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On draw and pace…
Wyatt Earp
Slickback Jack
MinturnoWith the first 2 preferred at the prices.
It’s not a race for me to get involved in but just on the issue of the draw.
On fast ground, when the stalls are low, over this course and distance, stalls 1 and 2 have only won 5 out of the last 25 races. Perhaps the low draw isn’t as important as previously thought?
Market looks well done for this, Wyatt Earp looks an OK price but as an exposed quirky ageing runner in a class 5 handicap there isn’t enough for me to warrant a bet, wouldn’t look to far beyond the front two in the market but neither make any interest at the prices.
It’s not a race for me to get involved in but just on the issue of the draw.
On fast ground, when the stalls are low, over this course and distance, stalls 1 and 2 have only won 5 out of the last 25 races. Perhaps the low draw isn’t as important as previously thought?
I think its an plus if you can take an advantage.Ie. a hold up:- its no advantage.fast running front runner that gets an easy lead huge advantage.
Got me money back and the grade dropper wins.The race went to plan but I still didn’t get the winner.Night trade can win in a higher grade.Looking at the time I’d say the ground is nearer good than g/f.
so I take it that’s a no to that ginger?
Sorry not replied Palacemat. No, it wasn’t a no. Although for the opposite reason, I rarely do sprint handicaps, particularly large field events because they don’t seem to give me an edge (Stewards Cup an exception). Although condition sprints are fine if you wanted to do a similar thing with them. It can’t be a Goodwood, Newbury or Salisbury day or near one as I’ll be stuck in the form book / going racing and have little time.
Trouble might be, I won’t be able to quote what my Timeform form books say.
If you want to see a more expansive explanation of how I do things, I believe you are a member of another forum? Look for a thread called "How To Produce A 100% Book".
I don’t do 100% books for every race, but always need a good idea what price is value or not.
Ginge
Value Is EverythingLoad a B*llocks Ginge!
Expected a comment like that from you TAPK.
Tell that to Dave Nevison. Ever read the second chapter of his second book?
Most, if not all professional gamblers look for the horse who is best value to win. Not neccessarily the one with the best chance of winning.
Value Is Everythingso I take it that’s a no to that ginger?
Sorry not replied Palacemat. No, it wasn’t a no. Although for the opposite reason, I rarely do sprint handicaps, particularly large field events because they don’t seem to give me an edge (Stewards Cup an exception). Although condition sprints are fine if you wanted to do a similar thing with them. It can’t be a Goodwood, Newbury or Salisbury day or near one as I’ll be stuck in the form book / going racing and have little time.
Trouble might be, I won’t be able to quote what my Timeform form books say.
If you want to see a more expansive explanation of how I do things, I believe you are a member of another forum? Look for a thread called "How To Produce A 100% Book".
I don’t do 100% books for every race, but always need a good idea what price is value or not.
Ginge
ok
1- First look at class of race.
2- Check if any horses have won in that class
3-Check which horses are on top of their form
4-Look for good recent form
Served me in good stead for many years and still get the same buzz each day long may it continue.For me the No 1 way to knock out runners Leither. Looking back (as I did) to the first day of Glorious Goodwood I could have found 4 winners in all the Class 2 races following your plan. A good break of 20-40 days since last ran also seemed to help. Honest, in all class 2 races the field was wittled down to at the most 4 horses to select and on that day contained the winner at pretty good odds to.
You dont even need to go thru the RP, It was all there on the race card of the Daily Mirror.
However having noted this
for the first time
after time and doing the same for Wednesday and Thursday at Goodwood it failed miserably. You gotta look out for the progressive horses I guess and thats where it becomes less of a science and more gut feeling. But on the whole Leither this is a pretty good form read to base your winners on.
Also on the same scheme never ever ever rule out Group One winners dropping into handicap or Class 2 and 3 in both codes even if that Group One win was three or four years ago. For Racing Post balance you wont find that form in the Mirror though!
Well i guess i must have been doing it all wrong,backed plenty of winners at goodwood last week particularly the first one of the week Indian Days but its all about interpretation of your own rules i guess.
Well i guess i must have been doing it all wrong,backed plenty of winners at goodwood last week particularly the first one of the week Indian Days but its all about interpretation of your own rules i guess.
Indian Days was one of them that couldnt get beat following. On the first Day this law ruled as I said in my first post, second day when I followed it it didnt. Class 3 previous winners stepping up were winning.
I’m on your side
IMO In sprints the race is ran in the first furlong.The energy the horse has to use to get up to race speed x track x going. That’s why when horses go up in class they cant keep up.Speed of thought and early pace.
