- This topic has 22 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 8 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I understand there is still time to supplement Foxrock for the Gold Cup. He has something to find, but seems to be rapidly improving. Is it worth the outlay?
On His Own did it last year at a cost of £27,500 didn’t he?
He’d only have to finish fourth to recoup the costs and he has a very good chance of doing that. His age wouldn’t be a barrier and he finished eight lengths ahead of the returning-to-form current champion so if I had the kind of money Mr Connell has, I’d take the punt.
I understand there is still time to supplement Foxrock for the Gold Cup. He has something to find, but seems to be rapidly improving. Is it worth the outlay?
Yes.
Value Is EverythingIt would be an astonishing improvement should he be supplemented and win which I doubt greatly.
He could only come 9th in the 4 miler last year.
It would be a shock to me if he could mix it at the top IMO.
I know he beat Lord Windermere but that horse is trained for 1 race only and you will see a different horse next month.On His Own did it last year at a cost of £27,500 didn’t he?
He’d only have to finish fourth to recoup the costs and he has a very good chance of doing that. His age wouldn’t be a barrier and he finished eight lengths ahead of
the returning-to-form current champion
so if I had the kind of money Mr Connell has, I’d take the punt.
Lord Windermere was beaten 3 and a 1/4 lengths by Carlingford Lough in The Lexus and has just finished 8 and 3/4 lengths behind the same horse. I don’t see that as returning to form at all.
Must be missing something there?
I can’t see Foxrock in the first half dozen. With the usual suspects from last year being joined by Road To Riches, Many Clouds, Holywell, Djakadam and Shutthefrontdoor, all of whom are quietly or strongly fancied in places, plus Silviniaco Conti sitting there as a warm favourite and the possibility of Coneygree thrown into the mix, it looks a race where the horse could run the race of his life and still finish 8th.
The owner will take three weeks to mull it over. Perhaps once the excitement and Jameson’s has worn off he’ll see reason.
p.s. I’m on the hunt for a price for last year’s 1-2-3 to all be unplaced this year. Anybody know where I might find that?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
p.s. I’m on the hunt for a price for last year’s 1-2-3 to all be unplaced this year. Anybody know where I might find that?
That’ll be odds-on.
Value Is EverythingI always thought Gingertipster was a value merchant? Maybe he’s not as bothered about value when it’s someone else’s money
What are the odds of getting your supplementary back or better? Got to be odds against so would be a no from me.
I would run him if already entered but not as a supplementary, maybe questions should be asked why he wasn’t entered in the first place.
If he were to play a part you have to wonder about what went wrong at last year’s Festival. I know I did at the time.
Katie Walsh, ground, track, or a combination?
Lord Windermere was beaten 3 and a 1/4 lengths by Carlingford Lough in The Lexus and has just finished 8 and 3/4 lengths behind the same horse. I don’t see that as returning to form at all.
Must be missing something there?
I thought he looked much livelier on Sunday than he did in December, travelling into the race with ease and looked like winning the race for a few strides. If you’re going to use Carlingford Lough as a yardstick then you have to do the same with his other opponents from both races in which case, he’s improved against Boston Bob (6.5l turn around) On His Own (13.5l) and First Lieutenant (15l). Perhaps I’m wrong but if I am then so is Timeform who rate his Hennessy performance three pounds superior to his Lexus effort. And what are the chances of both me and Timeform being wrong?
Lord Windermere was beaten 3 and a 1/4 lengths by Carlingford Lough in The Lexus and has just finished 8 and 3/4 lengths behind the same horse. I don’t see that as returning to form at all.
Must be missing something there?
I thought he looked much livelier on Sunday than he did in December, travelling into the race with ease and looked like winning the race for a few strides. If you’re going to use Carlingford Lough as a yardstick then you have to do the same with his other opponents from both races in which case, he’s improved against Boston Bob (6.5l turn around) On His Own (13.5l) and First Lieutenant (15l). Perhaps I’m wrong but if I am then so is Timeform who rate his Hennessy performance three pounds superior to his Lexus effort. And what are the chances of both me and Timeform being wrong?
Carlingford Lough looks the most reliable horse by far to gauge form from. On His Own is inconsistent, Boston Bob is a horse with more excuses than an excuse factory and First Lieutenant is long gone at the game.
I said in my preview of the race that Carlingford Lough was the one to take from The Lexus but I wasn’t quite taken enough by his odds. In that preview I also said I was against Boston Bob, On His Own, Lord Windermere and First Lieutenant and gave my reasons.
The full post is below and was posted on the site on 4th Feb, so I am not aftertiming my opinions to fit the thinking on Lord Windermere.
"The Irish Hennessey gives us the first chance to assess the form of the Lexus chase, as nothing that ran there has been out since. We are more than making up for that now though, with no less than six of the nine entries having run behind Road To Riches last time.
