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Disappointed with the run of Helium there – seemed to go off too fast IMO though maybe i’m being overly critical.
Hebridean travelled very well and as a Zaynar backer at a big price I’d be more concerned about Hebridean than the likes of Starluck.
Gaz,
Your earlier posting about Saticon well justified by events today, but both he and Trenchant are going to be a lot higher in the weights now – I reckon Saticon could go up 10lbs to 137 – so their chances in the Fred Winter have been reduced accordingly.
Given the way Messrs King and Nicholls have campaigned horses this week, it seems they don’t want to win this race!
I agree, Alan.
I personally think that Mr King will be suprised, but pleasantly suprised by the run of Trenchant today, which will now mean that in a way his hands are tied. He will have to go for the Triumph now.
I would agree with his post-race comments, in regards to Walkon holding a better chance for the Triumph than Trenchant.
I also still think, despite the hike in the weights, that Saticon will still run in the Fred Winter.
Disappointed with the run of Helium there – seemed to go off too fast IMO though maybe i’m being overly critical.
Hebridean travelled very well and as a Zaynar backer at a big price I’d be more concerned about Hebridean than the likes of Starluck.
Helium ran a great race there I thought, Backed Hebridean ages ago and IMO it’s pretty much a ripped up slip unless the ground at cheltenham comes up good. I’d make hebriean favorite for Aintree now though, with starluck not far behind.
I did say before today that I thought Helium would be more of a horse for cheltenham than today, and I still think that, if its good to soft and helium doesnt try to make all I think he could go well.
Was impressed with the run from Saticon today, but hard to know what to do with him now, I’d be inclined to say step him up in trip on good ground and he may be in his element, doesnt look to have the speed to deal with the best in this grade on good ground, could be one for the mersey novice hurdle where king sent franchoek last season. There is the possibility that hes been lacking competetion pace in his races and that may have been what brought about the improvement today, so perhaps if he gets ground on the better side of good-sft and a decent pace he may have everything right. The jurys out regarding him. Think he’ll definitely be too high in the Fred Winter now to have any chance though.
Wasn’t all that impressed with Trenchant, when you bear in mind that it was good ground, his only serious opponent was alfie flits. Alfie Flits was taken along too quickly by trying to challenge Alarazi for the lead but was still only beaten by 3 lengths at the death, Trenchant is a good ground horse who was in the right place to capitalise on the fast pace. I would expect that the form of the dovecote will work out through Ainama, who ran a stormer on good ground bearing in mind how impressive he was on soft, and coupled with the fact that he probably wasnt tuned for a peak today, he must now go to the Supreme Novice with an awesome chance, and the decision to move him out and bring in Torphichen has just made Ainama a value choice for cheltenham and Torphichen a ridiculous price.
See my post on the main forum for details of revised handicap marks affecting this race.
It is on the front page of Paul Nicholls’ website that Hebridean will miss Cheltenham, and head for Aintree.
Weights are published – Alexander Severus has been put on 134, 20lbs higher than his Irish mark. Stand by for the complaints!
Thats not too bad based on his last performance AP, but probably about 5lbs harsh, regarding his relative finishing position, but hopefully it makes them think about the triumph, the key to the horse is a strong pace, and that is by no means guaranteed. If the pace was strong enough in the fred winter I would think he could be up to winning off 134, but its unlikely.
Judging by the generous prices the bookmakers are offering if Alexander Severus was running off his Irish mark he would be around 8/11.
I see Paul Nicholl’s has finally talked Nictory Vote into a single figure price. Not sure what to make of his victory last time. I have a feeling Ronaldo Des Mottes didn’t show his best and if anything the real eyecatcher was the 150/1 third who rallied to finish best of all. I wouldn’t read too much into the subsequent victory of the fourth as he was never seriously in contention. Probably a useful soft ground chaser in the making I would not be surprised to see Nictory Vote being outpaced at Cheltenham. He will definitely need a slicker round of jumping to stay in contention. With many of those heading the handicap unlikely to run this event is also clouded by a potential weight rise of around 10lbs.
A race I have left alone so far. Looks as if the favourite will be very hard to keep out of the four. Not so sure he is as difficult a ride as has looked the case on his last two starts. I like Silk Affair’s attitude but she has been the weakest of the market leaders (currently 16/1) presumably because she is expected to be too far back by the time she starts staying on up the hill. She probably needs plenty of rain to slow the others down.
I reckon Alexander Severus will be very easy to beat if the pace is slow, as he has proven himself in ireland, I perosnally thought they would be best to go for the triumph on that basis, but it a lot of the pace from the triumph is going to the fred winter now, and it is becoming hard to guess what the likely race conditions will be in both races. I think Helium is now going for the fred winter, and he is a front runner who wants a decent clip so if something challenges him for the lead there could be a decent pace on, but from my personal experience of Montjeus in 2miles hurdle races, they so often need a decent clip and so seldom get a good enough one that I couldnt realistically bet on one as short as Alexander Severus is now, despite how much I like the horse.
Ronaldo Des Mottes is a good all rounder, he has a good balance of speed and stamina, and looks adaptable to most ground conditions and that should see him right here.
Nictory Vote is a faster horse than RDM and IMO it was that, coupled with the fact that he was at the front at a slow pace, and RDM who isnt a speedster, was rested at the back before moving gradually into the race, and being left too much to do, that beat him last time. Also RDM had only raced a couple of days beforehand, and looked to be just trying to get a mark for this. The beating has seen RDM better handicapped in this anyway and I think he should be on the premises.
Alexander Severus would seem to be the pick from the irish along with flag ,and they do well in them races to !
even if they have both gone up in the wieghts .I’ve gone for a couple of outers; Bruslini (46) and Love & Glory (44)
There’s a chance neither will get in to the race, but both look nicely handicapped on respective lines through Torphicen and Simarian.
JP has bought Miss Sarenne and McCoy will ride her on Wednesday.
Hence all the money that his been constantly coming in for her all week. I may just have a cover off bet on her while theres still some 10s about.
Georgio Quercus made it on to my radar when appearing at Musselburgh last tmie. He won that race and even before that I was supposing thta nick Henderson had an eye on this event. He looks reasonably handicapped and I don’t think the ground is soft enough to trouble him. I had him rated around the 20/1 mark allowing a margin, so to get 46 this morning was a pleasant surprise.
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