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Hi Mr Forecast and thanks for the comments
My database team consists of one person…me
I’m trying to be selective with these bets and am struggling to find too many opportunities at the moment, am largely waiting for the flat season to settle in, it’s always dicey the first month or so with question marks over horses fitness, speed figures from the tail-end of last season are fairly useless in determining how a horse will run first time out but I hope to have something soon. Ideally I am looking for a strong stats/value-priced runners for these bets that offer at least a 50% edge…I have a few in the Class1/2/3 contests but those are subscriber-only but I do hope there will be a few more qualifiers through the flat season at Class4 level that I will continue to post up.
Cheers for watching and for the complimentary comments…it’s hard work but it’s rewarding to get feedback like that.
Quite a few in the Class races today but can’t post them so have picked one out from a Class4 later.
Tonight at Kempton sees a value priced contender who has finished 1-1-2 on his last 3 runs, is a CD winner, ranks 1st on the main FBR rating, 2nd on the MSR (Master Speed Rating) and holds a fitness advantage over the majority of his rivals. Kempton all-weather is not my favourite track in the world in terms of consistency and he has to concede weight to some unexposed rivals who may have his measure but at 16/1 I think MAYS BOY is overpriced in the 8:45 at Kempton.
Kempton 8:45 MAYS BOY @ 16/1 (Bet365/Hills/Coral)
http://content.screencast.com/users/formbet.co.uk/folders/Jing/media/6b6366ef-efb8-429b-9d48-d1ff6f5eb601/kemp845.png
only just seen this and seems interesting,i spend hour’s reading the form books on the web but keep a close check on how you get on ,i will check your selection against my timeform rating this might give me an edge.best of luck.d/d
Waiting until the very last race of the day for the VALUE bet COUNTESS COMET at around 9/1 could be an improver this season and the Beckett stable is in good form and looks overpriced with a fair MSR3 and a few % in hand of her rivals in a tight contest.
Doncaster 19:55 COUNTESS COMET @ 9/1
http://content.screencast.com/users/formbet.co.uk/folders/Jing/media/e5832386-3415-4832-a17b-079f9d606d83/2011-04-16_1255.png
remarkes about the mail form ratings they are not worth the paper they are written on .have had a look at your website..(BTF)i think that knowledge would be beyond me to follow,but i would recomend it to the younger generation ,i hope you hit the jackpot at some point,D/D
Hi Formbet
Nice to see the tips especially if winners
What i was expecting to see though was a ‘system’ on a System forum.
Am guessing it won’t be explained to the forum as i guess you are hoping to use it as an advertisement to your website.
Maybe that is why the feedback is so lowRegards
HatterHi Formbet
Nice to see the tips especially if winners
What i was expecting to see though was a ‘system’ on a System forum.
Am guessing it won’t be explained to the forum as i guess you are hoping to use it as an advertisement to your website.
Maybe that is why the feedback is so lowRegards
HatterWhat is it you want explained exactly ? I haven’t mentioned my site and am not at all interested in advertising anything, the tagline for this forum is "Discuss systems and methods and put up your system’s selections" which is exactly what I have been doing. If I don’t find anything strong enough each day or am short of time then I am not able to do that but that is not such a bad thing with a selective strategy. I just thought more people might be willing to discuss a value approach or ratings/odds-lines in general rather than question my motives for doing this.
I put up a detailed explanation of what I am doing and how I am arriving at shortlisting the selections for each race I put up. I have also tried to put up the reasoning for the selections and the ratings/odds-estimate etc and I hope a few people have made some cash off the back of them…thanks anyway for your feedback, even if it wasn’t the type of constructive type I was hoping for
so far dave i have found your free videos and free tips very rewarding, i learnt a great tip from you about laying in a lay bet to cover horses which get beat on the line which has saved me a pretty penny. as well as your free value tips you give out. im sure if it was a advertising plot you would of metioned the 89/1 horse you got on on saturday.
as you know i am not a subscriber but this does not stop me being intregead in your work
keep it up dave as we all may learn a thing or to
Cheers Mr F – to be honest I don’t need to advertise anything, just trying to promote some discussion on value/ratings and put up some bets for people
There has been a seriously lack of value opportunities at the Class4 level for me over the last week so I’ll step up a grade to Class3 level and head to Epsom today.
The selection is a close 2nd on my ratings and where there is little to separate the runners in a trappy looking handicap the MSR1 and the price makes the choice fairly straightforward. Epsom is a tricky track, some handle it and some don’t but I’ll take my chances.
Fitness cannot be assured but Johnston and Dettori make a formidable combo so it’s worth a go at 20/1 with Stan James as it should be less than half those odds I feel.