People will have favourite horses and various reasons regarding who will come out best this time and it makes for a competitive heat that could be tricky to call.
I was initially drawn to Carlingford Lough, based on his age and the fact that he was having his first race of the year in the Lexus. Being that bit older and having had chances already this season, Boston Bob makes less appeal. He was running on ground less than ideal last time, but some of the others were in the same boat on that ground and Bob’s been a bit disappointing for me. Backed in to 9/4 in a place, he makes about as much appeal as a dung dumpling in your Irish Stew.
On His Own ran a cracker in the Lexus after a pitiful effort in the J N Wines. He’s a Gold Cup runner up, some would say should have got the race via the Stewards. He’s a bit long in the tooth for me and I still have bitter memories of two Grand National falls when I was on at big odds. He’s as short as 3/1 and that is making the stew look less appetising by the minute.
Carlingford Lough was briefly 9/2 today and just about the last semblance of any value but that’s gone and he’s 4/1 at best and as low as 3/1 with some.
At the lowest odds for the leading three, 9/4, 3/1, 3/1 they look appalling value and even at the best odds, 3/1, 4/1, 4/1, I am not seeing any value at all.
Foxrock would be in contention if we can really believe that he ran such a big career best last time. He dropped down in trip to 2m 5f after looking to tire on heavy ground in the Irish Paddy Power, where he just held on for second. He toted 11st 8lbs to an impressive win in The Boylesports Handicap Chase (Worth 60 grand) and emerged with a new rating of 158, up 9lbs on his previous rating and he’s now a stone higher than his Paddy Power mark of 142. As Tommy says, he’s been busy but he’s had a three week break and he’s a young horse who seems to be improving. If we can believe his new mark, he’s only six lbs behind the top rated. On the downside, he steps back up in trip from his career best run and he’s a shorter price at 6/1 than the reigning Gold Cup champion Lord Windermere.
Talking of Lord Windermere, he was disappointing in The Lexus and much has been made of him being trained for just one race this season. I can’t have him here based on his two runs this year and no guarantee he’ll be fully tuned yet. Some may see 7/1 as a big price and I suppose looking at Boston Bob at 9/4 you would tend to agree but he’s just not a horse I’m a big fan of so far.
First Lieutenant has become very disappointing for me and I always oppose him these days. He seems on the way down and never quite landed the big one some thought him capable of.
An interesting race on a fascinating card but one I can’t see offering a good betting opportunity. The odds are woefully tight in places.
Good luck to all having a go."
Considering that the Hennessey was run on better ground than the Lexus, and was run more than 12 seconds faster, it is not hard to imagine that Lord Windermere might have been better suited by the better ground than some of his less reliable rivals. It is also probably why Timeform rate the run more highly.
In my view it is still disappointing that given the extra time he has had and the less testing race conditions he faced, he still managed to finish further behind the winner than he had done when conditions were less favourable.
Yes, he has turned it around with the others but I had said before the race that I didn’t trust those horses and I find it disappointing that he has finished so far behind Foxrock.
I think it would be a big mistake to run Foxrock in the Gold Cup.
As for whether yourself AND Timeform can ever both be wrong about something, I cannot evaluate odds on that occurring. I readily accept that I can be wrong, as it happens often enough. I don’t have the stats for Timeform but my best guess is that they are not correct all the time either.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I take on board what you’re saying re Boston Bob, On His Own and First Lieutenant but by using Carlingford Lough as solid pound-precise yardstick, you have to dismiss the fact that this was by far a career best effort and that he was entitled to improve significantly from his return following a gruelling novice campaign. A widening margin between Carlingford Lough and Lord Windermere is not necessarily indicative of a regression or stagnation in the Gold Cup winner which is what you’re suggesting.
As for Foxrock, he is on balance less likely to finish in the first four than he is likely but he still holds a sporting chance and I don’t think it would be a huge mistake for connections to run him in the race. Whilst there’s the danger of a Gold Cup run at the age of seven taking its toll, he contested the highly demanding four miler last year where he hated the ground, jumped like a hippo and was beaten into ninth but that didn’t have any damaging effect on his second season chasing.
I take on board what you’re saying re Boston Bob, On His Own and First Lieutenant but by using Carlingford Lough as solid pound-precise yardstick, you have to dismiss the fact that this was by far a career best effort and that he was entitled to improve significantly from his return following a gruelling novice campaign. A widening margin between Carlingford Lough and Lord Windermere is not necessarily indicative of a regression or stagnation in the Gold Cup winner which is what you’re suggesting.
