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In his Saturday column in the Post, Paul Nicholls wrote that Hebridean was one of his four entries for the Triumph. He continued :
"Hebridean is capable of a lot better when the ground changes, but I can safely say we have no Celestial Halo in the yard as yet."
Despite that, he runs Hebridean on soft ground today at Kempton, which prompts me to wonder if he’s thinking of getting the horse handicapped (he’d need one more run after this in the next three and a half weeks) for the Fred Winter.
I estimate he’d be given an official mark of around 124 for his first run at Newbury and that would be enough to get him into the race, but the previous runnings have been dominated by higher weighted horses and a rise to around 130 if he wins today might not stop him.
To put that into prespective for his Triumph Hurdle prospects, Walkon was rated 148 before his win on Saturday.
Astute stuff AP – Just finished a 3 length second. I’m not convinced this horse is physically tough enough to win the Fred Winter though.. I certainly wouldn’t be backing him.
Aintree on good ground would be more his conditions.
I think Hebrideans ability to get round cheltenham will all depend on pace, ground and what others turn up in the race. He has all the class to do it, but if the ground is testing and all the contenders were staying types, and with a likely decent pace on I wouldnt touch him at a short enough price. Most of the better looking juvenile novices to have emerged this season however are actually decent staying types and what ones go for the fred winter will probably dictate Hebrideans chances.
If Mount Helicon of Kings gets a decent pace at 2 miles on testing enough ground I think he will have about 20- 30lbs or more improvement on his current mark, and where I would definitely fancy him for the triumph, with King having walk-on I couldnt rule out MH turning up in this.
Between now and aintree the only race I could seriously fancy hebridean having a great chance in is the adonis perhaps, if the ground is right. But longer term I think he’ll go to Aintree or Punchestown (or both) with a hell of a chance.
Nicholls has stated on teletext that Hebrideans next stop will be the adonis.
One who actually looks quite good, and isnt in the triumph is amore mio, who was second to Zaynar last time out. One I would consider if odds were avilable.
Just for clarification, Hebridean is now qualified for a handicap mark as he has finished in the first four on his first two hurdles starts.
UIVMM, Class 1 and 2 handicaps (including the Fred Winter) require 3 runs in order to obtain a mark. It was alluded to by BHA Racing Manager Stewart Middleton in his recent press release about the additional jumps fixtures:
“We are extremely grateful to the Horserace Betting Levy Board for supporting these extra fixtures, particularly as the Fridays will be fourth fixtures and therefore surplus to the Levy Criteria. The programmes for these fixtures will be aimed primarily at novice and bumper horses as we have somewhat of a backlog of young horses trying to get onto the track.
“It also becomes extremely important at this time of year for those trainers worrying about getting three runs into a novice horse so that it can be qualified for the Cheltenham handicaps by the qualification date of February 22nd. This is because all of the Cheltenham Festival handicaps are Class 1 or Class 2 and horses need to have run at least three times before they can run in such races.”
What is the point in using abbreviations, if people then have to google them to find out what they mean?
UIVMM = Unless I’m Very Much Mistaken
PS, I’ve always found it amusing that abbreviation is such a long word
Quite right, that was a bit misleading in my post, he does need another run to qualify for the Fred Winter. I was just pointing out that he now has a mark.
What is the point in using abbreviations…
I’ve always found it amusing that abbreviation is such along word
Gerald,
Given the latter excerpt, you seem to quite clearly have grasped the point in using abbreviations! In using five keystrokes I’ve saved myself 24, and I really don’t want repetitive strain injury (often known as RSI, ironically).
Amore Mio and Hebridean are both now officially rated 128 after their runs last week. That’s certainly high enough to get them into the Fred Winter, assuming Hebridean can fit in the extra run required in time.
This is a race that is going to get better and better in quality terms over the years, especially for owners and trainers who have 2 or 3 good horses and don’t want to run them both in the Triumph.
It’ll be interesting to see what eventually runs in it and hopefully there will be some good value on the day.PWN introduced another interesting prospect in his column today Nictory Vote . Rated 124 . Third twice at Auteuil including to Bucks Boum ,brother of Big Bucks. Going straight to the festival apparently.
Pipes horses- Torpichen and Master Of Arts are potentially decent candidates, he has had a first and a strongly fancied second in the last 2 years. Both horses look decent sorts.
Master Of Arts potentially looks like a triumph horse but then so too did ashkazar last year.
The Pipe pair are clearly good horses, but neither has any chance of completing the three runs needed to qualify for the Fred Winter.
Indeed, this continued spell of disruptive weather is likely to weaken the race by reducing the number of potential runners quite a bit.
Good point AP, in all honesty I didnt even think of the three runs when I posted that, was just looking at torpichen and thinking where could he go in terms of class and trip, and it came from that.
Bulwark,
I note from the Supreme Novice entries printed in the Post today that both those Pipe 4-y-olds are still in that race, so he has the option of keeping them apart by using that and the Triumph.
I rather hope he is more patient with Master Of Arts, as his flat form doesn’t really suggest he’d have the stamina for a championship race at Cheltenham, whereas his Doncaster run shouted Aintree candidate to me.
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