I was hoping to get more join in here but I think it just shows how many people are really interested or really know anything about race form.I think that’s why the virtual crap does so well.
Is there much between grades in sprints Placemat? For example, it seems easier for top sprint handicappers to break in to group class in sprints than any other distance.
Think people don’t join in with threads like this is because they’re on a hiding to nothing. You can’t win. Just look at the response to my earlier post. Whatever you say is likely to be derided without coming up with explanations to why. It may be done in a light-hearted way but does not encourage debate, or encourage others to put their opinions to the test.
Although hving said that, working out one race will give a false impression of someone’s ability, win or lose. So means little. I know you’re really asking how people do things; but sadly, whether the selection wins or not will be the only way most on here will judge your post.
Others may not want to give their way of doing things because it is what gives them an edge (don’t want others to know).
Value Is EverythingHi All,
Been in the wilderness and basically banned myself from all forums for a while……
had a nice email to take a look, so thought I would !!
For me its all about automation, theres no point looking at one thing and another and picking a good winner from a race if the next time you look at the same race and details you feel differently, dont feel like putting in the work and then pick a completely different horse to bet on.
-WEBS
IMO In sprints the race is ran in the first furlong.The energy the horse has to use to get up to race speed x track x going. That’s why when horses go up in class they cant keep up.Speed of thought and early pace.
I was hoping to get more join in here but I think it just shows how many people are really interested or really know anything about race form.I think that’s why the virtual crap does so well.
Is there much between grades in sprints Placemat? For example, it seems easier for top sprint handicappers to break in to group class in sprints than any other distance.
Think people don’t join in with threads like this is because they’re on a hiding to nothing. You can’t win. Just look at the response to my earlier post. Whatever you say is likely to be derided without coming up with explanations to why. It may be done in a light-hearted way but does not encourage debate, or encourage others to put their opinions to the test.
Although hving said that, working out one race will give a false impression of someone’s ability, win or lose. So means little. I know you’re really asking how people do things; but sadly, whether the selection wins or not will be the only way most on here will judge your post.
Others may not want to give their way of doing things because it is what gives them an edge (don’t want others to know).
To answer the first point.IMO the reason for sprinters going up in grades is basically because most horses can run fast times in sprints given the opportunity too(as the race is always dependant on the early pace).You get a horse that wins several slow races with fast times ,goes up the grades, only because of the lack of real early pace the races they are in.Hope that males sense.
luck can manifest its self at any point.Look at the guy on here that backed the winner of the big sprint at Goodwood ante post.If that horse was drawn on the wrong side or it didn’t rain before hand ,he wouldn’t of won, plus the lack of real early pace in a sprint like that was a god send.If John Francome hadn’t of mentioned on the morning line that Goodwood moved the running rail Id of had more money on Joseph Henry instead of backing a horse to lay on the rail that had no chance of even getting close enough to lay at short odds.
As for what others think ,I really wouldn’t care about that, nor should anybody else.If you want to learn something off others you have to take a chance.
One race may not prove anything but if it gets people involved that can’t be bad can it?Hi All,
Been in the wilderness and basically banned myself from all forums for a while……
had a nice email to take a look, so thought I would !!
For me its all about automation, theres no point looking at one thing and another and picking a good winner from a race if the next time you look at the same race and details you feel differently, dont feel like putting in the work and then pick a completely different horse to bet on.
-WEBS
Webs please repeat so I can understand.I’m not sure what you are getting at.
I tipped up two bets yesterday somewhere here, Absinthe and a small poor bet why nee amy.
Absinthe won at 7.8 on betfair.
I think the hardest thing in form analysis is consistency!!
If a punter looks at two races and for example only has two pieces of data.
Race1 horse A speed rating 90, weight 122lbs, price 2.2
horse B speed rating 70, weight 116lbs, price 1.8if he thinks, great the fastest horse is at 2.2, I’ll back that !!!
Then he looks at another similar race like this.
Race2 horse A speed rating 90, weight 122lbs, price 2.2
horse B speed rating 70, weight 116lbs, price 1.8Great the lightest horse should win, well 1.8 seems a good price.
Then hes not keeping his selection and price process consistent.
To me, the selection process has to be automated, too many times has my system given me a bet when I think I could pick a better bet in the same race.
When humans get involved the heart rules the head, or the head isn’t having a good day or your chasing a loss then the process goes out the window.
I like to have an automated way of approaching a race. it also cuts down on time !!! which is something we never have enough of.
-WEBS
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