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Anyone else get the feeling that the champ is going to get beaten in the Lockinge Stakes on Saturday.
I think there is so much going against him, like; the distance, first time out for the season, that little knock he had in training and potential improvers in the opposition.
I just cant decide who’s going to beat him, Excelebration or Strong suit. <!– s:? –>
<!– s:? –>I posted on my JLT stakes thread in the big race discussion section that I thought So you think could match him and that I didnt rate Excelebration or Strong suit <!– s:?: –>
<!– s:?: –> lol but I have changed my mind <!– s:wink: –>
<!– s:wink: –> they have a serious shout.Am I just being silly, is Frankel invincible?
and is 1/3 a great price. Buying money?<b>DDEEMAN</b>
You can go ahead and sneeze, because my presence blessed you!!I’d be amazed if anything finishes within 4 lengths of him.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Anyone else get the feeling that the champ is going to get beaten in the Lockinge Stakes on Saturday.
I’ve thought just that every time he runs!
Its not so much the opposition than will beat him but he himself! I’m still convinced he’s a ticking time bomb,he just doesn’t settle like a class horse should, he always wants to go faster,I cant ever see him stepping up in trip as he will burn himself out.His nervous energy has to take its toll on him but over a mile Tom can just about harness it long enough to get him home.Sad fact but true,he will be beaten this year and if its on Saturday,its because he hasn’t trained on,if its over 11/4m its because he doesnt stay so the poor horse is stuck between a rock and a hard place as to truly get the recognition he now deserves he must win over further and that is a fact Joni! Brilliant Miler,he sure was but thats it…….. Now if he won the Arc? LEGEND!I’d be amazed if anything finishes within 4 lengths of him.
You would say that joni bearing in mind
Excelebration
has done just that on 3 occassions,interesting though that when they first clashed in the Greenham your fellow was rated some 37lb better than the latter,their 2nd clash at Royal Ascot saw your fellow improve a mere 4lb but again the biggest improvement came from ‘Excelebration’ who was now only 10lb inferior to your fellow,their final clash again saw further improvement from both horses,’Frankel’ now rated 135 beating ‘Excelebration’ rated another 10lb higher than their previous clash on 126 by the end of the season ‘Frankel’ has only improved 13lb whereas ‘Excelebration’ has improved incredibly the full 37lb he was inferior to the champ at the start of their 3yo campaigns.
On Saturday ‘Frankel’ will officially have 9lb in hand of ‘Excelebration’,understandably the handicapper never raised the Coolmore colt for his victory the other day but in my eyes he’s a 130 colt now,I saw a defineate physical improvement in him,he’s strengthened up and is still improving so too could have ‘Frankel’ of course and Saturday will tell us a lot more than the formality of him just turning up and winning,Excelebration
is the perfect yardstick to judge him by and if he has continued his rapid rate of improvement he will give the monster a run for his money,just remember Joni the benefit of a run is crucial!
I thought Frankel looked huge when he did that racecourse gallop the other week, but, it’s difficult to tell watching it on the telly and I’m no expert in these things. I still reckon his long term plan is the Breeders Cup this year.
I’d be amazed if anything finishes within 4 lengths of him.
You would say that joni bearing in mind
Excelebration
has done just that on 3 occassions,interesting though that when they first clashed in the Greenham your fellow was rated some 37lb better than the latter,their 2nd clash at Royal Ascot saw your fellow improve a mere 4lb but again the biggest improvement came from ‘Excelebration’ who was now only 10lb inferior to your fellow,their final clash again saw further improvement from both horses,’Frankel’ now rated 135 beating ‘Excelebration’ rated another 10lb higher than their previous clash on 126 by the end of the season ‘Frankel’ has only improved 13lb whereas ‘Excelebration’ has improved incredibly the full 37lb he was inferior to the champ at the start of their 3yo campaigns.
On Saturday ‘Frankel’ will officially have 9lb in hand of ‘Excelebration’,understandably the handicapper never raised the Coolmore colt for his victory the other day but in my eyes he’s a 130 colt now,I saw a defineate physical improvement in him,he’s strengthened up and is still improving so too could have ‘Frankel’ of course and Saturday will tell us a lot more than the formality of him just turning up and winning,Excelebration
is the perfect yardstick to judge him by and if he has continued his rapid rate of improvement he will give the monster a run for his money,just remember Joni the benefit of a run is crucial!
Some good points in there – i’m glad Excelebration is in the field again, fair play to connections for persevering in taking Frankel on.
I’d be amazed if anything finishes within 4 lengths of him.