As for Foxrock, he is on balance less likely to finish in the first four than he is likely but he still holds a sporting chance and I don’t think it would be a huge mistake for connections to run him in the race. Whilst there’s the danger of a Gold Cup run at the age of seven taking its toll, he contested the highly demanding four miler last year where he hated the ground, jumped like a hippo and was beaten into ninth but that didn’t have any damaging effect on his second season chasing.
I thought Carlingford Lough had the most scope of The Lexus runners but, allowing for that, on the better ground you might well have expected Lord Windermere to also come forward, with his title defence now closing in. We’ll find out in March regarding him.
Looking at Foxrock, the positives are that he’s young and improving. It’s only fair though to question how much improvement there actually is and I have made my case regarding that.
Looking at other factors, we have the fact that he disappointed at Cheltenham last year. Although it was 4 miles, that is offset to some extent by the quality of horses that show up in those marathon races. He went off favourite but was only ninth, weakening at the business end. I am doubting if the cauldron of a Gold Cup at 3m 2f will play to his strengths.
When Foxrock ran in the Irish Paddy Power over 3 miles and a bit on heavy, he was leading but was headed on the run-in and barely held on for second. Dropped to 2m 5f next time he looked much better when saying on well to win cosily in the end. In the Hennessey he was again collared on the run-in, this time on far better ground than the Paddy Power.
For me, the Gold Cup trip and the Cheltenham track are big question marks and his previous trip wasn’t a great run.
I am not saying they will ruin the horse but a few have had a hard time after facing the ultimate test at Cheltenham. It is more a case of being patient with the horse and take sensible steps to the top, rather than get caught up in the hype and get nothing.
"Wise men say, only fools rush in"
And while we’re talking Elvis, who can forget the classic:-
"A little less constipation, a little more laxative please"
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
On the basis of Lord Windermere, Boston Bob and Texas Jack always finishing close together over fences the form looks reliable enough. Lord Windermere was at the head of the trio this time suggesting he`s in fair order
I always thought Gingertipster was a value merchant? Maybe he’s not as bothered about value when it’s someone else’s money
I didn’t give an opinion whether it is value or not Yeats, it’s not my bet so I don’t need to decide. Just saying it is probably odds-on all three – Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster finishing out of the frame.Value Is EverythingI always thought Gingertipster was a value merchant? Maybe he’s not as bothered about value when it’s someone else’s money
I didn’t give an opinion whether it is value or not Yeats, it’s not my bet so I don’t need to decide. Just saying it is probably odds-on all three – Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster finishing out of the frame.A rudimentary wrangling of percentages using the odds last available in the TBP market would have it at around 4/9 for them all to finish out of the first three.
Foxrock was only 3/4 length behind Carlingford Lough. Carlingford Lough is a top priced 12/1 chance for Cheltenham glory. Hennessey probably both Carlingford Lough and Foxrock’s best performances to date. Latter has been consistently progressive this term. Both horses ran poorly at the Festival last season. Foxrock is an improved jumper this term too (made several mistakes in the NH Chase). He’s beaten an albeit below form Lord Windermere 8 lengths
Whichever way you look at it, there is not much between Carlingford Lough and Foxrock. If I owned a horse with a 12/1 to 14/1 chance of winning the Blue Riband of steeple chasing… I’d supplement and run! Especially when taking just one horse out (Silvi) – this looks the most open Gold Cup for many a year. May never get this opportunity again.
Value Is EverythingDoes anyone else share my concern about the trip for Foxrock?
His new rating is 164, which puts him in the mix if we can trust a race where there were a few disappointing horses who haven’t been putting their best foot forward this year. He’ll have to improve again, which is possible but it could be that others will also improve by time they line up for the Gold Cup.
Foxrock was running off 142 in The Paddy Power on 27th December and it’s some feat to now be rated 22 lbs higher in such a short space of time. If he goes to the Gold Cup though, he might be facing fellow improvers Road To Riches, Many Clouds, Carlingford Lough, who went up 8 lbs himself, Djakadam, who is probably better than his current 157, and Coneygree who went up to 166.
With Coneygree in the race, we know they won’t be taking any prisoners and it could turn into a brutal race. I just don’t see how we can be sure of Foxrock staying it truly in those conditions. Even if he does, he has Silviniaco Conti as warm favourite, who’ll be a lock for a place for many people, will Lord Windermere bounce back to his best and grab another of the places, will Holywell prove Jonjo the Cheltenham King with a display that fills another one of the places, can
anyone
catch Coneygree in front, will Road To Riches prove he’s better still than his Lexus win on soft ground, is Many Clouds the dour old-fashioned style Gold Cup winner some have said he looks like?
Too many question marks for me to supplement the horse when there are other more realistic options and the option is there to come to the Gold Cup next year with more experience and, potentially improvement, in the bag.
We race fans tend to be impatient and want to see as fascinating a renewal possible, as quickly as possible. It will be a good race without the novices so let’s spread the quality and be patient.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.