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Form is not "PROVEN" unless it is against older horses.

Home Forums Horse Racing Form is not "PROVEN" unless it is against older horses.

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  • #19170
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26668

    Reading some of the stuff about Frankel and Canford Cliffs – It seems some never rate three year old or two year old form.

    Surely every horse that has run has form?

    Whether a horse is a two year old or three year old or older horse, it is possible to rate all individuals.

    Three year olds can be rated on how good it is against the three year olds he/she’s met. In the same way any older horse can be rated against the other older horses and three year olds he/she’s met.

    Therefore it is possible to give a rating to any three year old on its perfomances and possible to give a rating to any older horse on theirs.

    It might be "easier" to come to a rating for the older brigade, because they have more form to their name and usually more exposed. But to say a three or two year old’s form is not "proven", when it has beaten Group winners by a street / put up a remarkable time – is surely wrong?

    All that matters is what rating each individual racehorse has put up, whether against purely two, three or four year olds.

    value is everything
    #364575
    srusling
    Member
    • Total Posts 11

    I am always a believer in a horse is only as good as what its beaten. Times in racing are very fickle and tactics plays a huge part so they cannot be taken on face value. Frankel is clearly the best of his generation and is dominant.The question is "Is his generation any good?". CC has raced against other generations than his own and is a proven out and out and class horse. Frankel may well be a world beater and is very likely to come out and win the sussex comfortably, but until he does, he is not proven against anyone other than his own age. It’s like winning the U21 world cup. You are clearly very good but to be called a superstar you have to beat everyone.

    On this subject I find it hard to believe that Frankel is leading the horse of the year awards. He is clearly champion 3 year old but he hasn’t met the likes of CC and SYT. And is TF rating is equal to SYT, thats crazy for all the reasons outlined above. I am in no way disputing Frankel’s ability and I am a huge fan. He could turn out to be one of the greats, but to say he is the equal of SYT is predicting the future instead of reviewing what has actually taken place.. As I said, I am in no way saying frankel isn’t a star, because he is, i just would like to see him win a race against open class proven group 1 horses. Then we can start to talk horse of the year awards

    #364584
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Every day I am putting on all age pars to my Speed Ratings so I can tell what horses have potentially run to and whether it’s possible for them to step up into all age company i.e Frankel on the 27th will be :D

    #364593
    Kris Diesis
    Member
    • Total Posts 126

    On 16th October 2010 Red Jazz, a very smart Grp2 class horse, beat a strong field of other Group horses, next 3 home were Cat Junior, Main Aim and Delegator. They were rated 120, 113, 111, 121, all well exposed Grp2/3 class. The race "Challenge Stakes" 7f, so race was at the optimum trip or very close to optimum trip for them. Red Clubs carried 9st 1lb being a 3 year old, the other’s being older carried 9st 3lb. The race was run in 1m 26.04, a reasonable time on G/S ground.
    In the next race over same course and distance, Frankel carried the same weight as Red Jazz, was hampered, pulled like a tank until half way, went clear to win hands & heels in 1m 25.73!
    I’m no handicapper and I haven’t looked up the WFA scale, but it would appear Frankel put up an astonishing performance. At least he has "PROVEN" to be a vastly superior animal than other "PROVEN" very high class horses.
    Or am I looking at it too simplistically?

    #364597
    Jonibake
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4277

    It works both ways no? Older horses have no form against the 3 yr olds. Best to wait and see I think but can’t see any reason to think that this years crop aren’t a decent crop.

    Before the Dewhurst last year the talk was of it being a vintage year. Frankel has been so dominant that it has led some to thinking that it is a poor year. It MIGHT just be that Frankel is a once in a lifetime horse. Not long now to find out!

    "this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"

    #364600
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26668

    , but until he does, he is not proven against anyone other than his own age. It’s like winning the U21 world cup. You are clearly very good but to be called a superstar you have to beat everyone.

    And is TF rating is equal to SYT, thats crazy for all the reasons outlined above. I am in no way disputing Frankel’s ability and I am a huge fan. He could turn out to be one of the greats, but to say he is the equal of SYT is predicting the future instead of reviewing what has actually taken place.. As I said, I am in no way saying frankel isn’t a star, because he is, i just would like to see him win a race against open class proven group 1 horses. Then we can start to talk horse of the year awards

    With respect srusling, it is nothing like "winning the U21 World Cup". It is very, very rare that any U21 footballer is as good as the very best players of the main team.
    Frankel has already put up a performance better than most, if not all older horses. He is already at least on a parr with them.