You would say that joni bearing in mind
Excelebration
has done just that on 3 occassions,interesting though that when they first clashed in the Greenham your fellow was rated some 37lb better than the latter,their 2nd clash at Royal Ascot saw your fellow improve a mere 4lb but again the biggest improvement came from ‘Excelebration’ who was now only 10lb inferior to your fellow,their final clash again saw further improvement from both horses,’Frankel’ now rated 135 beating ‘Excelebration’ rated another 10lb higher than their previous clash on 126 by the end of the season ‘Frankel’ has only improved 13lb whereas ‘Excelebration’ has improved incredibly the full 37lb he was inferior to the champ at the start of their 3yo campaigns.
On Saturday ‘Frankel’ will officially have 9lb in hand of ‘Excelebration’,understandably the handicapper never raised the Coolmore colt for his victory the other day but in my eyes he’s a 130 colt now,I saw a defineate physical improvement in him,he’s strengthened up and is still improving so too could have ‘Frankel’ of course and Saturday will tell us a lot more than the formality of him just turning up and winning,Excelebration
is the perfect yardstick to judge him by and if he has continued his rapid rate of improvement he will give the monster a run for his money,just remember Joni the benefit of a run is crucial!
I think you reasoning is flawed here APK.
Frankel beat Excelebration by 4L in the Greenham in April, he beat him 4L in the QEII in October. Now I know those races were over slightly different distances but, broadly speaking, this suggests they both improved at a similar rate over the intervening 6 months and that Frankel was always 8-10lb superior, you could argue that Frankel could well be a bit better again giving that he was pulling further clear from Excelebration in both races.
The upshot of this is that Excelebration was obviously a far better animal than he had shown before that Greenham run. He very probably could have been rated much higher a 2 if he had been campaigned in better company and of course he could have made greater than average physical improvement over that winter.
Your suggestion that Botti’s colt showed a massive 24lb more improvement than Frankel during the 3 year old campaign clearly wrong.
As for the outcome of the Lockinge. Well this could the best opportunity Excelebration has to beat his nemesis, with having had the run and the the Cecil string have been a little hit and miss this spring, he could well bustle up the fav but I think Frankel will again have too many guns. The others have no chance whatsoever.
Excellent write up KD, well thought out.
Coolmore know the best chance of getting Frankel beat (at a mile) is first time up where they’ve got a possible fitness advantage. Still not fully convinced he’ll be as good at 10 furlongs. Bred to get it, but can take a hold in his races.
Anyway, back to the Lockinge…
Don’t talk XXXX TAPK, if Frankel does get beat it won’t be due to "not training on".
We don’t know if the injury and/or absence will have some effect on performance.
If the rains come… Frankel won his maiden and Dewhurst (then his best run) on a soft surface. But those amazing performances last year came on a sound surface. Probably a coincidence, as more likely to be due to just getting better and maturing. However, he’s such a beautiful mover, with a long striding, flowing action that is usually seen to best advantage on a sound surface. So is Frankel as good on soft ground?Strong Suit will probably need a sound surface to stay a mile. But we know Excelebration goes well on a soft surface and there’s that possible fitness advantage. He’s not just a miler, he’s the second best miler in the World, with a possibility of more improvement to come this season. Although Frankel is obviously the most likely winner and deserves to be odds on, if I were having a bet it would be Excelebration at the price. It’s a shame only 7 will go to post; because Excelebration would’ve (imo) been a good each way bet (even at 11/4) with 8 runners.
Value Is EverythingHe’s not just a miler, he’s the second best miler in the World, with a possibility of more improvement to come this season.
You guys are as bad as the yanks!
Tell me how much you know about the Japanese, gingerminger.
"As for the outcome of the Lockinge. Well this could the best opportunity Excelebration has to beat his nemesis, with having had the run and the the Cecil string have been a little hit and miss this spring,"
I’ve read these sort of comments before, in another thread on here re the the trainers form… Is it the trainers of the horses? Peter Moody could’ve trained a rocking horse 12 months ago, everything was winning. Since then, not so much but the class horses keep on winning… I’d expect Frankel to win this quite easily..
There is a surefire way to predict whether he will win or lose: if I back him or not.
On the v, v, v rare occasions I’ve had a big punt on a short price it is beaten. 100 pc of bets have been dodos. No exceptions.
If I have any kind of decent bet on Frankel he will be beaten, I promise you, the gods will make sure of it.
I will let you all know on Saturday morning.I would be amazed if anything got within 4 lengths of him.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Only you Gord could deduce that a horse beaten 4 lengths by another one in April and then 4 lengths again by the same horse in October has improved massively more. With respect you have been very consistent in your judgement of Frankel and that judgement has been consistently wrong. I would be more worried if you were predicting he wins tomorrow.