Epsom 2.35 MISTER ANGRY @ 21
http://content.screencast.com/users/formbet/folders/Jing/media/2925e5f2-fbb7-415a-af09-3fbc017230cc/epsom235.png
Hi FB
Sorry if my comments offended you
As you have quoted "the tagline for this forum is "Discuss systems and methods and put up your system’s selections".
What i was trying to say is that your system is of no use to me or anyone else if you no longer post.
You haven’t explained how you come to your ratings & obviously the cream is only available on a subscription basis – thereby you will still not reveal how you came to your conclusions.Unlucky today – poss summat wrong with nag
Cheerz
HatterHi FB
Sorry if my comments offended you
As you have quoted "the tagline for this forum is "Discuss systems and methods and put up your system’s selections".
What i was trying to say is that your system is of no use to me or anyone else if you no longer post.
You haven’t explained how you come to your ratings & obviously the cream is only available on a subscription basis – thereby you will still not reveal how you came to your conclusions.Unlucky today – poss summat wrong with nag
Cheerz
HatterDidn’t offend me Hatter just inaccurate as to why I was posting and I am sure the selections/system and discussion on value and the races has been useful to some people. If you don’t find it useful, just ignore the thread…simples. As for not posting, I said it was selective and I am waiting largely for the flat season form to settle down for the first month…as to how I arrive at my ratings…your kidding right
This isn’t about how the ratings are formed, that is a unique rating based on 25+ criteria all weighted according to the relevancy of the race type and are a result of 5 years work in total based on around 15 years worth of race and form analysis…some criteria are obvious but many are totally unique and so to reveal them to the ‘world’ would lose any edge they have…the criteria are never revealed to anyone member or not…the post was more about forming an odds-line, value-betting etc and I do reveal how I come to my conclusions in the posts so really don’t understand your issue with it.Yes, it was sweating up like a pig before the race and ran like one, something amiss there but a number of Johnston’s have been like that…serves me right for not looking for those that have at least had a recent run ! Hopefully better on Saturday.
Evening Hat…. Just read this thread, I am probably the only guy on here that openly admits to disliking paid for stuff…. why??, not because the selections are not profitable, but because there are loads of free stuff around so that there is no need to pay….
But in saying that, I have to agree with FB….. he surely feels the same way as I do, if you’ve worked and sweated for 25 years to master your craft, you certainly aint gonna give it away…. the only difference between FB and me is that I don’t sell my stuff, but neither do I give it away…. with the good stuff, I will pass on the selections because my bets are already on, but I won’t give my selection process away either…. I seem to remember that it was decided, by Matron and Cormy, that the selections only were OK to post, as long as they were system based…. I think FB is within his compass to just post the selections…. the fact that he advertises his own service is up to Corm…. to me, it’s a put off, as soon as I see a service offered, I switch off that thread and don’t look at it again, I suggest that, if you feel that way, then just like me, you ignore it….. but whatever you decide to do, I believe he has the right to post his selections….. no aggro intended, please note the smiley’s…..
MrE
In fairness I don’t think that Formbet, at any time, has advertised his subscription service on TRF but perhaps as, understandably, he is not prepared to reveal the mechanics behind his selections they are more relevant to ‘Daily Lays and Plays’.
Anyway, good luck to you, Formbet….I also believe that Ratings allied to Systems is the way to go.Powered by Linux
Thanks for the post MrE…but I haven’t actually been advertising anything…I deliberately didn’t mention what I do as it’s not the place to do so and I only mentioned it in defence to ‘Hatters’ accusation that it was my primary reason for posting which it wasn’t. I agree there is plenty of free stuff on the net although how good or original most of it is is open to debate. I also am dead against paying for ‘tipsters’ or ‘inside info’ – much better to show people alternative angles and provide them with all the relevant information to make an informed decision on a horse/race themselves but also offer up a few suggestions which I think is of better long-term benefit to help people improve themselves as punters rather than being spoon-fed ‘stuff’.
I must admit though I did expect more in the way of discussion regarding the initial post about forming an odds-line whether it is based on ratings or any other form of analysis and how to highlight value from that odds-line…I feel most ‘gamblers’ would improve their betting immeasurably by doing this but only a very small minority do so.
Part of the problem also with value betting is it requires a different mindset than looking for the winner in the race, similarly looking purely for value will not be an optimum approach but something in between I think works very well.
I’ll think on it but I’ll probably stop posting now to be honest as I don’t want to get drawn into debates about my intentions for posting as once they start down that path they often snowball.
For those wishing to learn more about this kind of approach though The book ‘Money secrets at the racetrack’ by Barry Meadow is a recommended read for anyone wishing to totally change the way they bet like this.
Good Luck folks
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