    As Workforce had been when showing excellent form in the Derby as a three year old. As two year old Dream Ahead showed when winning the Middle Park. As Canford Cliffs showed when he won the Irish 2000 Guineas etc. But for some reason these younger horses still have to "prove" their ability.

    If the 2000 Guineas was open to older horses – and Canford Cliffs had taken part, giving weight for age – From all we know about his form, he’d have struggled to beat Dubawi Gold and Native Khan

    by as far as Frankel

    did that day. Of course Canford Cliffs has beaten better horses than those two in the past, but Frankel did not just beat them, he pulverised them by 6 lengths and 1/2 a length.

    Frankel’s TF rating is not just equal to SYT it is some way in front at the moment, more than "equal". Yes, you are disputing Frankel’s ability, he’s 10 lbs clear on TF ratings of Canford Cliffs. Now, I believe 10 lbs is too much, and I hope he’s recovered from a hard race in the St James’s Palace. But Canford Cliffs has just as much to "prove" as Frankel.

    value is everything
    #364620
    srusling
    Member
    • Total Posts 11

    In what way am I disputing his ability. All i have said is that he has not proven he is up there with the best horses in the world YET. Im not going to go guessing whether he is or not because i actually don’t know. He has not had the chance to prove it. Thats all this conversation is about . PROOF

    And maybe i was a bit harsh with the U21 comment but how do you know he is as good as the very best players.. There is no way anyone can know yet because there is no PROOF. There is a very good chance he is but the topic of this thread was proven form

    #364656
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26668

    In what way am I disputing his ability. All i have said is that he has not proven he is up there with the best horses in the world YET. Im not going to go guessing whether he is or not because i actually don’t know. He has not had the chance to prove it. Thats all this conversation is about . PROOF

    And maybe i was a bit harsh with the U21 comment but how do you know he is as good as the very best players.. There is no way anyone can know yet because there is no PROOF. There is a very good chance he is but the topic of this thread was proven form

    There is just as much "PROOF" of Frankel’s ability as there is Canford Cliffs, because he’s got the form in the book. The 2000 Guineas FORM is PROOF enough. We know how good Dubawi Gold and Native Khan are. We know Frankel put up an exceptional time performance. Therefore PROOF.

    value is everything
    #364911
    befair
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1158

    Frankel has been awesome, but to be a true great he needs to prove himself over the classic distances 10-12 furlongs, rather than a mile which, let’s face it, is less prestigious. The scale of prestige would go, middle-distance, mile, sprinters and some way at the bottom of the league, stayers. Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, Yeats were great in their own division, not great horses.

    #364912
    Ian
    Member
    • Total Posts 1415

    I’ve had way too much brandy so prpobabaly shouldn’t be posting now but Frankel will prove himself a legend whether he’s taking on 4yo’s, 5yo’s or a sports car. When you’re as good as he is sometimes the sheer brilliance over-rides substance of the form.

    People keep going on about the Sussx Stakes being a two horse race – it isn’t. If Queally doesn’t mess up its Frankel’s no question about it. Canford is one of the best milers of recent years but this horse is a complete freak (to win races based on his fractions he has to be.

    Sometimes the tried and tr4sted method of evaluation doesn’t come into it.

    If I’m wrong I’ll cry for days thats how certain I am in my judgement of this. Some people still don’t get just how good Frankel is!

    #365051
    Kris Diesis
    Member
    • Total Posts 126

    Frankel has been awesome, but to be a true great he needs to prove himself over the classic distances 10-12 furlongs, rather than a mile which, let’s face it, is less prestigious. The scale of prestige would go, middle-distance, mile, sprinters and some way at the bottom of the league, stayers. Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, Yeats were great in their own division, not great horses.

    Is not a mile a "classic" distance, for how long has 10F been a classic distance?

    What utter tosh! I personally think it’s time the international horse racing community stopped giving what seems to be preferential treatment to middle distance horses in terms of ratings.

    I think of equine milers akin to human 400m runners. i.e. able to sustain sprint like speed over double the distance. I have always thought (maybe erroneously), that a tip top miler would always beat all but the truly exceptional sprinters over 6f. For example I would expect Frankel to beat Dream Ahead anytime anywhere over 6F.

    I would certainly not expect Pour Moi, So You Think or Workforce to get anywhere close to Frankel, Canford Cliffs or Goldikova over a mile.

    I have a soft spot for milers a true blend of speed and stamina. The last Derby winner to beat a truly tip top miler in the Guineas, correct me if I’m wrong was probably Sir Ivor when he beat Petingo. Then Sir Ivor’s best trip was probably 10F although of course he showed top class form over 12F.