I am a huge fan of Exc and he may finish his usual 4 lengths behind as he has had a run but i think Frankel has more scope and will beat him easier this year. His lack of a previous run doesnt worry me as Sir H will not have his unbeaten superstar undercooked enough to compromise his winning chance. Chachamaidee was another one of several horses to win first time out last week.
I think some people still dont get how good this horse is and actually dont want to. Fair enough. Nothing I say will change that. He wont be beaten tomorrow. Enjoy the show and let the horse do the talking.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think your reasoning is flawed here APK.
Your suggestion that Botti’s colt showed a massive 24lb more improvement than Frankel during the 3 year old campaign clearly wrong.
KD,
Excelebration
started his 3 yo campaign rated 89,
Frankel
started his rated 126.’Frankel’ achieved that rating through his 2yo campaign as a 3yo he has improved only 10lb from that mark to 136 which is obviously a superb rating (For a Miler),however ‘Excelebration’ was rated a mere 89 from 3 outings as a 2yo and in all 3 races he showed greeness,particularly his debut at Nottingham so he was as backward a 2yo as Frankel was as Forward a 2yo thats why there was 37lb difference between them in the Greenham,hindsight shows however there wasn’t and ‘Excelebration’ maintained the improvement through his 3yo campaign to justify a far more realistic rating of 126,I saw a potential 130 colt in Ireland the other day and if he runs up to that mark tomorrow he’s a big threat to Henrys quote "Stronger much more settled 4yo".The form book and the ratings suggest another 4 length drubbing from the monster and Henry wont want to break the unbeaten record he has so he has to be near on 100% fit.
If he’s not and he did look huge in those gallops and something in that head of his flips then the 1/3 on offer will be the Lay of the season.Of course 99% of the Racing world wont hear of defeat and I’ll be wrong again! Now if ‘Frankel’ could settle likeEl Gran Senor
,quicken up,go clear and ease down tomorrow I’d take the 29’s now for the Arc………..He wont though will he? Will he Joni?
He’s not just a miler, he’s the second best miler in the World, with a possibility of more improvement to come this season.
You guys are as bad as the yanks!
Tell me how much you know about the Japanese, gingerminger.
Must admit AIC, I haven’t heard of this Japanese horse called "Gingerminger".
Doesn’t come up in my Horsesearch! Please fill me in about his form.Once again you’re so hypocritical my Aussie chum. You’ve been going on about how Australia has
all
the best sprinters for long enough.
Just because we have the best couple of milers in GB and IRE at the moment, doesn’t mean it’ll always be so. All I am saying in this context is: Frankel is taking on a real top class racehorse in Excelebration and should not be underestimated. Frankel needs to bring his A game to his reappearance.
I expect Frankel to win, but if I were betting it would be Excelebration. Wouldn’t expect you to understand that AIC; it’s all about value.
Value Is EverythingI think Frankel is a good horse, talked up by the public to be a phenomenal one. Everybody wants that electric wonderhorse that is great to watch and they WANT frankel to be that horse.
He hasnt done enough or beat enough to be a super great horse yet in my opinion. It could all change tomorow though if he wins hard on the steel by 6 lenghts. But it won’t happen.
By the way, beating Excelebration by 3 lenghts is NO great achievement, never struck me as a worldbeater.
My point is, dont expect an amazing performance by Frankel tomorrow, he’ll prob win but wont be phenomenal performance by any means.
I might be made to look like an idiot tomorrow lol DEEMAN
You can go ahead and sneeze, coz, my presence blessed you!!Seriously? ^He is still just hype? He is only a "good" horse?What does he actually have to do then Deeman? An average winning distance of 5 lengths not enough? You are clearly a hard man to satisfy.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
<!– s:? –>
<!– s:?: –> lol but I have changed my mind <!– s:wink: –>
<!– s:wink: –> they have a serious shout.
Its not so much the opposition than will beat him but he himself! I’m still convinced he’s a ticking time bomb,he just doesn’t settle like a class horse should, he always wants to go faster,I cant ever see him stepping up in trip as he will burn himself out.His nervous energy has to take its toll on him but over a mile Tom can just about harness it long enough to get him home.Sad fact but true,he will be beaten this year and if its on Saturday,its because he hasn’t trained on,if its over 11/4m its because he doesnt stay so the poor horse is stuck between a rock and a hard place as to truly get the recognition he now deserves he must win over further and that is a fact Joni! Brilliant Miler,he sure was but thats it…….. 
Now if he won the Arc? LEGEND!
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