmann
The Mean Queen – had an incredible season last year, then got some sort of injury and has been training up to the fall races. Owners big plan is Cheltenham this year – Keri has said that the Queen has nothing left to prove here and that she isn’t as interested in these races as in the prizes abroad this winter/spring. Carries 158lb hw but is giving at most 9lbs to the field so should be easy pickings. Last year’s jockey Richard Condon is back in Ireland so young phenom Parker Hendriks gets the mount. Is much too good for this field.
Proven Innocent – similar background to Snap Decision, a regally-bred flat horse with some ability on the flat who has blossomed over fences. Also trained by Jack Fisher. Won a strong allowance at Saratoga two weeks ago, is only 4 so still improving and jockey Jamie Bargary has been on a hot streak. Very live shot.
Booby Trap – finished 2nd in this race last year (should not be here!) but poor finish in his only 2022 start back in May. Does get Twiston-Davies.
Going Country – best of the rest behind Snap Decision’s Jonathan Sheppard victory, has Mullins up again. Running to his last performance should get him in the money
Bandua – big gray graded stakes winner on the flat failed as favorite behind Proven Innocent in last start. May prefer shorter than 2 3/8.
Howyabud – Keri Brion Irish import who won the Kiser Novice stakes at Saratoga. Worthy 2nd choice in betting.
State of Affair – another impressive Saratoga first-level-allowance winner, but inconsistent.And the Lonesome Glory:
Snap Decision – his spectacular Jonathan Sheppard win did something nearly impossible – get US turfwriters to actually mention anything about jumps racing at all. Carries even more weight now, 168lbs, giving 18 to 28lbs to a good field. Will be odds on but seems very beatable in this spot (again, The Mean Queen should be running against him here).
Iranistan – only horse besides the Mean Queen to defeat Snap Decision in the past three years and carries a mere
148lbs. Bled in his last race and is off Lasix again but trainer claims it was uncharacteristic of him.
Belfast Banter – 4th in the Sheppard, will need improvement.
Noah and the Ark – MIA since spring of 2021, decent form abroad but that’s a long way back now.
Ask Paddington – Comes off 4 straight wins but first time start for a European horse is always a question. Has been working with The Mean Queen and with flat horses to try and sharpen his speed. Mullins rides.
Song for Someone – was a nervous wreck before the post and finished a distant 5th in the Sheppard, has back class from the UK but will need to chill.
Redicean – 3rd in the Sheppard, is pretty much always mid-pack in these things but has Twiston-Davies aboard.
Amschel – has spent his American career looking at Snap Decision’s rear endFree past performances courtesy @USASteeplechase
https://twitter.com/USASteeplechase/status/1569640265127690240
https://twitter.com/USASteeplechase/status/1569638694264492032Bandua scratches from the novice, no other changes. Seen some handicappers betting against The Mean Queen, more money going to Going Country and Howyabud. Could be a 1-2-3 finish for Keri Brion.
TMQ goes off 1/5, runs her race but gets caught in the final strides by Proven Innocent. Definite fitness difference showing there. Perfect ride by Jamie Bargary on an exciting 4yo.
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