    #365053
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26668

    In my opinion the reason why Europeans don’t get many real top class sprinters these days is the bias towards milers. Trainers seem better at eeking out stamina to stay a mile. I believe there are many "milers" over the years that could have been Champion Sprinters. Unlike the Aussies, they are also reluctant to vary distances. It seems once a miler, only a miler these days. Even Paco Boy was only given one chance in the July Cup. Did best of those held up in a slowly run race trying to make up ground with at its fastest. Yet wrongly thought of as not quick enough. It is a shame we won’t see Canford Cliffs, Frankel etc at 6 furlongs.

    There are also a lot of 12 furlong horses which are not given the chance to excel at longer distances. Which is why we don’t get many real top class stayers.

    Dream Ahead is possibly the best sprinter we’ve had since Oasis Dream.

    There are exceptional horses at all distances. To think of eight, ten or twelve furlongs as having most top class horses is crazy. There can be brilliant equines at any distance.

    value is everything
    #365058
    Ian
    Member
    • Total Posts 1415

    I agree with Kris Diesis in as much as I believe milers to be the ultimate in a racehorse they have the best speed – stamina ratio. If you look at great milers Brigadier Gerard, Zilzal, El Gran senor they would’ve also been the best of the sprinters. El Gran Senor beat Chief Singer in the Guineas who went on to win the July Cup. Frankel is another example his Guineas run had him five lengths clear of sprinters on the same card over five furlongs. Top milers have incredible speed but also the stamina to see out a mile and further. These horses are usually top two year olds as well as they have the speed to be.

    These horses don’t really stay twelve furlongs but sometimes their sheer class enables them to win at that sort of trip i.e. The Brigadier, El Gran Senor. Frankel would’ve been the same had he run in the Derby I’m certain. Really exceptional horses.

    Sometimes you’ll get a middle distance horses that can win a Guineas – Nashwan, Sea The Stars but they wouldn’t have had the speed to beat sprinters.

    #365122
    Kris Diesis
    Member
    • Total Posts 126

    I agree with Kris Diesis in as much as I believe milers to be the ultimate in a racehorse they have the best speed – stamina ratio. If you look at great milers Brigadier Gerard, Zilzal, El Gran senor they would’ve also been the best of the sprinters. El Gran Senor beat Chief Singer in the Guineas who went on to win the July Cup. Frankel is another example his Guineas run had him five lengths clear of sprinters on the same card over five furlongs. Top milers have incredible speed but also the stamina to see out a mile and further. These horses are usually top two year olds as well as they have the speed to be.

    I remember back in 1979, there was a truly brilliant miler called "Kris", (see my avatar). Anyways there was also an outstanding older sprinter trained by Vincent O’Brien called Thatching. Thatching had won over 9F as a 3 year old, but the camp decided he was a sprinter at the start of his 4 year old campaign. He duly won the Duke of York, Cork & Orrery(Golden Jubilee) and The July Cup.

    The Ballydoyle team thought it was time to take on Kris in the Sussex or it could have been the Waterford Crystal Mile(Celebration Mile) but definitively Goodwood. I think I’m right, at the time I seem to recall Lester saying he would ride Thatching as he does in sprints and hope he gets home.

    Piggott set the pace on Thatching and by half way was asking for maximum effort, while Joe Mercer was cruising with a double handful on Kris who went on to win easily by 5L I think from Swiss Maid, Thatching weakened rapidly after Kris went by about 3 out and was beaten a very long way.

    The thing is, Thatching would not have beaten Kris over any trip that day. I am sure that there have been a number of outstanding milers that could have been champion sprinters Kris, Zilzal, Zafonic (if he hadn’t gone wrong) etc. I am struggling, perhaps Dancing Brave aside, to think of an exceptional European middle distance colt in the last 30 odd years that could have competed with that trio over a mile.

    #365142
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26668

    Some horses are out and out sprinters.
    Some horses are sprinter milers, capable of equally good form at either trip.
    Some are just milers.
    Some are equally as good at a mile or 10 furlongs, possibly 12f too.
    Some are 10 furlong specialists.
    Some are middle distance horses, good at 10 or 12 furlongs.
    Some are middle distance stayers.
    And some are stayers.
    And one is Bayardo.

    Whichever group a horse belongs to it can produce top class form. Whether it is Dayjur (sprinter), Chief Singer (sprinter miler)…. Ardross (middle distance stayer), Le Moss (stayer).

    Form can be graded at every distance. It’s possible to say a particular sprinter is better than a particular stayer, or vise versa, without the two ever meeting – as form lines link all groups. But no one group can ever be thought of as having a hoodoo over the rest.

    value is everything
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